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Recap of IPO Trading for June 21-25, 2021

June 27th, 2021

Quite a loaded week, so we’ve got a lot to review here… hope you all were able to take some nice wins… ok, let’s jump into it.

Full Truck Alliance (YMM) as expected, YMM’s huge float couldn’t sustain any kind of liftoff from the debut at $22.45, and the stock traded sideways and down throughout the day to bottom at $21.00 on Day one and currently trades at $20.00 even. This is a case example of why I generally avoid large float debuts.

Sprinklr (CXM) surprised me, with a terrible debut priced well below the IPO price of $16, opening at $14.68. Turns out this was a catalyst for a run up to $19.97 on Day 1, seemingly due in part to chat groups who started pumping the stock. It currently trades at $21.00 and would have been a nice play out of the gate. I passed on it, but will be looking for low-balled debut prices in the future, as we saw a similar pattern with ISPC the week before.

First Advantage (FA) kind of turned out as expected, with a debut at $19.85 and general downward trajectory out of the gate… it rallied to a very brief spike at $20.50, and currently trades at around $20.50. So no real pain here for anyone that played it, but you probably didn’t want your capital tied up in this one given the win opps presented later in the week.

Bon Natural Live (BON) I called this one out in the mid-week update, and it played out as I’d hoped, with a debut at $6.30 and a string of 2 upward halts that gave ample time to take profits in the $8.50 to $10.50 range. Classic low-float, semi-Stealth, Chinese IPO.

Bright Health Group (BHG) pretty sleepy as expected. Debuted at $17.20, went down from there, came back up to a high of 17.93. Not worth being tied up in this one given the other rockstars of the day.

Confluent (CFLT) was a hot name, but the IPO price got upsized and the debut premium was rather high. It still offered a win opportunity and little chance for a loss with a debut at $44.00 and an initial run up to $47.00. It dipped as low as $42.31 to give greedy bag holders a bit of heat —- or opportunistic day-traders a chance to re-load, before returning to the $45 level. Currently trading at $45.34, so a pretty safe trade however you played it. Also, a good example of why I don’t like to sell for a loss on Day 1 (or Day 2 for that matter).

Doximity (DOCS) proved it’s mettle, and lived up to the hype, with a debut at $41.17 that is still the low for the stock —- this was the classic winner for my trading strategy, and I went in with an oversized position on the debut, and rode it out to the end of day, selling a little bit before the peak of $53.89. Once it crossed $50 I was more than satisfied with my gains and locked in profits. Day 2 didn’t produce any kind of substantial run from there, dropping below $49 momentarily before recovering to $53. Pretty hard not to be happy with this one, provided you bought in on the debut, or at any point for that matter.

Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) debuted at $22 and after an immediate spike to $23.77, backed down to the $21.50-$22.00 range where it stayed until another brief spike up to the $23.70s… it was all downhill from there though. Hard to predict the movement of these biotechs, and minimal upside, so as usual, I passed.

GROVE INC (GRVI) another one I called out in last week’s mid-week update, like it, but was tied up in playing BON and setting my orders for DOCS… nearly jumped in when GRVI dropped from the debut price of $5.00 down to a floor at $4.50, but took a flier. Wasn’t too regretful when it leveled out in the $4.80-4.90 range, or even when it ran up to around $5.50 at the end of the day. But then the real fireworks started, and it jumped in after hours and ran up to a high of $9.37 in the opening minutes of Day 2. Hate it when I’m right and don’t follow my instincts. Oh well… gonna miss a few (wouldn’t be the only call I’d miss this week either).

Miromatrix (MIRO) was another runner that I had to miss as I was playing BON and focused on DOCS, though it did give debut buyers a bit of an initial scare with an open at $12 and immediate drop to $11.00 before embarking on a monster climb to a peak at $16.00

Acurx (ACXP) thew me off with an indication price well below the IPO price, which was raised to a debut at $5.95 just seconds before it opened for trading. This kept me from buying the debut, which was unfortunate, since it steadily climbed to $7.20 before leveling off at $7.00 for much of the afternoon. Social media groups continued started pumping it into a late run as high as $8.50, and it seems this could continue to gain momentum into Monday.

Mister Car Wash (MCW) opened at $18.90 and after shrugging off the high float that invited some early selling for a few minutes, began a sustained run up to a high of $21.83.

GH Research (GHRS) gave us a debut at $22.00 with a brief jump to $24.19 before falling quickly to a bottom at $20.22, a series of failed recoveries resulted in a bottom at $19.22, followed by yet another failed recovery to level out at $20.00 and no further opportunities to get out with a profit.

Graphite Bio (GRPH) another biotech that didn’t give much in the way of win-opportunities, GRPH debuted at $22.10 and briefly moved up to $23.00 before initiating a fall to $20.00 and then further to a bottom of $19.05 before settling out at around $20.25

Elevation Oncology (ELEV) not sure why anyone would have expected this one to perform, and it didn’t: debuting at $14.00 and pretty much dumping the whole time. The lesson again: don’t play obscure biotech IPOs.

Alpha Technova (TKNO) another mid-week addition: with a low float of just 5M shares and a profitable business model, this was a clear winner, but I didn’t expect it to run from the debut at $20.70 all the way up to a high of $27.64, and sold out far too early.

MissFresh (MF) This was perhaps the worst performing IPO I’ve ever seen. After first pricing way below range at $13, it then debuted at a pathetic $10.65. Thinking we might see a trend of under-priced debuts that rebounded continue, I decided to step into what turned out to be further disaster, as it steadily dropped all the way down to $8.12 with virtually no opportunity to catch an out. I’ll be bag holding this one into next week, and wondering how this one did so badly on so many levels.

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