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IPO Trading Review for the Week of May 9, 2022 – May 13, 2022

IPO Trading Review for the Week of May 9, 2022 – May 13, 2022

May 13, 2022

In a week that started with panic-stricken sell-offs on Monday that carried into Tuesday, the outlook for pending IPOs appeared bleak. But by Friday’s turnaround, we saw conditions ripe for a mainstream IPO to offer a relatively easy debut trade setup, and a low-floater from one of or favorite lower-tier underwriters failed to perform as hoped (which was clear in the pre-debut imbalance).

Another concept that was re-enforced with the low-float IPO offering, which are commonly available on WeBull for pre-order, is that the IPO trading strategy I generally employ is NOT reliant on getting any shares allocated at the IPO price, and there’s a reason for this: mainly, that when I do get a full allocation, then it’s a bad sign for the opening. When I only get a small allocation of what I requested, that’s generally a good sign for demand. So the takeaway on this is not to request a large allocation regardless of what I think about the setup: and instead, read the pre-debut indication setup to determine my trading strategy.

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Catch me live at 12:00 PM EST (noon) on Benzinga Live to review last week’s winning IPO trade and preview the IPO Calendar for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku9m-LA5JJw

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) – May 11, 2022 | 1.36M Shares
IPO Price: $21.00
Debut Price: $21.44
Day 1 High: $22.00
Day 1 Low: $20.11
High Since Debut: $24.68
Low Since Debut: $20.11

Day 1 Action: On a day when the market was on its knees, HNVR bravely debuted and managed to open at $21.44 – slightly above the IPO price of $21.00, but after a quick pop to touch $22.00, it proceeded to slide down to a bottom of $20.28 in the opening minutes of trading: rather unusual volatility for a bancorp IPO, but given the ultra-low float, perhaps somewhat expected. It quickly rebounded back up to $21.98, and from there, it acted more like a typical bancorp IPO, trading in a relatively tight range of $21.00 to $21.40 until an unusual small print at the close dropped it to $20.11 on just 2.7k shares, so nothing too remarkable there.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 started out in a typical baseline at $21.20 but then abruptly triggered an uncharacteristic rally right after Noon EST, that shot the share price up as high as $24.68, but after a few minutes of choppy trading, it returned to trading in a tight zone of $21.20 to $21.70 for the remainder of the day.

Looking Ahead: This appears to have stabilized in the $21.00 to $22.00 range, as we would expect from a bancorp stock, with the float having risen to 6.5M shares. I don’t expect much volatility from here: at least, not anything predictable, and I generally don’t trade bancorp IPOs to begin with

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Actelis Networks (ASNS) – May 13, 2022 | 3.75M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $3.90
Day 1 High: $3.94
Day 1 Low: $2.60
High Since Debut: $3.90
Low Since Debut: $2.60

Day 1 Action: Full allocation requests on WeBull are rarely, if ever, a good sign for an IPO debut, and this was no exception. The pre-debut indication dropped to as low as $3.11 at a volume of roughly 350k shares, before a buyer jumped in for roughly 300k shares at $3.90 to pull the debut price out of the basement. Savvy allocation recipients dumped on the debut, sending the share price falling into a halt at $3.19 that opened lower at $2.79, and bottomed at $2.68 before reversing into a minor recovery run back up to $3.29. But the reversal was short lived, and it again returned to the $2.60 level before climbing back to $2.90 and after baselining around $2.80, fell again down to $2.60. It seems to have found some support at $2.60, as it returned above $2.80 before falling off into the close at $2.40

Day 2 Action: Day 2 is Monday, so we’ll have to wait for the weekend to see what comes.

Looking Ahead: Low float debuts that fall and fail to run on Day 1, often get accumulated and run on Day 2 or Day 3 by trading groups and algorithms. So at this point, the setup would be to wait for dips below $2.60 and build a position from there until we see a spike. These runs have varied momentum: but keep the $4.00 IPO price in mind as bag holders will look to dump anywhere near that level.

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ProFrac Holding Corp (PFHC) – May 13, 2022 | 16M Shares
IPO Price: $18.00
Debut Price: $17.60
Day 1 High: $18.90
Day 1 Low: $17.60
High Since Debut: $18.90
Low Since Debut: $17.60

Day 1 Action: After pricing the IPO at $18.00 – well below the anticipated range of $21.00 – $24.00, the weak pre-debut indication price that dropped to as low as $17.15 presented an relatively safe entry even as it climbed back up to $17.60 for the opening print. While such a setup for low-float IPOs from more dubious underwriters would indicate further downside, when have a mainstream offering underwritten by top-tier underwriters going live in rough market conditions, we typically see IPO pricing and debut pricing set at levels that are generally ‘kind’ to both institutional and retain traders. So when we see a debut that is more than 15% below the initial price range, we often see an easy upside move off the opening trade. We saw a similar setup with BLCO last week, which also set its range at $21-24, priced at $18, opened in the mid-$18s and ran to just over $20 on Day 1.
PFHC opened at $17.60 and moved steadily up to a high of $18.90, falling back to support around $18.40 before running into the end-of-day to touch a high of $19.45.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 is Monday, so we’ll have to wait for the weekend to see what comes.

Looking Ahead: Hard to tell what Monday will bring, but I expect support to remain at $17.60, and any dip significantly below that to rebound accordingly. If oil continues to rise, then Day 2 could bring more upside to this, bearing in mind that the original price range was as high as $24.00. If we happen to be on the doorstep of a rebound rally, then this one could move substantially higher from here, and has a relatively low float to boot.

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IPO Warriors IPO Preview for May 9 – May 14, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO Preview for May 9 – May 14, 2022

May 10, 2022

Over the past week, the market suffered it’s worst stretch since the beginning of the pandemic, yet IPO debuts continue to provide upside trading opportunities: especially mainstream IPOs willing to endure stormy market conditions, and low-float IPOs that debut under constrained volume.

Spotting debut trade opportunities in this market relies heavily on watching the pre-debut indication pricing and volume, where a high debut premium and low volume on the opening trade are the key indicators for low-float, lesser known IPOs, a more modest debut premium with a buy-side imbalance is a positive signal for any mainstream IPOs.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) – May 11, 2022 | 1.36M Shares

  • SaverOne (SVRE) – May 11, 2022 | 1.6M Shares

  • WYTEC (WYTC) – May 11, 2022 | 3.7M Shares

  • Bright Green Corp (BGXX) – May 11, 2022 | 158M Shares

  • SOS Hydration (SOSH) – May 12, 2022 | 1.8M Units

  • ProFrac Holding (PFHC) – May 12, 2022 | 16M Shares

  • Intrinsic Medicine (INRX) – May 12, 2022 | 4.16M Shares

  • Actelis Networks (ASNS) – May 13, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Innovative Eyewear (LUCY) – May 13, 2022 | 1.54M Shares

  • OKYO Pharma (OKYO) – May 13, 2022 | 961k Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

Hanover Bancorp (HNVR) – May 11, 2022 | 1.36M Shares
Price Range:
$21.00 – $23.00
Offering Size:
$36M
Shares Outstanding:
7.19M

Industry: Local Bank

Overview:
This is a regional bank serving the New York City metro area projected to pay a 1.8% dividend. Other than that, it’s simply a regional bank IPO.

Considerations: It’s a regional bank IPO – these are generally fairly priced and rarely offer much volatility on their debut, so I typically don’t trade them. Having said that, low-float IPOs have been targets for trading groups, and at 1.36M shares, the float is small enough to be considered ultra-low float. But with a share price above $20.00, it’s not really the setup that pumpers like to play.

Underwriters:
Stephens Inc.

IPO Classification:
Local Bank

Recent Similar IPOs: NSTS

Trading Strategy:
I don’t trade these – if you want to, then wait for a dip below VWAP and wait with a limit order on the buy side (don’t buy at market or at the Ask). Then sell at VWAP. Most likely a $0.20 winner type of play. Like I said, these rarely move much.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
None.

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SaverOne (SVRE) – May 11, 2022 | 2.5M Shares
Price Range:
$5.16
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
5.18M

Industry: Mobile App / Automotive Software

Overview:
This was rescheduled from last week, with an increased float from 1.38M shares to 2.5M shares along with a price reduction from $7.22 to $5.16: while this makes the price a bit more accessible and reduces the potential for a dramatic drop from the debut (let’s say it will drop to $3.00 regardless, then it’s a reduced difference from the new price to this price). It also diminishes the attractiveness of this as an ultra-low float, though by all standards, the float is still minimal enough to potentially get a pop at some point. The company is an Israeli technology system that restricts the use of mobile devices by drivers in vehicles. It’s an uplisting from the the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, so I’m not gonna spend too much time discussing this one, since uplistings tend to be a different type of setup than most pure play IPOs.

