The theme of the past few weeks in IPO land has been to reschedule new offerings while pumping the low float tickers from the past year, and this past week was no exception. NA, VRAX, WLDS, and ONFO have all been moved back to next week (and are all still available on WeBull as of Friday’s close. There was one sneaky spin-off IPO, which managed to elude my scanners and is not a setup I typically trade: while it looked particularly profitable on paper, the reality is that only a tiny number of shares were traded until it had already reached a relatively neutral risk-reward level.
So while there hasn’t been much movement in new IPO debuts, the action in recently debuted IPOs has intense, which we expected given the deluge of recent IPOs that have hit or are approaching their 90 and 180-day lockup expiration (“LPX”) dates. For more insights on how to trade these opportunities, I highly recommend you follow Aly Angel on Twitter, and watch her guides.
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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:
United Maritime Corporation (USEA) – July 6, 2022 | 1.5M Shares
IPO Price: N/A
Debut Price: $1.00
Day 1 High: $4.85
Day 1 Low: $0.80
High Since Debut: $10.11
Low Since Debut: $0.80
Day 1 Action: One thing that makes these setups nearly impossible to trade, is that they do not participate in a normal IPO pre-debut indication/balancing: they simply start trading at 9:30 AM EST on the day they debut, with the opening trade commencing whenever a buyer and seller pair their orders. This one started at $1.00 an immediately halted down to $0.80 on 154 shares traded (yes, tiny volume, so before you go having wild fantasies of loading up on USEA at $0.80, consider that the total order value of the opening minute before the halt was somewhere around $100 or so). It opened up from the halt at $2.67, and quickly halted again up to $3.06 on just over 2k shares, and again halted from $3.50 to $3.77 on 6k shares on the way up to an open at $4.70 before peaking at $4.5 and finally trading fluidly for most of the remainder of the day: albeit on low volume, with large spreads, and choppy moves from a trough that bottomed at $2.23 on the pullback from the initial spike, to a rebound back up to $3.73 and a trail off for the remainder of the day to as low as $2.37 before closing at $2.90. At this point, some savvy traders had built positions for a possible Day 2 rally… those that did were kindly rewarded. Many likely sold into the after-hours rally as it ran up as high as $4.76 and was clearly poised to make a run on Day 2.
Day 2 Action: Day 2 started out relatively quiet in the early pre-market window of 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM EST, but once the 7:00 AM EST brokers opened up their trading desks, the show came out in force on this one, as it launched a momentus rally that peaked at $8.79 before the market opened for regular trading hours, and pumped further to a Day 2 high at $8.89 before the 10:00 AM EST mark. With wild fluctuations in the $6.00 to $8.70 range holding throughout the day, where is was going next was anybody’s guess.
Looking Ahead: Day 3 brought further upside in pre-market trading, reaching the all-time-high of $10.11 just before 7:30 AM EST before selling off into the normal market hours to a bottom at $6.65 with a return to VWAP at the end of the day and a close on Friday at $7.50, it may appear that this one has stabilized around the $6-7 mark. But with what is clearly a tiny float and a target for day traders, algos, and pumpers, the potential for this one to spike up to further levels on the upside is severely tempered by a high likelihood that this gets dumped at any moment. I’m not sure where to look for guidance on where this ‘should’ trade, but might look at the PE ratio of 5.22 per Stock Analysis as relatively high compared to OP and DSX (two shipping companies with EPS of 0.01 and 0.93 respectively – not coincidentally, OP was a spin-off from DSX that is now being re-acquired by DSX after an IPO that produced equally volatile results).
My guess is this one ends up in the $1 bin, but don’t know how high it might spike before it gets there.
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Recent IPO Runners:
We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.
For Expert Commentary and Trading Insights on LPX plays, follow Aly Angel: Twitter: https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides! https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides
Maris Tech (MTEK)
Catalyst: Purchase order from SpaceIL
Type: IPO
IPO Date: February 2, 2022
IPO Price: $5.25
LPX Date: June 2, 2022 (based on 120 day lockup)
LPX Period: 120 days
Historical LPX Notes: Recent breakout topped previous spikes on purchase order news events on June 9, 2022 and June 29, 2022.
Outstanding Shares: 7.82M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $1.18
High of the Day on vol: $2.09
Recap: MTEK has been on watch ever since it hit LPX and a string of purchase order headlines have failed to produce anything more than modest pops from the baseline of $1.10 to tops in the $1.50 to $2.00 range. This recent news delivered the most dramatic run so far, and the stock has manged to show some resilience off the pull-back, possible due to a delayed squeeze and attention being drawn into the recent low-float IPO setup.
Looking Ahead: Day traders, algos. and pumping activity remains on this ticker, with a volume profile that is largely concentrated under the $2.00 mark. If it can break through that level on substantial news, then it could soar. Otherwise, I have to believe it drops as volume dissipates as shorts limit upside movement.
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Inspira Technologies (IINN)
Catalyst: New device announcement followed by purchase order announcement
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 14, 2021
IPO Price: $5.25
LPX Date: IPO LPX already expired. However, a POS AM filing on April 14, 2022 provided additional underwriter warrants that are locked up for 6 months
LPX Period: 180 days
Historical LPX Notes: Recent breakouts on contract news have failed to deliver runs nearly as high as the initial purchase order news on October 16, 2021 (which coincided with a 90 day LPX).
Free Float: 7.4MOutstanding
Shares: 10.65M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $1.24
High of the Day on vol: $2.65
Recap: IINN has been on watch ever since it’s IPO and subsequent skyrocketing run back in October 2021, with several pops since then: generally on new product developments and purchase order news. This stock seems to be loaded with potential catalysts, and is a company I have continued to load up on and cash out profits when it runs and then recedes. (Disclosure, I am currently holding a substantial long position in this, but have taken some profits on last week’s jump and am holding a longer position in both commons and warrants which is currently in the red).
Looking Ahead: Day traders, algos. and pumping activity remains on this ticker, with a volume profile that is has a large concentration of positions in the $2.10 to $2.50 range, and another cluster of positions in the $3.00 +/-$0.50 and yet another cluster in the $5.00-6.00 range. While there are many bag holders caught in this one, this stock has become somewhat of a cult favorite, with many believing that the true catalyst of FDA approval for their primary product expected in 2023 will deliver a significant financial windfall opportunity (I am one of those, but have sold and reestablished my position in common shares several times on runs, and plan to continue this strategy going forward.With the addition of a new product line, we are likely to see further distribution/purchase order headlines over the next couple of month, along with FDA submissions for their ECLS device in H1 2023 looming in the near future, this is one I like for continuously loading on dips and selling into rips.
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Other recent IPOs on the move:
Dermata (DRAM): Low: $0.46 | High: $0.87
Evofem (EVFM): Low: $0.86 | High : $1.57
American Rebel (AREB): low: $070 | High: $1.75
Heartcore (HTCR): low $2.31 | High: $3.07
For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link
