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IPO Trading Review for the Week of July 26 – 30, 2021

August 1st, 2021

Remember to catch me live on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep tomorrow at 9:00 AM EST to recap last week’s winning IPO trades and preview the IPO calendar for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76Q1PQjRTTo

Duolingo (DUOL): after raising their IPO pricing range by about $10, DUOL debuted at a substantial premium ($141.40) that left little room for further gains, with two brief spikes to $145 in the opening 5 minutes before a steady decline down to a bottom of $130 later in the day. If you risked a bottom feeder play at $130, as we suggested in our approach strategy on this one, you were rewarded with an opportunity to exit around $138 at the end of the day, and bag holders were given an opportunity to exit at the end of Day 3 as the stock reached $141.40 before closing the week at $140.25

Snap One (SNPO) was typical of last week’s potential winners, with little downside and only a minor win opportunity as it debuted at $16.00 and dipped down to $15.26 in the opening minutes before rebounding and stabilizing in the $16 zone for most of Day 1, with a slight rise above $16.50 in the closing hour of Day 1. Day 2 saw the stock mount a steady climb that was sustained throughout the day into the $17.80 area, within striking distance of $18, and Day 3 saw more of the same, with a breakout to $18.50 and the hint of further gains to possibly come next week as it closed at $18.05. Nothing too exciting, but a solid 10%+ win opportunity for those who held on.

Dole (DOLE) was rather uneventful, as expected, and not worth the risk as it opened at $15.18 and pretty much dropped from there down to a bottom of $14.50, with a bit of swing plays between $14.50 and $15.30. Not enough to offer up a tasty day trade range, with a hard drop off at the end of the day to a $14.50 close.

Icosovax (ICVX) was not even on the calendar at the start of the week, and was nearly impossible to predict, given that it debuted at $26 and spent the opening 7 minutes dropping to a bottom at $23. Then all of a sudden, the story changed, and the stock shot up through a halt at $32 to a top at $49.99. I don’t generally play biotechs, and this one really picked up steam out of nowhere, but NOT chasing proved to be a wise strategy, as the stock did nothing but fall of the peak and continued its downward progression into a Day 2 close at $24.85

Project Angel Parent (MLNK) not much to talk about here: an uninsteresting play from the start that debuted at $26.75 and dropped throughout Day 1, appeared to stabilize a bit on Day 2 at $24.50, but then dropped further on Day 3 to close the week at $23.74

Robinhood (HOOD) in one of the most anticipated IPOs of the year, Robinhood suffered the same fate as many overly-hyped IPOs and failed to deliver much retail interest on the open at $38.00. After a failed initial run up to $40.22 on the open, this one fell off a cliff to a bottom of $33.35 before rebounding as high as $38.10, giving savvy debut buyers a chance to bail at a non-loss, as clearly many did. HOOD then dropped to trade sideways at a false-base of $36 before dropping further at the end of the day to $35. Day 2 staged a bit of a comeback towards $37.00, but it ended up closing the week at $35.15. As I had forecast at the start of the week, this was not an IPO to get excited about.

TGPX (COOK) proved to be a safe bet, as it debuted at $22.00 and climbed as high as $23.74 in the opening 15 minutes, before dropping to the $22.20-$22.80 range, before closing the day at $22.00. This isn’t a bad trade to take, because the downside was limited, and the upside, though not all that exciting, gave a rather stress-free opportunity to pick up $1 point throughout the first day, with no loss positions if you chose to hold for a possible run.

Riskfield (RSKD) was pretty similar to COOK, in that the debut price at $27.10 was followed by a steady run up to $29.18, which allowed for a trailing stop to be set at $28 to allow for a further run or the opportunity to get take $1 win and close down your trade. Though RSKD did give some heat to stubborn diamond handed traders, as it dropped as low as $25.29 in after hours, it has rebounded quickly from each dip and traded throughout much of Day 2 in the $27-28 range for a comfortable exit without much to brag about on the upside, but no reason to have any wounds to lick on the downside.

RxSite (RXST) another late-addition, this one did not present a very compelling reason to play it other than loose comparisons to SGHT that did rather well the week before. After a slight drop of the $17.50 debut, it ran as high as $18.67 before reverting back to the $17.50 zone for about an hour before dropping off to a bottom of $15.51. Though it recovered back to $16.50, and offered a brief reprieve to bag holders with a later run above $17.50, it then fell off to close the day at $16.00

Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) was a prototypical example of why I avoid random biotechs, with a debut at $18.50 and nothing but downside from there, closing the day at $15.35.


Immuneering (IMRX)
another one that was best avoided: debuted at $19.50, dropped to a low of $16.10, and barely clawed its way back to $18.50 before closing the day at $17.59. Only real move on these trades is to try an pick a bottom and play the rebound for $1-2 wins at best. Perhaps something for antsy traders to think about on slow days and random IPOs, but can be more risk than they’re worth.

Remember to catch me live on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep tomorrow at 9:00 AM EST to recap last week’s winning IPO trades and preview the IPO calendar for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76Q1PQjRTTo

NOTE: This is not trading advice, nor is it financial advice, nor is this health or fitness advice, I am not a doctor, nor am I a financial advisor and this information is meant for informational purposes. I may hold, or take positions in the equities mentioned in this article within the next 72 hours.

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