Considerations: This is an uplisting, and has been rescheduled from last week. The software seems like something consumers would only use if forced to: either by an employer or federal regulations. I may watch this one in case it sells off hard on Day 1, and look for a Day 2 spike: it has been adjusted from an ultral-low float offering to what is still a very low float, and if it gets ignored and trades down at a low volume, then this would provide the right conditions for accumulation on Day 1 and a pump on Day 2 or 3.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+53% for 2021 on $145k in total revenue
– Net Profits:
+198% for 2021 on $52k total gross profits
– Gross Margins: 35%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
ThinkEquity

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float, Uplisting

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be focused elsewhere on Wednesday, but will keep an eye on this for a potential entry if we see a massive drop that persists throughout the end of Day 1 and look for a possible Day 2 setup.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

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WYTEC (WYTC) – May 6, 2022 | 3.89M Units
Price Range:
$4.25
Offering Size:
$18M
Shares Outstanding:
18M

Industry: 5G Networking

Overview:
Another rescheduled IPO from last week, this time around they’ve nailed down the offering price at $4.25. This company provides 5G network deployment technology for small cell systems that offer coverage within 1000 feet of a tower. They target their solutions to mobile virtual network operators in the cable industry to bolster their cellular and mobile offerings with WiFi/data/VOIP services.

Considerations: This company is not profitable, not producing positive revenue, and has negative baseline financials across the board. The float isn’t that low, relative to others we have on the docket for Friday, and I’m not sure there will be much day-trading interest on this one. However, we have seen quite a bit of interest in recent low-float IPOs in the past week, and Tuesday saw quite a few recent low-float IPOs make rebound runs (OST, HLVX, JCSE, RVSN…) so maybe the trend can bleed into some interest in a debut play, but that’s a long shot.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-11.7% in 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+26% in 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
15%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK

Trading Strategy:
This one has units and the float isn’t that low: so it would need social buzz to send it on a debut run. Given that Boustead has an IPO offering on Friday, I think low-float IPO scalpers will be focused on that one instead of WYTC. I’m not particularly interested in this one until it bottoms out as a possible LPX move when the lock-up expires.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

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Bright Green Corp (BGXX) – May 11, 2022 | 158M Shares
Price Range:
~$4.00
Offering Size:
$7.6M
Shares Outstanding:


Industry: Cannabis

Overview:
This is a pre-revenue company that sells cannabis products in the US. They are still waiting on federal licenses, which potentially could be a huge catalyst for the stock, assuming those are granted, but it’s a risky move and ultimately a very crowded space. This is a direct listing, so the company itself will not be raising any funds from the IPO.

Considerations: This is a direct listing with a really high float and not a very big offering, so I’m curious to see where the shares price at. Given the float and direct offering, it’s not something I want to get in on. Cannabis stocks aren’t in vogue right now, and the market is pretty flooded, so I don’t see any reason to rush into this one on Day 1. It could be an interesting play if it bottoms out before dropping any headlines, but with a triple-digit float, it doesn’t really look like something I’d usually trade.

Growth Numbers: It has no revenue

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:


Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Direct Listing

Recent Similar IPOs: Can’t really think of any direct listings in the weed space with this kind of float.

Trading Strategy:
Stay away.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

SOS Hydration (SOSH) – May 12, 2022 | 1.8M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $6.50
Offering Size:
$13.6M
Shares Outstanding:
7.49M

Industry: Health Supplement / Sports Drink

Overview:
Yet another IPO rescheduled from last week (this is at least the third time it’s been on the calendar). This is company has developed a hydration product based on the WHO’s rehydration formula with enhancements that they claim improves absorption and performance of the product. They do have a retail presence in large retail chains such as CVS, Walmart, and Whole Foods, along with online sales on sites like Amazon.com and Target.com. So this is like, actually a real company with revenue and a product that generally has very high customer ratings for its performance. Whether the market is ready to be enthusiastic about buying into the debut is another question.

Considerations: Rescheduled from last week (and the week before then and the week before that): not much has changed – except for a slightly larger float: having been increased from 1.36M units to 1.8M units, and it is still offered for allocation request on WeBull, so it seems they must be struggling to fill their order book.

Last week I wrote,
“I’ll have to defer to social media throughout the week to get a sense as to whether retail traders are likely to get behind this one at all. With just 1.36M shares (plus an equal number of warrants), and a limited number of total shares outstanding, this one could get pumped simply as an ultra-low float IPO. But I’m not sure it’s sexy enough to warrant a debut buy: so I’ll be watching the pre-debut indication and most likely, just waiting to see if it drops into an attractive price range for a subsequent rebound.”

Given the attention STSS no doubt stirred up with its Day 3 run, this one may get played out. The float is tiny, and food stocks are in vogue right now, so maybe I should pay attention to the debut on this a little more. If we see strong buy-side demand perhaps it can run.


Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+54% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+42% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
37% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra-Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: OTLY

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be paying attention to social media this week, as sometimes a cult-brand IPO gets enough support from its target consumer base and loyal customers to run it: think DNUT, BIRD, BROS, etc.
The float is so low that it may not drop as hard as others, especially given that it appears to have at least moderate brand name recognition. If it doesn’t perform well at all on Day 1, it could be a very interesting Day 2 setup, as this one actually could benefit from an overnight media cycle. I believe many of its loyal customers won’t be aware of the IPO until it the day after it debuts and headlines announce its IPO performance: so a Day 2 run is very possible.


Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Not high, but not completely disinterested. Seems like it could get enough support from a loyal customer/fan base to give it some legs.

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

ProFrac Holding (PFHC) – May 12, 2022 | 16M Shares
Price Range:
$21.00 – $24.00
Offering Size:
$441.6M
Shares Outstanding:
34.9M

Industry: Oil/Energy

Overview:
So this one actually qualifies as a mainstream IPO, with a top-tier underwriter and it’s in the energy/oil space, which is one of the few sectors that has been holding it’s ground in this market due to pressure on oil prices in relation to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian supply. This company provides services to upstream oil companies related to fracking, which has received a lot of bad press in regards to environmental impacts, but may be unavoidable in the current political/economic environment.

Considerations: Given demand for gas and oil, this is one appears to be perfectly timed to current geopolitical issues. I would compare this one to the EE IPO which debuted back on April 13, 2022 though perhaps this company is a bit more competitive in their respective field. The overall market is still reeling, and so any mainstream IPO that debuts in these conditions is going to have to provide a strong case for institutional investors to consider anchoring the deal, and the float is not all that large for a traditional IPO. I don’t really expect retail traders to pile into such an IPO on the debut, so this one may end up pricing below range and opening or dipping below that, in which case I’d be looking for a reversal as a possible trade setup.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+43% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-63.8% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
25.8%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriter:
JP Morgan

IPO Classification:
Mainstream

Recent Similar IPOs: EE

Trading Strategy:
I feel that JP Morgan tends to leave some meat on the bones for retail traders to get some action on the debut, but will take care of their IPO buyers first. Given the current market conditions, this one is likely to price at the low end of the range, if not lower to ensure IPO buyers don’t take a bath right off the debut. From there, we’ll have to see how much demand there is from retail: a slight debut premium with a strong buy-side imbalance would be an indication for a possible debut entry. Anything else, and waiting for a dip down to the IPO price would be a reasonable trade setup.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Intrinsic Medicine (INRX) – May 12, 2022 | 4.16M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00 – 7.00
Offering Size:
$25M
Shares Outstanding:
11.3M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a pre-clinical biotech that is in the process of developing treatments for gastrointestinal diseases such as IBS-C and IBS-D. They are not yet in Phase I testing for any candidates.

Considerations: Not super-low float, and it’s a biotech, so I’m not gonna try and trade this one. If it drops hard enough on Day 1 and Day 2, maybe it becomes a target for a pumper, but there are other lower-float candidates on the calendar, so I’m not sure I’ll take a chance on this one.

Growth Numbers: pre-clinical, so no revenue

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the S-1:
– “This prospectus covers the possible resale by the Selling Stockholders identified in the table below of up to 13,615,470 shares of our common stock”
So basically, up to 13.6M additional shares may be sold by existing share holders immediately after the IPO… which means the ‘low-float’ of the IPO is basically negated, and any run in the share price could be sold-off immediately.

Underwriters:
Spartan Capital and Revere Securities

IPO Classification:
Low-float Biotech

Recent Similar IPOs: BLTE… except the additional shares clause makes this one unique in a not very appealing way.

