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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for July 26 – July 30, 2021

July 27th, 2021

Forgive me for sending this out late, as I’m still on vacation, and there weren’t aren’t any notable IPOs until tomorrow, so I figured I had a little time to put this together. These will be a little brief, but rest assured, we’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming next week…

Duolingo (DUOL) – July 28, 2021 | 5.1M Shares
The leading educational app on Google Play and the Apple app store has some impressive numbers including 129% Year-over-year growth and 40M monthly active users across 40 languages. They’ve gone with a high listing price that has already been increased from the initial range of $85-95 to an expected range of $95-100. Offsetting this is a low float of just $5M shares, which looks a lot like the MNDY debut. MNDY debuted at a significant premium to the IPO price, ran slightly off the open and then crashed hard down to just above the IPO price. I would be cautious about buying DUOL off the debut, but any significant early dip could be a great opportunity to catch a strong rebound rally.

Snap One (SNPO) – July 28, 2021 | 13.8M Shares
Wholesale vendor of smart home products with growing revenue and gross profits and operating profits. Market is a little cold these days, so I’m not sure this one will get much attention. I’d probably sit it out, but it could do well and is unlikely to bomb, so maybe worth a play if you can actively manage the trade.

Dole (DOLE) – July 28, 2021 | 26M Shares
The banana and pineapple company – strong brand name recognition, but pretty sleepy revenue growth. Will retail investors be excited about buying in? I’m not so sure, and wouldn’t expect it to get the kind of pump that DNUT got a few weeks ago. Watch the debut price, and if it goes live below the IPO price, it could make a solid movement to refill the gap, otherwise, it’s probably not going to get much attention.

Context Therapeutics (CNTX) – July 28, 2021 | 1.5M Shares
Super low float biotech. Other than the low float, this one is a pass for me, as I’m not gonna be at my desk and able to watch this one closely enough. If you do trade it, you’re looking for an opening halt off the debut, and if it doesn’t come, you’ll probably want to get out at a non-loss if possible. A big dip off the debut is equally likely, and would offer a potential entry for a recovery that could take the whole day to play out. Watch for a spike or run at the turn of power-hour (3:00 PM EST) or in the closing minutes.

Project Angel Parent (MLNK) – July 28, 2021 | 12M Shares
Cloud-based SAAS for providing banks with digital lending tools – MeridianLink.com is the face of the brand. Sounds a lot like BLND to me, which didn’t do all that well. I’m not sure many retail investors will be excited by this offering, so unless institutions get involved and buy more shares, I’m not sure this one will move much in either direction.

Robinhood (HOOD) – July 28, 2021 | 55M Shares
This is the main IPO event of the week, and perhaps of the month. The once beloved trading platform has been a hit with the younger trading crowd, though it’s taken quite a bit of heat ever since the GME trading halts quelled the epic social media fueled short-squeeze earlier this year. Congress and the SEC have been sniffing around, and threats to curtail HOOD’s largest revenue source – payment for order flow – would drastically impact the company’s bottom line. They also attributed a significant amount of revenue to Dogecoin trading, which may have been a passing fad. Regardless the company makes tons of money and is valued at a fraction of its peer’s.

They have pledged to commit 20-30% of the IPO stock to retail traders on their trading platform, and that is a huge wildcard in this debut. My question is: who will be buying this on the debut? Non-Robinhood retail traders on other platforms? Investment bankers that didn’t get full allocations? Hedge funds not wanting to miss out? I dunno, there’s a lot of negative chatter on the social threads, especially in Reddit groups, looking for how to short this IPO (pretty hard, if not impossible to borrow shares to short on an IPO), so there’s a lot of hatred in this one. If the debut price carries a large premium, I’d stay out of it entirely, and given the unknown variables, will just watch this one from the sidelines.

