IPO Trading Review for the Week of July 19 – 23, 2021

July 25th, 2021

So I’m still in the middle of my vacation, and only played a few IPOs last week from my mobile while (trying to be) relaxing on the beach… gonna keep these rather short, but will be reviewing next week’s IPOs, including the much anticipated Robinhood (HOOD) IPO in greater detail in tomorrow’s Benzing Pre-Market Prep channel as well as in tomorrow’s Weekly IPO Preview newsletter.

Watch me live tomorrow – Monday July 26, 2021 at 9:00 AM EST on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep:

So let’s go through some of these:

HCW Biologics (HCWB) Debuted at a rather ambitious price of $7.50 and showed why random biotechs that are offered to general retail traders on WeBull (via ClickIPO) can be dangerous. Those who received IPO allocations seem to have sold off en masse, as the price spent the opening 30 minutes of trading establishing new lows before finally bottoming out at $5.91. It never rallied, and punished those who held out for the hope of a Day 2 rally with further losses to a current all-time-low of $4.27. The stock closed Friday’s session at $5.19 (GAMB) kept getting pushed back throughout the week, and by the time it came to market with a significantly reduced price tag and lower float, it seems that traders got a bit discouraged. Still, there was enough interest to offset an initial drop from the opening price of $8.25 to with a rebound rally to $8.75 before steadily declining back into negative territory. I managed to rally back to close the week at $8.00, giving bag holders reason to hope for the chance to exetit on Monday with a non-loss or possible win if it can finally get some momentum.

Twin Vee PowerCats (VEEE) even with an ultra-low float and buzz-worthy product line, this one wasn’t really expected to deliver a multi-halt run off the debut, and gave debut buyers a bit of a scare early on, as it tanked from an opening trade of $6.70 down to a bottom of $5.75. Once the low-float kicked in, it steadily rose into a close of $7.35 and an after-hours run up to $8.08. Anyone who missed the opportunity to sell for a profit on Day 1 paid the price with the Day 2 rally posting a no-show, and the stock has traded sideways in the $5.50 to $6.20 range since then. Bag holders might consider holding on for some kind of positive headline to give VEEE a spike before they sell out: won’t take much for this to run on a 2.8M share float, and some trading group is likely to key in on it and give a profitable exit to those who bought on the debut.

CS Disco (LAW) my lackluster expectations for this one were fulfilled, as it debuted at $45.50 and dropped as low as $39.95 with brief recoveries that failed at or below $45.00. It has managed to climb back up to $45.18 right before Friday’s closing bell, so bag holders may be able to salvage a non-loss or even a win if things pick up this week.

Kaltura (KLTR) As long as you didn’t panic and sell this one when it dove off the $11.50 debut to a bottom of $10.19, you have likely either sold out for a non-loss or even a small gain, as this one managed to rebound off the initial dip pretty quickly, and has established $11.50 as a bottom to multiple dips since then, with a high of $12.02. Were I stuck in this one at $11.50, I’d probably set a Sell Limit Order at $11.95 and take a small win and get my money back.

Paycor (PYCR) gave debut buyers a rather straightforward opportunity to take a small win with a trailing stop loss, as it debuted at $28, and climbed over the initial 7 minutes to reach a high of $30.19 before falling back to VWAP before attempting a second run. However, that run could not sustain, and greedy traders were forced to eat humble pie as it fell as low as $24.00 before recovering in Day 2 at base of $27.00. It’s trades between $26 – 27.50 since then. I would probably take an exit at $28.00 if given the opportunity, and if something else came along that looked more exciting, would cut ties wherever I had to to get out of this with a small loss rather than keep my money tied up.

AbSci Corp (ABSI) turned out to be a decent little trade if you took it at the $21.00 debut and kept your expectations reasonable. It peaked at $22.65 off the opening run, and reached as high as $23.94 on Day 2 without ever dropping significantly below the debut price. If you liked this one for a scalp, you’ve got some cushion to see if it climbs further, but would be wise to set a stop loss to lock in profits or at least protect from taking a loss if it turns around the other way.

Instructure Holdings (INST) failed to deliver any hype after rinning the bell on the NYSE and debuting at a rather small premium price of $23.50, though it does seem that the underwriters milked as much profit as they could in the debut premium, as the stock immediately fell to a bottom of $21.21 before attempting a run that was thwarted at $23.48 which fell off to $20.16 and has since traded sideways in the $20-21 range. Maybe COVID fears escalate in the next week or so and stay-at-home stocks rally to give INST a boost, but otherwise, if you’re stuck in this one, you might want to consider cutting losses if you get a run above $21.00

Zevia (ZVIA) gave us the play we expected, with a debut at $12.50 that ran up to $14.00 on Day 1 and spent much of Day 2 just above $14.00 with a letup at the end of the day to close the week at $13.77. This one might still have some juice in it, and seems comfortable to hover around the $14.00 level for the time being. Unless you’re holding this for a long play, I’d look to get out on any run above $14.50 to lock in a 2-point win… NOTE: I’m holding shares of this an will likely exit with a trailing stop-loss if it breaks $14.50

Ryan Specialty Group (RYAN) was one of two classically ‘boring institutional plays’ that offered substantial win opportunities (which I completely overlooked) – with a debut at $25.69 and an opening run that peaked at $28.43. Guess when the market is turbulent, and a solid institutional play comes in at a very reasonable price, the banks will buy in and push up the price, even with a large float.

Couchbase (BASE) gave debut buyers a bit of a scare off the open, as it debuted at $29.60 and steadily dropped to a bottom of $28. But things turned around quickly as the low float kicked in, and BASE ran up to a peak of $31.95 where it stabilized for the rest of the day, before making a power-hour run to peak at $33.12 about 30 minutes before the close. Day 2 brought the real fireworks out, as BASE made a top of $37.37 before falling off back to $32, before rebounding to the $34.00 – $34.50 range to close out the week.

Zenvia (ZENV) Delivered an unsurprising opening drop from the debut price of $10.35 to a bottom at $9.50, followed by an impressive run to a high of $11.20. That was about it though, as it has since stabilized right around the debut price. Like many other IPOs this past week, it made a lot more sense to buy off the opening drop, than the opening debut.

VTEX (VTEX) Offered a scary drop on Day 1 which validated my ‘don’t touch biotech IPOs’ rule as it opened at $25.21 and steadily dropped to a bottom of $22.11 towards the end of the day. Day 2 showed why my “don’t sell for a loss on Day 1” rule can save you; as it rallied back up to a high of $26.74 on Day 2, with further gains established on Day 3 at $27.43. While I wouldn’t likely hold on for a profit once I’d been stuck so far down in a position on Day 1, it is nice to see the Day 2 rally is alive an well.

Core & Main (CNM) was the second ‘boring institutional play’ that I overlooked. Debuted at $21.60, steadily climbed to the $24.00 level, and offered a very brief spike up to $25.86 for those who set a Limit Order and took their hands off the wheel.

Outbrain (OB) was relatively mundane, with a $20.00 opening and a high of $20.99 with a low of $19.90 —- not much room to make money, but unlikely that debut buyers lost any money on this one. We’ll see how it does next week.

Xponential Fitness (XPOF) likely benefited from Cramer pumping it the morning of the debut, opened at $11.25 and steadily rose throughout the day to touch just below $13 in power hour.


REMINDER: Watch me live tomorrow – Monday July 26, 2021 at 9:00 AM EST on Benzinga Pre-Market Prep:

NOTE: This is not trading or financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, and this is meant for informational purposes only. I may have existing positions in equities mentioned in this newsletter, and may take positions or exit positions in equities mentioned in this newsletter within the next 72 hours.

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