Trading Strategy:
I simply don’t like that clause that allows existing shareholders to sell off over 3x the float. Perhaps Spartan finds a way to pump this one along the lines of how they managed to squeeze ALZN from a $5.00 pricing to a $29.00 debut that sold off from the open: it now trades at $0.97. Think it’s a setup I’d rather avoid altogether.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Actelis Networks (ASNS) – May 13, 2022 | 3M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00
Offering Size:
$16M
Shares Outstanding:
15.6M

Industry: IoT (Internet of Things)

Overview:
Also rescheduled from last week, this is a network solutions company with a proprietary hybrid fiber-copper technology that provides a flexible solution for areas regardless of whether they can easily be reached with fiber-optic solutions. But that’s not really why anyone is paying attention to this one: it’s a Boustead deal, and they tend to figure out ways to run their offerings, so people will watch, some will buy off the debut, and if we get anything other than volatility off the debut we will be surprised.

Considerations: Well, it’s a low-float Boustead deal. That’s generally enough to bring attention to this one. While it was reschedule from last week, reports I’ve received from traders with direct brokerage accounts is that it was due to some questions from the SEC: which may sound a bit dodgy on the surface, is perhaps better news for those hoping for a ‘Boustead Special’ than lack of retail demand.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+0.2% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-20.3% in 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margins: 46%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
Boustead Securities

IPO Classification:
Boustead

Trading Strategy:
I’ve put in an allocation request for this one on WeBull – if we get a debut premium, I’ll probably sell on the debut. I’m not so sure this one has much upside as a debut trade. Boustead has delivered a couple duds recently, and the runners have had clear ties to Asia or other foreign entities (AKAN was tied to Lesotho). This one might be one where I just sell any allocation I get if given a chance to take profits, and otherwise put this one on watch for a longer term LPX play.
Having said that, it is a Boustead deal, and it does have a low-float, so it’s not crazy to think that retail traders who have become accustomed to Boustead delivering rips off the debut pick up on this one and send it into at least one halt with an open to the upside. I just feel like it’s pretty risky to hold any longer than that.


Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Innovative Eyewear (LUCY) – May 13, 2022 | 1.54M Units
Price Range:
$5.50 – $7.50
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.7M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This company produces glasses that feature microphones and open-ear audio technology that connect to devices via bluetooth. Dubbed as ‘smart audio glasses’ – they sell under the brand name “Lucyd” (https://www.lucyd.co) and are endorsed by a number of lesser known professional athletes such as WNBA player, Monique Billings. The IPO is selling Units that consist of one share of common stock and 2 warrants (a Series A and Series B warrant).

Considerations: As far as the product goes, I dunno, kinda bulky and gimmicky in my opinion. Are these the next GoPro or Beats-by-Dre? I doubt it. Perhaps they can upgrade to further advancements in the future: augmented reality would be a logical progression, but in the current format, I don’t think they are interesting enough to generate enough buzz to warrant a debut play. The ultra-low float plus warrants makes this an interesting setup for a possible Day 2 run, but that’s about the only angle I can see on this one other than a longer term LPX play: this one does have a low float even when taking the total shares outstanding into account.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
1136% for 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
up to $86k in 2021 from -$17k in 2020
– Gross Margin:
20%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
– Series B warrants expire within 1 year, and the company does not intend to list them on any exchange.
– Lucyd Ltd. will control roughly 65% of the stock upon completion of the offering


Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: LCFY

Trading Strategy:
This one doesn’t really look like a debut trade to me: don’t see any reason to believe it’s a Stealth IPO, and don’t expect it to get much retail interest. On top of that, market conditions are bordering on panic mode at the moment, so I’m expecting very low volume on this one and generally downward movement. This might setup a Day 2 pop, but even that depends somewhat on there being solvent day traders in the market to give it a boost.
I’ll be watching this one for a possible LPX run down the line. With Series B warrants on a 1 year expiration, it seems they’ll be wanting to run this back to the IPO price at some point before then.


Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

OKYO Pharma (OKYO) – May 13, 2022 | 961k shares
Price Range:
$4.50 – $6.50
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
22.11M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a British pre-clinical biotech with a pipeline of candidates that address inflammatory eye diseases and ocular pain: examples include a treatment for dry eye that is poised to enter Phase I testing.

Considerations: The float on this one is so low that it appears to be almost begging day traders to pile in, and the price certainly invites speculation, so it could be interesting just on the setup alone. According to the prospectus, their lead candidate could skip Phase I safety trails and proceed to Phase 2 by the end of 2022: which would present a clear catalyst for an upside move if (when) this stock drops from the IPO price.

Growth Numbers: none

Baseline Financials: none

Notes from the F-1:
We were originally incorporated in the British Virgin Islands as a British Virgin Islands Business Company on July 4, 2007 under the BVI Business Companies Act 2004 with company number 1415559 under the name Jellon Enterprises, Inc.. Our legal and commercial name was changed to Minor Metals & Mining, Inc. on October 24, 2007, to Emerging Metals Limited on November 28, 2007, to West African Minerals Corporation on December 9, 2011, and to OKYO Pharma Corporation on January 10, 2018. On March 9, 2018, shareholders approved the cancellation of our AIM listing and migration to Guernsey.
I mean, this sounds super sketchy, but perhaps as a shell company it makes sense?
Our website address is www.okyopharma.com. The reference to our website is an inactive textual reference only and the information contained in, or that can be accessed through, our website is not a part of this registration statement.
So what you’re saying is, you have a website, but the information on the website is possibly not accurate?


Underwriters:
ThinkEquity

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float ( about as low a float as I’ve seen)

Recent Similar IPOs: LCFY

Trading Strategy:
This is such a low float that it will be interesting to watch where it opens. If it gets pumped up to a small debut premium, it could be ready to run, if the debut is up in the $10+ range, I’d be pretty weary of any continued upside, and don’t se

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:

Most IPOs are subject to a 180 day lockup period before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX for the Week of May 9, 2022

Society Pass (SOPA)
– LPX Date:
May 9, 2022
LPX Period: 6 Month
IPO Date: November 9, 2021
IPO Price: $9.00
Exercise Price of Common Shares: 110% of IPO = $9.90
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: $3.30 – made effective on February 8, 2022 subject to 6-month lock-up
Notes: Reference 10K dated 30 March, 2022

Stran & Company Inc (STRN)
LPX Date: May 9, 2022
LPX Period: 6 Month
IPO Date: November 9, 2021
IPO Price: $4.15
Exercise Price of Common Shares: 110% of IPO = $5.1875
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: $4.81375 – made effective Jan 5
Notes: Original LPX agreement was waived for 4.3 m shares in the orig IPO
Reference 10k dated March 28, 2022

BlueJay Diagnostics (BJDX)
– LPX Date:
May 9, 2022
LPX Period: 6 Month
IPO Date: November 10, 2021
IPO Price: $10
Exercise Price of Common Shares and warrants: $10 and $7 (MEF) sold as units
– Notes:
IPO included S-1MEF (addition of shares to orig offering <20%)
No secondary
Reference 10k dated 10 March, 2022

Heartbeam Inc (BEAT)
– LPX Date:
May 10, 2022
LPX Period: 6 Month
IPO Date: November 11, 2021
IPO Price: $6 sold as units
Exercise Price of Common Shares and warrants: $6 equal 100% of the IPO price per Unit
Notes: Reference 10k dated 24 March, 2022

Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC)
– LPX Date:
May 10, 2022
LPX Period: 6 Month
IPO Date: November 11, 2021
IPO Price: $5
Exercise Price of Common Shares: $6.25, equal to 125% of the public offering price
Notes: (12-month LPX for officers and directors)

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews https://tradingfitgirl.net/references for the direct Spreadsheet Link

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IPO Warriors IPO Preview for May 2 – May 6, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO Preview for May 2 – May 6, 2022

May 3, 2022

Honestly, I can’t remember the last time we had an IPO for a company that your average consumer, let alone retail trader, had ever heard of going into the debut. The market has been in a brutal pull-back from the COVID hysteria that brought out a record number of IPOs in 2021, with ‘growth’ names being hit hardest and many recent IPOs trading significantly below their initial pricing. Simply put, the institutional money that provides the anchor investments in mainstream IPOs has had its money parked on the sidelines, and so we’ve been left to trade low-float IPOs of the more dubious variety.

Suffice to say, there have still been some incredible win opportunities in the offerings backed by the less prominent underwriters, with OST and HLVX continuing the trend last week. But this week we may see the beginning of a turnaround in the market, depending on how the first brand-recognized IPO we’ve seen in a long time performs.

