IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for October 3 – October 7, 2022

October 6, 2022

Well, after LASE basically crapped the bed in it’s rather well-structured IPO last week, it seems that we have no IPOs on the calendar this week. Though we’d hoped for ALPX to debut (I mean, perhaps “hope” isn’t really applicable since there was nothing particularly enticing about that offering), it appears to have been pushed due to lack of interest from investors.

So… for the time being, I’m looking at some Lockup Expiration setups for Chinese Stealth deals that were done about 5 months ago with LPX dates coming at the end of the month, and scalping some day trades here and there on early pre-market headlines.

These setups and more are continuously discussed everyday in our active trading community in the IPOWarriors Discord Channel
Live IPO trading and commentary on upcoming IPOs will be reserved for Premium Members within the #premium-members-room, but currently, there is a plethora of winning call-outs being made on a daily basis by regular contributors to the group (which includes some highly followed and well-known Twitter accounts with expertise in chart reading, SPACs, options trading, and more).


This Week’s IPOs:

  • Nothin’


Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:

Most IPOs are subject to either 90 or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.
Conversely, with low-float IPOs, we often see press releases and other announcements dropped going into, or slightly following LPX, presumably as insiders attempt to drive up the share price before they are able to exercise their warrants and sell their shares.


Here are the LPX setups I’m watching to potentially patiently build positions.Most of these are previous Chinese Stealth IPOs sitting at relatively low prices. The risk here is that they are duds and don’t make any kind of run into LPX. Those at the $2.00 mark can relatively easily drop down to the $0.80 level, but we’ve also seen them run as high as $20+ (HUDI SOPA). The bigger risk is that they simply take too long to pan out and you end up watching them bleed out – once we get about 2 weeks past the LPX, you gotta manage your downside with stop-losses: ideally above entry, which is why I start patiently bottom-feeding on these a few weeks ahead of LPX.
We also see these sometimes take much longer than expected; see BEAT, which finally ran this past week or so: there were a lot of long-term bag-holders in that one that finally got an out – and holding past the initial pop-day is not as easy as it sounds.

Another approach is to simply be aware of these as potential LPX movers, and if you see one of them pop up on a pre-market scanner, check to see if there’s a news headline: even a fluffy PR drop can get these moving pretty hard.

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