Muliang (MULG) – July 28, 2021 | 10M Shares
A Chinese fertilizer company that has postponed its IPO several times since the turn of the year, the main factor in this one is that it is a Boustead Securities IPO. Actually, it’s an uplisting, but trading has been suspended since October 2020 when they initially announced the intention of uplisting to the NASDAQ. I dunno, I hate to miss out on a Bousted debut, but it will be the last day of my vacation, and I won’t be able to sit there to monitor the pre-debut indication price, and don’t want to be glued to my phone if it does start halting one way or the other. I may end up getting sucked into playing this one if it does align with my schedule for the day and the debut price looks appealing. Here’s roughly how I’d be gauging the indication price:

The IPO price is set at $4.00
– IF we see a debut price in the $5.00 – $9.00 range, I’d be pretty cautious, and likely would wait and see if we get a drop off the open before taking a position, if any at all.
– IF we see a debut price in the $10-20 range, it would be very tempting to buy in off the debut and expect 1-2 halts or even more.
– IF we see a debut price above $20, I’d be pretty skeptical, and definitely would sit out if we see anything ridiculous, like $30 or above.

This one looks highly risky to me. It’s not the usual Stealth-IPO setup, but could just as easily be one of these wacky low-float Chinese IPOs that runs up to $70 or more.

TGPX (COOK) – July 29, 2021 | 23.5M Shares
This is Traeger Grills: a leading manufacturer of premium outdoor barbecues boasts revenue and increasing profitability, with comps to pool company SWIM and high end dinnerware company YETI, which have both performed well since their IPOs. Americans love to barbecue, and we love our grills. This one stands to do well off the Day 2 media cycle, and appears to be a strong IPO.

Preston Hollow Community Capital (PHCC) – July 29, 2021 | 10.5M Shares
This company provides project finaning to projects of significant social and economic importance. I don’t quite understand what that means, and doubt that many retail investors will be all that interested in this one. Maybe it gets significant institutional backing, but since I’m not sure, I’d site this one out.

Riskfield (RSKD) – July 29, 2021 | 17.5M Shares
Risk minimization services for ecommerce companies – security IPOs have done pretty well, and this company combines machine learning with anti-fraud: so two buzz words that appeal to all investors. They are also generating very low operating losses while producing rapid growth (53.9% in the 3 63.9%ending March 31, 2021) and expanding gross profit (63.9%). This one looks pretty solid to me.

Aspire Global (ASPG) – July 29, 2021 | 15M Shares
OEM for vaping products: a Chinese manufacturer that sells primarily to USA and Canada. I’m pretty bearish on anything Chinese related these days, unless it’s low float, Stealth, or otherwise being underwritten by one of the financial teams that has produced a multi-halt runner. This isn’t one of those, so I’ll pass.

Clarios International (BTRY) – July 30, 2021 | 88M Shares
A leading low-voltage battery company with many institutional investors who are rumored to want to buy more shares. Free cash flow and stable revenue growth, this one may be somewhat boring, but unlikely to crash, with the possibility that it steadily climbs throughout the day. Worth a play perhaps, but might be better to watch how it opens before jumping in.

Teads (TEAD) – July 30, 2021 | 38.5M Shares
A spin-off from Altice International – this is their programmatic ad platform for advertisers and publishers. Whether this will perform like a TradeDesk is yet to be seen, but recently spin-offs haven’t performed all that well right off their debut. If you like this company, watch for a hard drop off the debut and then consider a position once it bottoms out. To me, spin-offs and uplistings are a difficult read, so I prefer not to buy them off the debut, but they are worth watching for a rebound play.

Intelligent Living Application Group (ILAG) – July ??, 2021 | ??M Shares
This one’s on stealth watch, after announcing a price target last week and that it’s a Network 1 Financial IPO. If they suddenly appear on the calendar and the debut price isn’t insane, this could be the low-float stealth IPO we’ve been looking for.

NOTE: I’m not a financial advisor, and this isn’t financial advice: just information. I may take a position in one or more of these securities within the next 72 hours. No one has paid me for this article or for my opinions, and you should assume that any investment in the stock market is risky. Best of luck.

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