With a full slate of IPOs lined up for Friday, May 6, 2022: I’m planning to live-stream the action with co-host Aly Angel starting around 9:40 AM EST here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Edible Garden (EDBL) – May 4, 2022 | 2.14M Units

  • Austin Gold (AUST) – May 4, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Novusterra (NOVS) – May 4, 2022 | 2.14M Units

  • PepGen (PEPG) – May 6, 2022 | 7.2M Shares

  • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) – May 6, 2022 | 35M Shares

  • WYTEC (WYTC) – May 6, 2022 | 2.9M Shares

  • SOS Hydration (SOSH) – May 6, 2022 | 1.6M Units

  • SaveOne (SVRE) – May 6, 2022 | 1.38M Units

+++

Ok, Let’s jump in:

Edible Garden (EDBL) – May 6, 2022 | 2.14M Units
Price Range:
$6.00 – $8.00
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
4.046M

Industry: Indoor Gardening

Overview:
Rescheduled from last week: this company operates indoor agriculture technologies to grow lettuce and herbs indoors. Apparently, they emerged out of a failed cannabis growing operation and have rather sparse financials. Furthermore, 58% of their revenue comes from just 2 clients.

Considerations: Food prices are skyrocketing, but I’m not sure that’s going to be enough to get much buzz built around this company. Their financials are pretty weak, and the main thing going for it is that the float is relatively tiny, and this could attract the accumulation crowd. I’m not sure how much longer this trend will hold: as we’ve seen it get played out before, and this IPO is scheduled to debut at the end of a string of low float IPOs that have managed to pull together Day 2 or Day 3 rallies solely based on microscopic floats.
The comparatively high price gives this one a lot of room to fall, so perhaps if it capitulates all the way down below $3, it sets up a nice run back up to the $4 or $5 level.
There have been rumors that a large portion of the shares are under lock-up provisions, but I have not verified this. But if we do see a very low volume of shares being offered in the pre-debut imbalance, it could indicate an opportunity to get in for a small position on a potential runner.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+12% for the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
-40% for the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margins: 8%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
We have granted the representative of underwriters an option exercisable within 45 days of the date of this prospectus to purchase from us up to 321,429 additional shares of common stock at an assumed purchase price of $6.99 per share and/or up to 321, 429 additional warrants at a purchase price of $0.01 per warrant, less, in each case, the underwriting discounts and commissions to cover over-allotments, if any.
I mean, underwriters almost always have the option to buy more shares, but considering the size of the IPO to start with, adding about 640k in potential shares (half warrants) to the float by the underwriter could provide enough motivation for the underwriter to try to get this to jump on Day 1… and would also likely setup an abrupt drop whenever the underwriter decides to exercise and dump that position.

Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float

Trading Strategy:
I am not sure about this one, really. If they debut on Wednesday, I’ll be busy celebrating my daughter’s birthday anyway, but were I trading this one, I’d be watching to see if the pre-debut indication balancing shows low volume with a significant debut premium. I’d tread carefully either way, but if we see low volume with healthy premium it could be poised to halt up off the open.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Austin Gold (AUST) – May 4, 2022 | 3M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00
Offering Size:
$12M
Shares Outstanding:
12.5M

Industry: Gold Mining

Overview:
This company owns the gold prospecting rights to several plots of land in Nevada near existing mines. The CEO has a history of delivering value to clients, with his most recent company being sold for $2.8B (Pretium Resources) at a considerable premium for shareholders.

Considerations: This one was repeatedly rescheduled again and again from November into December 2021 before ultimately throwing in the pick and shovel and delaying the deal until this week. Their website is laughably bad, with no updated information, and some pages showing error messages. Perhaps they feel that with the market in the dumpster, there will be an interest in gold. There was a time when the prototypical pump-and-dump scheme revolved around gold mining companies, so there will be an abundance of skeptics on this one, and the market has not been too friendly to Roth Capital IPOs, so I’m not sure this will get much immediate retail demand. Then again, gold is considered an inflation hedge, and perhaps that brings this one some attention. Maybe one to watch, but unless the temperature of the social buzz around this one gets hot, I’ll be watching it from the sidelines.

Growth Numbers: None: they haven’t even built any mines yet.

Baseline Financials:
Also none

Notes from the S-1:
Didn’t really bother

Underwriters:
Roth Capital (an unloved underwriter who has yet to deliver a debut winner since I’ve been watching their IPOs)

IPO Classification:
Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: LITM (I guess, I mean, it’s also a pre-operational mining company, but Lithium is hotter than Gold these days).

Trading Strategy:
Can’t imagine much interest in this one off the debut. Perhaps it’s a low-floater that gets accumulated on Day 1 and runs on Day 2? Who knows, that’s been a winning setup for the past 3 weeks, and we saw it again on NVCT from Friday last week to Monday this week. Almost makes sense to buy any low-float IPO that bombs on Day 1 just to see if it rebounds in the following days.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low..

+++

Novusterra (NOVS – May 4, 2022 | 3.75M Units
Price Range:
$4.25 – $5.25
Offering Size:
$18M
Shares Outstanding:
12.5M

Industry: Graphene production

Overview:
This company manufactures products made of graphene produced from coal and carbon. They are pre-development, so no financial are available.

Considerations: This one will need some serious social buzz in order to make any kind of upward move off the debut. The float is not tiny and there are warrants involved, so unless the Twittersphere and Reddit Throngs can concoct a narrative around EV applications, this one is likely to drop off for a bit before it gets some random pumps by trading groups. If the debut shows a premium above the IPO pricing, it might actually be on day trader’s radar.

Growth Numbers: None: they are pre-development.

Baseline Financials:
Also none

Notes from the S-1:
Didn’t really bother

Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: LITM ( IF this catches an EV angle, it could be an interesting setup – like LITM… if not, it’s unlikely to give much immediate upside).

Trading Strategy:
Just gotta watch the debut and gauge interest on social media. If we see really low volume on the debut with an unreasonable debut premium, it could be set to run off the debut. But it’s a super risky play, so I will most likely be watching it from the sidelines

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low..

+++

PepGen (PEPG) – May 6, 2022 | 7.2M Shares
Price Range:
$13.00 – $15.00
Offering Size:
$124M
Shares Outstanding:
20.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a clinical stage biotech with a lead candidate in Phase I safety trials that focuses on Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.

Considerations: I generally don’t trade biotech IPO debuts, and this one doesn’t provide anything enticing enough to make me want to break that trend.

Growth Numbers: None.

Baseline Financials:
Also none.

Notes from the S-1:
Didn’t really bother

Underwriters:
BofA Securities

IPO Classification: Friday Biotech Bust

Recent Similar IPOs: ANTX

Trading Strategy:
Biotechs like this one are a very difficult debut to trade: 90% of the time they drop on Day 1 and are far less prone than their ultra-low-float counterparts to random pumps. I just don’t trade this kind of stock unless it drops to absurdly low price points going into the lockup period, but certainly not a Day 1 debut trade for me.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low..

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) – May 6, 2022 | 35M Shares
Price Range:
$21.00 – $24.00
Offering Size:
$966M
Shares Outstanding:
350M

Industry: Contact Lenses

Overview:
This is the first bona fide mainstream IPO of the year from a brand-name company known in average households as a company that specializes in corrective lenses and disposable contact lenses. This is a well-established company with solid baseline financials and steady growth, but nothing like what we saw in software startups in the last couple of years. This IPO is a little different than usual IPOs, as the company is not actually raising any funding for the company – it is a spin-off from Bausch Health Companies who will be pocketing all of the proceeds from his debut. Another way to look at this is that Baush Health is selling this company to the public. It’s also a dual listing on the TSX and NYSE.

Considerations: The float on this one is a full 35M shares, and my guess is that retail traders aren’t too enthusiastic to buy into a long-term position on any IPOs right now, so the typical debut premium we have seen in brand name openings seems unlikely. The financial community will be watching this on closely to see how it performs: a strong debut will open the door for more IPOs, so I believe the underwriters will be aiming to keep the IPO price reasonable, and open it at a price that avoids an immediate sell-off.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+10% in 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
+7.7% in 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
61%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
positive
– Operating Profit:
positive

Notes from the S-1:
pretty standard stuff.
We are not selling any of the common shares in this offering and will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the common shares.


Underwriters:
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan… and many others

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: We haven’t had a brand name mainstream IPO this year, so I’m not going to make any comparisons.

Trading Strategy:
I don’t believe this will be particularly exciting one way or another. I believe they will price it reasonably for institutional buyers to ensure they don’t take a bath on the debut, and they open it at a price that they can easily protect if it drops. So it could be a relatively safe entry – particularly on any opening drop, but I also feel that IPO buyers will sell into any strength.

Brand Name Recognition:
High.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

WYTEC (WYTC) – May 6, 2022 | 3.89M Units
Price Range:
$4.15 – $6.15
Offering Size:
$20M
Shares Outstanding:
18M

Industry: 5G Networking

Overview:
This company provides 5G network deployment technology for small cell systems that offer coverage within 1000 feet of a tower. They target their solutions to mobile virtual network operators in the cable industry to bolster their cellular and mobile offerings with WiFi/data/VOIP services.

Considerations: This company is not profitable, not producing positive revenue, and has negative baseline financials across the board. The float isn’t that low, relative to others we have on the docket for Friday, and I’m not sure there will be much day-trading interest on this one. However, we have seen quite a bit of interest in recent low-float IPOs in the past week, and Tuesday saw quite a few recent low-float IPOs make rebound runs (OST, HLVX, JCSE, RVSN…) so maybe the trend can bleed into some interest in a debut play, but that’s a long shot.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-11.7% in 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+26% in 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
15%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK

Trading Strategy:
This one has units and the float isn’t that low: so it would need social buzz to send it on a debut run. Given that Boustead has an IPO offering on Friday, I think low-float IPO scalpers will be focused on that one instead of WYTC. I’m not particularly interested in this one until it bottoms out as a possible LPX move when the lock-up expires.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

SOS Hydration (SOSH) – May 6, 2022 | 1.36M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $6.50
Offering Size:
$8M
Shares Outstanding:
7.03M

Industry: Health Supplement / Sports Drink

Overview:
This is company has developed a hydration product based on the WHO’s rehydration formula with enhancements that they claim improves absorption and performance of the product. They do have a retail presence in large retail chains such as CVS, Walmart, and Whole Foods, along with online sales on sites like Amazon.com and Target.com. So this is like, actually a real company with revenue and a product that generally has very high customer ratings for its performance. Whether the market is ready to be enthusiastic about buying into the debut is another question.

Considerations: Rescheduled from last week (and the week before then): not much has changed, and it is still offered for allocation request on WeBull, so it seems they must be struggling to fill their order book.

Last week I wrote,
“I’ll have to defer to social media throughout the week to get a sense as to whether retail traders are likely to get behind this one at all. With just 1.36M shares (plus an equal number of warrants), and a limited number of total shares outstanding, this one could get pumped simply as an ultra-low float IPO. But I’m not sure it’s sexy enough to warrant a debut buy: so I’ll be watching the pre-debut indication and most likely, just waiting to see if it drops into an attractive price range for a subsequent rebound.”

Given the attention STSS no doubt stirred up with its Day 3 run, this one may get played out. The float is tiny, and food stocks are in vogue right now, so maybe I should pay attention to the debut on this a little more. If we see strong buy-side demand perhaps it can run.


Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+54% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+42% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
37% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra-Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: OTLY

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be paying attention to social media this week, as sometimes a cult-brand IPO gets enough support from its target consumer base and loyal customers to run it: think DNUT, BIRD, BROS, etc.
The float is so low that it may not drop as hard as others, especially given that it appears to have at least moderate brand name recognition. If it doesn’t perform well at all on Day 1, it could be a very interesting Day 2 setup, as this one actually could benefit from an overnight media cycle. I believe many of its loyal customers won’t be aware of the IPO until it the day after it debuts and headlines announce its IPO performance: so a Day 2 run is very possible.


Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Not high, but not completely disinterested. Seems like it could get enough support from a loyal customer/fan base to give it some legs.

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

SaverOne (SVRE) – May 6, 2022 | 1.38M Shares
Price Range:
$7.22
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
4.046M

Industry: Mobile App / Automotive Software

Overview:
This is an Isreali company that has developed a technology that restricts the use of mobile devices by drivers in vehicles. It’s an uplisting from the the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, so I’m not gonna spend too much time discussing this one, since uplistings tend to be a different type of setup than most pure play IPOs.

Considerations: This is an uplisting, and has been rescheduled from last week. The software seems like something consumers would only use if forced to: either by an employer or federal regulations. I may watch this one in case it sells off hard on Day 1, and look for a Day 2 spike: it is an ultral-low float offering that could get ignored. This would provide the right conditions for accumulation on Day 1 and a pump on Day 2.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+53% for 2021 on $145k in total revenue
– Net Profits:
+198% for 2021 on $52k total gross profits
– Gross Margins: 35%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
ThinkEquity

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float, Uplisting

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be focused elsewhere on Wednesday, but will keep an eye on this for a potential entry if we see a massive drop that persists throughout the end of Day 1 and look for a possible Day 2 setup.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

Actelis Networks (ASNS) – May 6, 2022 | 3M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00
Offering Size:
$16M
Shares Outstanding:
15.6M

Industry: IoT (Internet of Things)

Overview:
This is a network solutions company with a proprietary hybrid fiber-copper technology that provides a flexible solution for areas regardless of whether they can easily be reached with fiber-optic solutions. But that’s not really why anyone is paying attention to this one: it’s a Boustead deal, and they tend to figure out ways to run their offerings, so people will watch, some will buy off the debut, and if we get anything other than volatility off the debut we will be surprised.

Considerations: Well, it’s a low-float Boustead deal. That’s generally enough to bring attention to this one..

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+0.2% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-20.3% in 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margins: 46%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
Boustead Securities

IPO Classification:
Boustead

Trading Strategy:
I’ve put in an allocation request for this one on WeBull – if we get a debut premium, I’ll probably sell on the debut. I’m not so sure this one has much upside as a debut trade. Boustead has delivered a couple duds recently, and the runners have had clear ties to Asia or other foreign entities (AKAN was tied to Lesotho)… so I’ll be investigating a little further during the week to see if I can find anything interesting.Otherwise, this one might be one where I just sell any allocation I get if given a chance to take profits, and otherwise put this one on watch for a longer term LPX play.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

Live Debut Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kY6V6_Hclgo

+++

LIVE IPO STREAMING

May 6, 2022 at 9:40 AM EST

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IPO Trading Review for the Week of April 25, 2022 – April 29, 2022

IPO Trading Review for the Week of April 25, 2022 – April 29, 2022

April 29, 2022

A week that delivered a brutal blow to the SPY and major indices was shrugged off by the mid-week low-float IPOs that delivered substantial win opportunities, including a traditional Stealth IPO setup that was so user friendly that just about everyone who traded it made money (so long as they didn’t hold beyond the open on Day 2).

The rest of the week continued to deliver tradeable IPO debuts with minimal downside though the plays clearly started to appear to get played out. I doubt that market conditions helped much: as many traders were either busy shorting just about everything or nursing margin calls.

+++

To catch the replay of the live stream where I traded OST and TNON with Aly Angel, follow this link here (please Like/Subscribe if you havn’t already):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci6enlB8Oro

+++

Also…

If you feel that my research and ideas helped you take some profits this week on IPO trades, please consider a contribution to my GoFundMe campaign:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/getting-back-on-our-feet-after-evacuating-ukraine

+++

Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Tenon Medical (TNON) – April 27, 2022 | 4M Shares
IPO Price: $5.00
Debut Price: $22.05
Day 1 High: $28.00
Day 1 Low: $13.50
High Since Debut: $29.81
Low Since Debut: $13.50

Day 1 Action: As expected, this one opened up at a significant premium to the IPO price, on a very small volume of just 18k shares, and jumped up into a halt at $24.26 – looking like it might be on it’s way to triple digits along the lines of $AERC.
But the excitement was short lived for any debut buyers, as the dreaded “Halt of Death” reversal ensued, and the share price opened up down at $17.40 and closed almost immediately again into a downward halt at $15.66. The pain wasn’t over yet, as the next halt opened at $14.00 and touched $13.50 before instantly reversing back up into a halt at $15.40… diamond handed believers and scalpers who ventured to pick up shares on the way down were rewarded from there, however, as a choppy spread and a series of halts culminated in a top at $28.00. From there it traded between $23 and $27 for the remainder of the day, on volume of 880k shares

Day 2 Action: TNON was all over the place on Day 2, dropping down into a halt in the opening minutes that touched as low as $20.11 before reversing back up through halts to hit the ATH at $29.81, bouncing around a bit more until it dropped out to the low of the day at $17.69 and immediately rebounding to $25.59… it then sporadically traded for the rest of the day between $20.50 and $24 and closed the day at $24.04
Rough trading waters for anyone who ventured into this one mid-stream, with Bidders and Sellers jockeying under and over one another to catch each successive trade.

Looking Ahead: This on is too chaotic for me to predict beyond the fact that it is nearly certain to head back down to the sub-$5 level in the not-so-distant-future. I wouldn’t touch this with my worst enemy’s account, and the trading pattern on TNON already makes me a bit sea-sick.

+++

Ostin Technology (OST) – April 27, 2022 | 3.4M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $10.10
Day 1 High: $43.97
Day 1 Low: $10.10
High Since Debut: $56.11
Low Since Debut: $3.90

Day 1 Action: We absolutely nailed this one, calling out the Stealth IPO setup well in advance, and adding to the WeBull allocations we received on the debut. A fortuitous string of upward halts brought us from the opening halt at $11.11 which opened at $16.10 and immediately halted up at $17.71, to the second halt at that opened at $20.22 (a 100% win on a debut trade right there), to a series of slightly choppy halts that presented no real fear of a reversal reaching a high of $28.73 – the opening move on OST was the stuff we dream about as IPO traders. It then setup a classic baseline pattern that ascended from a post-peak-low at $21.60 to an end of day run that closed at $40.00 and briefly touched $43.97 in the first minute of after-hour trading. This was a tremendous day for a debut: reaching 1000% over the IPO price and offering almost no downside for those who held out for a chance to take profits at any point after they entered their trade.

Day 2 Action: The opening move in early pre-market jumped to the all-time-high on OST, with shares traded for as much as $56.11, but the volume on that candle was only 534 shares, so it’s not a very realistic measuring stick of ‘what-could-have-been’ had you attempted to cash out at that price. Following the initial early pre-market spike, the share price came back to ‘just’ $35.00 and floated around in the $35.00 to $40.00 range until markets opened for regular trading hours. An halt down in the 3rd minute of trading was probably enough to scare off any holdovers from the day before, but it quickly reversed and climbed to the all-time-high of regular trading hours at $47.76. It managed to cling to the $40.00 level for about 20 more minutes…
… and then, things got really ugly, very fast.
What ensued was the fastest reversal off a 1000% gainer that I can recall in IPO debuts: with a BASE jump from $40.00 that landed all the way down at about the $6.00 through a series of halts featuring brutal gaps between halt price and opening. There would be no meaningful bounce from there, as shares sold off down to a low of $3.90. A meaningless rally into the close as shorts closed their positions offered little remorse to bag-holders who failed to cash out on the drop, and even an after-market rally that touched just over $5.00 was of no real consequence to anyone who attempted to time the bottom on the way down.
This was by far the worst Day 2 I can recall, reaching over -90% down from the previous close.

Looking Ahead: Yeah, no thanks. This one could rally, or randomly spike up from whatever depths it sinks to in the future. Set your calendars for 180 days from the debut, as this one could potentially get run again once the lockup period expires. But until then, I’ll wait for it to fall below $1 before even thinking about taking a position. Maybe it gets a pump now and then… but I’m happy to just shake my head from the sidelines and chuckle regardless of which way it goes.

I trusted this one to run up off the debut, and eventually crash out. Not gonna go playing in traffic while this one continues to make a mockery of the notion of market regulation.

+++

Belite Bio (BLTE) – April 29, 2022 | 6M Shares
IPO Price: $6.00
Debut Price: $12.50
Day 1 High: $17.46
Day 1 Low: $9.64
High Since Debut: $17.46
Low Since Debut: $8.70

Day 1 Action: The pre-debut indication gave away the setup on this one as it showed pricing at $10.00 and inched up to an opening trade at $12.50 on a robust volume of 250k shares with an ensuing insta-halt up to $13.75. Dreams of a series multiple upward halts were dashed after it opened at $15.50 and reversed after touching as high as $17.04 ( $0.01 away from halting), and then reversed downward into a halt at $13.95. The less-greedy trader who got out after the first halt was rewarded with a solid $3/share win: I tried to get a sell order out before the halt but couldn’t fight my way through the confirmation screens in time, and ended up taking an exit right at my entry price of $12.50 out of the second halt. From there it continued to sell off down to a bottom of $9.64, which would have made a $10.00 entry a nice place to get onboard before the IPO allocation sellers finished offloading their positions and retail day traders brought on a rally that peaked at $17.46. That was the end of the ride, however, as it then trailed off for the remainder of the day, to close down at $10.59 and further petered out into after hours.

Day 2 Action: This was a Friday IPO, so we’ll have to see what Monday brings for Day 2. Despite all the volatility, we only saw volume of 3.4M shares on a float of 6M shares, so a Day 2 rally is not out of the question.

Looking Ahead: Like the others, this eventually joins the rest of the dollar-bin rubbish that makes up 99% of low-float IPOs and those with the patience to read through the F-1 to understand the lock-up period restrictions and follow the FDA announcements could put themselves in a position to load up for an eventual spike on potential approval. Bear in mind that their lead candidate is in Phase III already.

+++

Hillevax (HLVX) – April 29, 2022 | 10.3M Shares
IPO Price: $17.00
Debut Price: $18.76
Day 1 High: $20.57
Day 1 Low: $17.00
High Since Debut: $20.57
Low Since Debut: $17.00

Day 1 Action: The pre-debut indication on this started just above $18.00 and was steadily increased to the opening debut price of $18.76. The book runner clearly maxed out what they could grab on the debut, and despite early allocation sellers taking advantage of the opportunity to get out with a small profit, the opening sell-off sustained the $18.30 support level before the low float kicked in and sent the share price on a run up to a high of $20.57. It would than retract to a baseline at the $18.50 level – with a random 1-minute spike down to $17.00 that looked more like a dark-pool print than active trading, and the stock managed a rally at the turn of power hour to a peak at $20.35 before trailing off into the close at $19.09

Day 2 Action: This was a Friday IPO, so Monday will bring us the Day 2 action.

Looking Ahead: Most biotechs simply fade away as their debut trails off into the past, and are mostly forgotten about until they have some news to report. There were only 2.34M shares traded on a float counted as 11.77M shares according to WeBull. Their lead candidate is a norovirus vaccine, which could be pretty big news if they received approval, but it’s far more likely that this one drops significantly over the next several weeks or months before news is dropped that would pump this stock again. I don’t generally play biotech IPOs to begin with, and once volume falls off, they are best left to settle out and accumulate sparingly into any lock-up period on hopes that they run the share price on headlines to pop it to give insiders a chance to profit on the bump.

+++

Catch me on Benzinga LIVE at Noon on Monday, May 2, 2022 to review the winning trades from last week and to preview the IPOs for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vz-RwImK40

Live Streamed IPO Debuts from This Week

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IPO Warriors IPO Preview for April 25 – April 29, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO Preview for April 25 – April 29, 2022

April 26, 202

The market has been getting hammered, and until the Fed gives us a more definitive stance on interest rate hikes, we’re unlikely to see enough stability to give mainstream IPOs an environment where they are able to execute IPOs. So in the meantime, we’re left with low-float debuts that have been bringing us a mixed bag of assorted garbage to pick through in hopes of finding the rare opportunity to scalp a winning trade.

Fortunately, the “Day 2 Runner” and “Stealth IPO” setups have been working – as we saw last week with JCSE running on the Stealth setup, and ACON giving us a nice Day 2 pop in early trading. With nothing but low-floaters on the IPO calendar for this week, and the market off to a rough start through today (Tuesday, April 26, 2022), I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these IPOs get pulled or rescheduled for next week. Those that do proceed with their listings, should be worthy of consideration.

+++

I’ll be live streaming the IPOs on Wednesday (April 27, 2022) with Aly Angel (https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl) starting around 9:40 AM EST here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci6enlB8Oro

+++

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Innovative Eyewear (LUCY) – April 27, 2022 | 1.53M

  • Tenon Medical (TNON) – April 27, 2022 | 4M

  • Ostin Technology (OST) – April 27, 2022 | 3.4M Shares

  • SaverOne (SVRE) – April 27. 2022 | 1.385M

  • Belite Bio (BLTE) – April 29, 2022 | 6M Shares

  • Edible Garden (EDBL) – April 29, 2022 | 1.36M Units

  • HilleVax (HLVX) – April 29, 2022 | 10.3M Shares

+++

Ok, Let’s jump in:

Innovative Eyewear (LUCY) – April 27, 2022 | 1.54M Units
Price Range:
$5.50 – $7.50
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.7M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This company produces glasses that feature microphones and open-ear audio technology that connect to devices via bluetooth. Dubbed as ‘smart audio glasses’ – they sell under the brand name “Lucyd” (https://www.lucyd.co) and are endorsed by a number of lesser known professional athletes such as WNBA player, Monique Billings. The IPO is selling Units that consist of one share of common stock and 2 warrants (a Series A and Series B warrant).

Considerations: As far as the product goes, I dunno, kinda bulky and gimmicky in my opinion. Are these the next GoPro or Beats-by-Dre? I doubt it. Perhaps they can upgrade to further advancements in the future: augmented reality would be a logical progression, but in the current format, I don’t think they are interesting enough to generate enough buzz to warrant a debut play. The ultra-low float plus warrants makes this an interesting setup for a possible Day 2 run, but that’s about the only angle I can see on this one other than a longer term LPX play: this one does have a low float even when taking the total shares outstanding into account.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
1136% for 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
up to $86k in 2021 from -$17k in 2020
– Gross Margin:
20%

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
– Series B warrants expire within 1 year, and the company does not intend to list them on any exchange.
– Lucyd Ltd. will control roughly 65% of the stock upon completion of the offering

Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: LCFY

Trading Strategy:
This one doesn’t really look like a debut trade to me: don’t see any reason to believe it’s a Stealth IPO, and don’t expect it to get much retail interest. On top of that, market conditions are bordering on panic mode at the moment, so I’m expecting very low volume on this one and generally downward movement. This might setup a Day 2 pop, but even that depends somewhat on there being solvent day traders in the market to give it a boost.
I’ll be watching this one for a possible LPX run down the line. With Series B warrants on a 1 year expiration, it seems they’ll be wanting to run this back to the IPO price at some point before then.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

Live Streaming the IPO Debut: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci6enlB8Oro

+++

Tenon Medical (TNON) – April 27, 2022 | 4M Shares
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$17.2M
Shares Outstanding:
~12M

Industry: Medical Devices

Overview:
This company has developed an FDA cleared (501[k]) proprietary medical device that is designed to fuse one or both scroiliac joints to treat lower back pain. Revenue and gross profit are up year over year, and the company intends to use the proceeds of the IPO to fund marketing and expansion of it’s product.

Considerations: I’m hearing that this IPO is over-subscribed and the underwriter has run some IPOs pretty hard in the past (see AERC), so this one could be poised to debut at a relatively high premium. Where it goes from there is hard to tell. Given the weak market conditions, it’s hard to imagine anything other than manipulated floats run, but this is one to keep an eye on. If we see a huge debut premium on a tiny number of shares accounting for the pre-debut imbalance on the opening trade, then it might be a repeat of AERC. Given that we have another IPO on this day that looks more like an expected Stealth setup, I may pass on this one and focus on the other.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+264% for 2021
– Gross Profits:
+310% for 2021
– Gross Margin:
65% in 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
– “In addition, the representative of the underwriters may, in its discretion, release all or some portion of the shares subject to lock-up agreements prior to the expiration of the lock-up period. See “Shares Eligible for Future Sale” for more information. Sales of a substantial number of such shares upon expiration, or the perception that such sales may occur, or early release of the lock-up, could cause our share price to fall, or make it more difficult for you to sell your common stock at a time and price that you deem appropriate.” so… There’s a 180 lock-up period, but the representative of the underwriters may allow shares be sold off before then. Beware of this if this is trading at an absurd premium in the opening days. As we saw with AERC, the sell-off is dramatic and brutal.

Underwriters:
The Benchmark Company

IPO Classification:
Low Float

Recent Similar IPOs: AERC BEAT

Trading Strategy:
Watch for highly constrained volume on the debut. If we see a tiny number of shares being offered for sale at a high premium in the pre-debut imbalance, we might be in a setup for multiple halts up – bear in mind that this is a very risky setup, as shares can get dumped at any time, and the reality is that this is going to price at around $5.00 per share, so it’s likely to come back down to that price within a week or so.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

Live Streaming the IPO Debut: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci6enlB8Oro

+++

Ostin Technology (OST) – April 27, 2022 | 3.4M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
~13.50M

Industry: Electronics

Overview:
This is a Chinese company involved in the manufacturing of display modules and polarizers used in consumer electronics, outdoor LCD displays, and automotive displays. The do appear to have a legitimate business, with a wide range of products listed on their website, and unlike some of the other low-float IPOs we’ll be watching this week, they do have substantial revenue with net profit listed as $3.3M on $167M of revenue in 2021.

Considerations: This is purely a Stealth IPO setup along the lines of what we’ve recently seen in GNS and JCSE. The Chinese co-underwriter (Shengang Securities) was involved in both the MHUA and HUDI IPOs: the former halted in both directions on the open with a nice upside opportunity, the latter fizzled out for about 6 months before embarking on a massive upside move stretched out over several weeks. Prime Number Capital was also involved in the MHUA IPO, as well as EH, which, like MHUA, took an extended amount of time before it was run, eventually rising from around $8 to a high of $129 in early 2021.
This one is currently offered on WeBull for allocation request, and I’ve put in an order – I’m not sure how much I’ll be able to judge based on the fulfillment amount, since I am not sure many other US based traders will be clamoring for shares, but do expect to see this one open into multiple upward halts provided the debut price is below $20.
If the debut price is up in the $30s or higher, the only move at that point is to sell off any allocation I’ve received, and watch it from the sidelines.
If this one doesn’t jump on the debut, I’ll be circling back to this one in 6 months when the lock-up period expires to watch for an EH / HUDI type of run from there.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+20% for 2021
– Net Profits:
+15% for 2021


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
Primer Number Capital, Shengang Securities

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO (potential)

Recent Similar IPOs: GNS PCSE

Trading Strategy:
I have put in for an allocation request on WeBull for about 300 shares. It’s hard to determine on this kind of setup whether a large fulfillment indicates lack of demand, simply because I expect a large portion of shares to be allocated to Chinese accounts that will determine the price movement on the debut. However, I do believe that we’re going to see either a ridiculously high debut premium: in which case the move will be to sell whatever allocation I get (if any), or if we see a moderate debut price, to expect a move to the upside through multiple halts.
Having said that, we could see an initial halt down before any upside action, if US based retail traders bank profits on a modest debut premium, before the constrained volume on the Chinese side forces a reversal.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High.

Live Streaming the IPO Debut: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci6enlB8Oro

+++

SaverOne (SVRE) – April 27, 2022 | 1.38M Shares
Price Range:
$7.22
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
4.046M

Industry: Mobile App / Automotive Software

Overview:
This is an Isreali company that has developed a technology that restricts the use of mobile devices by drivers in vehicles. It’s an uplisting from the the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, so I’m not gonna spend too much time discussing this one, since uplistings tend to be a different type of setup than most pure play IPOs.

Considerations: This is an uplisting, and the software seems like something consumers would only use if forced to: either by an employer or federal regulations. I may watch this one in case it sells off hard on Day 1, and look for a Day 2 spike: it is an ultral-low float offering that could get ignored. This would provide the right conditions for accumulation on Day 1 and a pump on Day 2.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+53% for 2021 on $145k in total revenue
– Net Profits:
+198% for 2021 on $52k total gross profi
– Gross Margins: 35%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:


Underwriters:
ThinkEquity

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float, Uplisting

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be focused elsewhere on Wednesday, but will keep an eye on this for a potential entry if we see a massive drop that persists throughout the end of Day 1 and look for a possible Day 2 setup.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Belite Bio (BLTE) – April 29, 2022 | 6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.50 – $6.50
Offering Size:
$36M
Shares Outstanding:
24.16M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a clinical stage biotech focused on eye diseases with a lead candidate in Phase III. The underwriter, The Benchmark Company, is also handling TNON earlier in the week. The float isn’t ultra-low float, and biotechs are generally not great IPOs to buy on the debut, so I’ll be watching this one from the sidelines.

Considerations: The Benchmark Company will be pretty busy this week, with both TNON and BLTE on the calendar, and one would think that if they came out with two IPOs in close proximity to each other, then one would run and the other would stink: then they’d go to their retail customers and say, “Well, if you want in on one, you gotta take both.”
If you ask me which one is the winner, I’d say TNON – lower float, and product is already FDA approved. Having said that, I’ve heard rumors that retail was all but locked out of the TNON deal, and may scoff at being offered BLTE. So either way, and on top of being a classic “Biotech Bust” setup, I won’t be getting into BLTE. The float is also just too high to interest me in a possible Day 2 run.

Growth Numbers: It’s still in clinical trials


Baseline Financials:
see above

Notes from the S-1:
Given that I don’t like the setup to begin with, I skipped the S-1

Underwriters:
The Benchmark Company

IPO Classification:
Biotech Bust

Trading Strategy:
I don’t really find anything appealing about this setup: except perhaps as an LPX play when the lock-up period expires. I expect they’ll time it around the FDA decision, and would be looking to scoop up shares well below the $2 level..

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Edible Garden (EDBL) – April 29, 2022 | 2.14M Units
Price Range:
$6.00 – $8.00
Offering Size:
$14M
Shares Outstanding:
4.046M

Industry: Indoor Gardening

Overview:
This company operates indoor agriculture technologies to grow lettuce and herbs indoors. Apparently, they emerged out of a failed cannabis growing operation and have rather sparse financials. Furthermore, 58% of their revenue comes from just 2 clients.

Considerations: Food prices are skyrocketing, but I’m not sure that’s going to be enough to get much buzz built around this company. Their financials are pretty weak, and the main thing going for it is that the float is relatively tiny, and this could attract the accumulation crowd. I’m not sure how much longer this trend will hold: as we’ve seen it get played out before, and this IPO is scheduled to debut at the end of a string of low float IPOs that have managed to pull together Day 2 or Day 3 rallies solely based on microscopic floats.
The comparatively high price gives this one a lot of room to fall, so perhaps if it capitulates all the way down below $3, it sets up a nice run back up to the $4 or $5 level. But I won’t be rushing into build a position.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+12% for the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
-40% for the 9 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margins: 8%


Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the S-1:


Underwriters:
Maxim Group

IPO Classification:
Ultra Low Float

Trading Strategy:
I can’t see this one being particularly exciting – then again, when a low float IPO has such horrible numbers, I start to wonder if there may be more going on here behind the scenes than I’m picking up on. I’ll be watching this one on the debut. If I see something unexpected in the pre-debut imbalance, or a ton of social media buzz leading up to this one, I might change my mind, but I doubt it. If I miss an unexpected runner on this one, then I’ll let it go.

Brand Name Recognition:
None.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Hillevax (HLVX) – April 29, 2022 | 10.3M Shares
Price Range:
$16.00 – $18.00
Offering Size:
$213M
Shares Outstanding:
4.046M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a biotech company in clinical stages of testing a vaccine for norovirus that has already been extensively tested by Takeda Vaccines.

Considerations: Generally speaking, I don’t touch biotech IPOs, particularly on the debut. I’m not gonna change my approach for this one, although vaccine candidates have been one exception to the rule that most biotechs fall hard off their debuts, and this company has a leg up in term of where their lead candidate is in the testing process.

Growth Numbers: n/a


Baseline Financials: n/a

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
JP Morgan

IPO Classification:
Biotech

Trading Strategy:
I’ve long since given up on trying to guess which way biotech IPO debuts will trade, although this one is kind of interesting. But since that’s the line of thought that’s repeatedly gotten me in trouble trying to pick biotech debuts, I think I’ll just let it go.

Brand Name Recognition:
None

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Watch the Live Stream on April 27, 2022 at 9:40 AM EST

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IPO Trading Review for the Week of April 18, 2022 – April 22, 2022

IPO Trading Review for the Week of April 18, 2022 – April 22, 2022

April 24, 2022

The market was in free-fall, but there were still a pair of IPOs brave enough to endure the foul weather conditions and, as we talked about last week: those that do so in a poor climate, are generally worthy of our attention.

Of course, we have to assume that anything coming out of Asia under such circumstances would be a Stealth IPO type of setup, and the more outlandish the company description, the more likely we’d see a pumped debut. And of course, the biotech bust that goes live almost knowing that it will certainly see nothing but downside. Anyway, we had opportunities to take significant wins on both setups if played diligently, but of course, the Stealth Setup is always the prime focus of my attention when I see it lined up for a debut trade, and this past week brought us a grooved fastball right down the center of the plate.

Worth watching the replay with https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl if you would like to relive the winning action.

+++

Catch me live at 12:00 PM EST (noon) on Benzinga Live to review last week’s winning IPO trade and preview the IPO Calendar for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQU872p605I

+++

Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

JE Cleantech (JCSE) – April 22, 2022 | 3.75M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $14.20
Day 1 High: $23.99
Day 1 Low: $14.20
High Since Debut: $23.99
Low Since Debut: $14.20

Day 1 Action: This was a Stealth IPO setup from the start: I mean, dishwashing services out of Singapore with a virtually unknown underwriter? All we were waiting to see was the absurd indication price in the pre-market debut to tip us off to the play: and as long as it didn’t get ‘too absurd’, we knew we had multiple upward halts on deck.
JCSE priced at $4.00 and started indicating at $8.00 – it only went from there, and climbed steadily up to an opening trade at $14.20.
This is where I’d like to stop and make some note about trading the debut on these setups. The key point is that you can’t be greedy and go try to play these for like 10,000 shares: consider that there were only 77.7k shares traded on the debut, and that your 10,000 shares will require an additional 12% more sellers to fill your order: you’ll end up pushing the price up to the point where there will be no further upside, as remaining IPO holders will happily sell once the share price reaches a certain threshold. So as a retail trader buying in on the debut, I limit my action to no more than 2,000 shares (having brutally damaged my portfolio learning this lesson the hard way on SIDU back in December 2021).
Ok, public service announcement aside, this one opened at $14.20 and ripped up into its first halt at $15.62. It then opened at $17.50 and ran into a second halt at $19.25. At this point, I was happy to lock in profits, and set my limit order during the halt at $18.00 and was please to get out at the halt open at $20.60 – though it bumped up to $22.00 before reversing, the downward action resulted in a halt at $18.54, and it would have been a nervous hold from there to remain in the trade. It opened at $19.00 but dropped as low as $17.55 before oscillating in what turned out to be a bullish pennant leveling out in the $18.50 to $19.50 range before breaking out again to a halt at $21.53, which opened at $23.01 and jumped to the high of the day at $23.99 before settling into a baseline right above the $19.50 mark until it broke down through VWAP and traded the remainder of the day in the $17.00 to $20.00 range. It closed the day at $19.00 having only traded 1.2M shares of the total 3.75M float.


Day 2 Action: This was a Friday IPO, but my guess is that we’ll have more action on Day 2.

Looking Ahead: This only traded 1.2M shares out of the 3.75M share float, and given that this was a Singaporean company, my guess is that we see some heavy selling in early pre-market trading: much like what we saw in GNS the week before on Day 2. I’ll be looking for an early pre-market sell-off for an opportunity to buy into a rally towards the market open, with an eye on a spike up into a halt in the opening minute of trading. If this happens, and I’m able to get in, then I’ll be looking to exit there. At some point this falls off a cliff, and I don’t wanna be in it when it does.

+++

Aclarion (ACON) – April 22, 2022 | 2M Units
IPO Price: $4.25
Debut Price: $2.90
Day 1 High: $3.29
Day 1 Low: $2.16
High Since Debut: $3.29
Low Since Debut: $2.16

Day 1 Action: This was a low-float biotech IPO with warrants that was destined to get dumped by IPO buyers when it debuted at $2.90 – and it might have been even uglier were it not for the recent rebound rallies that other low-float IPOs showed that likely drew in retail traders hoping for a quick pop off the debut.
While there was a short jump from the opening trade at $2.90 up to $3.29 in the third minute of trading, it was short-lived and sold off quickly down to a baseline around $2.60. From there we saw a small bounce back up to VWAP at $2.95, but as expected, it fell off from there down to a baseline around $2.40 and a knife down to the day’s low at $2.16 around 1:45 PM EST.
But it seems that day traders were too eager to accumulate positions for a possible Day 2 rally, and the price never fell below the $2.00 threshold that I was looking for to make an entry, and the Day 1 volume of 1.71M shares was a bit more than I was hoping to see for the ideal Day 2 rally setup.
A premature rally through Power Hour saw the share price close the day at $2.72, just $0.18 below the debut price, which typically means we won’t see much of a Day 2 pop at all. I could be wrong, but it’s not the setup I’m looking for on a Day 2 (or Day 3, in the case of STSS) spike setup.


Day 2 Action: This was a Friday IPO, but my guess is that the day traders who would otherwise send this on a Day 2 run already built up their positions, which is likely to mute any potential Day 2 spike. Perhaps a 4:00 AM spike, but I’d expect that to be the high of the remainder of the short term upside run on this one.

Looking Ahead: This one still hasn’t had a halt to the upside, so maybe one comes, but don’t expect this to rally like STSS – more likely that it peters out like RVSN, given the EOD rally we saw on Day 1 and volume of shares traded so far. Better bet for this one is to hold off for a few weeks and pick up shares in the $1.00 zone for an LPX play.

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