Whew… I’m sure I’m not the only trader who felt like last week was a bit of a blur and is somewhat welcoming the weekend break. After HKD revitalized the day trading market for nearly every low-float ticker that could be uncovered by pumpers, trading groups, algos, and FURUs (like me)… we saw yet another Stealth IPO debut to enthusiastic hysteria that rewarded those brave enough to take a play on the debut and especially those patient enough to sit through the multiple sustained halts it went through the opening seconds it was traded and really, for most of the day.

Members of the Premium Membership group received my trading strategies guide for the Magic Empire IPO (ticker MEGL), and joined me for the live stream – it seems that everyone banked at least 100% profits on their trade: many taking home over 200% and some still holding a piece of your positions hoping for more. Positions trading with at least 10 shares paid for their annual Premium Membership subscriptions in full on just that trade alone, and I believe we have more momentum on the upcoming IPO calendar in low-float IPOs coming out of the pipeline. As more traders key in on this trade, the potential for downside risk will increase, and some trades will inevitably blow up: so the key will be identifying the setups that are most likely to run to the upside, while holding off (or reducing risk accordingly), when we don’t see the setups we like.

In the IPO Warriorhood, analysis starts at the beginning of the week with the in-depth reviews of the companies and structures of each IPO, and continues throughout the week as we gauge the conditions of the market and the hype around each IPO. Having traded through the cycle of hot-roasting-blownup-cold a few times, I will be sharing my insights, ideas, strategies and live trading the key IPOs as much as I can to help bring you information to inform your own trading decisions, and greatly appreciate all of the support and ideas that are likewise contributed by the IPOW community.

I expect the fervor in the IPO market to continue into next week, though we won’t get any IPOs before the CPI numbers that come out on Wednesday, so we may be facing some trepidation in the market that has been largely absent for the past two weeks: this may not matter at all, but there also may be some burnout as traders get further and further spread out into recent low-float IPOs, deSPACs, meme stocks, and other random low-float stocks that get pumped by algos and trading rooms. I am going to try to pull back on my number of trades, and wait for more definitive moves where I can take higher conviction entries and hold out for sustained runs, rather than trying to chase every pop in every corner of the market or spreading myself out into guesses as to which might be the next one to pop.

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Bruush (BRSH) – July 28, 2022 | 1.66M Shares
IPO Price: $4.16
Debut Price: $2.85
Day 1 High: $3.00
Day 1 Low: $1.79
High Since Debut: $3.88
Low Since Debut: $1.79

Day 1 Action: BRSH showed us that despite the white-hot buzz around low-float IPOs, warrants are toxic for debuts, and not all IPOs are sure-thing hits. I had initially predicted that this one could have potential upside, but pulled my allocation request down to the minimum prior to the closing of the request window (as I shared with you all in a mid-week update), and when I received a full allocation, combined with the pre-debut indication substantially below the IPO price, and heavy sell-side imbalance; it was clear that we weren’t going to see any immediate run-up from the open. As expected, the stock plummeted on the open from $2.85 (with a very brief touch of $3.00), to an opening low of $2.38, followed by a brief bounce to $2.74, and an ensuing drop down to $2.22 before making a VWAP rally up to $2.56. Based on what we saw with MAIA, and the conditions of the market for IPO debuts, one could be forgiven if they started building a position on any of these drops (as I did), so long as they reserved additional funds to add should the stock continue to fall out (it did).
We generally see Day 1 droppers rally harder on Day 2 when they have little or no sustained rally on Day 1… so as BRSH continued down, I added to my position throughout the day, though my end of day order at $2.05 inexplicably didn’t fill, I still maintained my cost basis at a point where I was confident that a Day 2 rally would deliver substantial returns.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 was no surprise, with a 4:00 AM EST pre-market spike up to $3.65 – an ideal time to bank profits for early-bird traders, but unfortunate for accounts that don’t start trading until 7:00 AM EST (I was trading this in my ETrade, so had to hold out). I took some profits right at 7:00 AM EST, to reduce exposure in case we didn’t see a rebound run in after hours – it did drop as low as $2.42 in pre-market before later running back up to break $3.00 heading into 9:00 AM and again ran to $3.00 on the opening bell (this is where I took profits with a trailing stop). Higher conviction traders who held through the opening push and subsequent dip were rewarded with the biggest rally of the day, as BRSH caught fire and ran up to a top at $3.88 before quickly crashing back down to the $3.00 level, and steadily bled out from there.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership. +++

Magic Empire Gobal (MEGL) – August 5, 2022 | 5M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $50.00
Day 1 High: $235.95
Day 1 Low: $49.25
High Since Debut: $235.95
Low Since Debut: $49.25
Watch the Live-Stream Replay Here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjW6mle5h24

Day 1 Action: This was THE IPO of the year so far, after HKD re-wrote the rules of what we can expect from the debut of a little-known Chinese financial firm, and EVERYONE wanted to trade this one. What ensued was nothing short of expectations, as the stock debuted at $50.00 on 15k shares and after a momentary dip to $49.25, was halted on volume back at $50.00 – an opening move I can’t recall seeing since trading these low-float IPOs. The initial sell-side imbalance threw me off a little, and I switched my strategy from an all-in on the debut (with a conservative risk-averse amount to begin with), to a strategy of laddered-down orders in case we saw a drop down into a halt. I made sure to put a starter order in above the debut price to ensure I got in, so while none of my ladder-plays filled, I was able to successfully get myself into the trade: and most of the Premium Members following the live stream appeared to have joined me in what was ultimately a very successful entry.

The stock was halted for a full 1hr 20m and opened again at $100.00; instantly halting again at $105.00 – I decided to take profits at the first halt, as I could see this was going to be halted for the majority of the day, and had a sick daughter to pick up early from school: a reminder that trading IPOs on the debut can easily be a full-day chore and requires devoted attention. The second halt lasted 45 minutes, and opened at $145.00, briefly dipping to $143 before running again into an upside halt at $159.00.
For novice traders, this may have been fairly frustrating, as they struggled to exit their positions, and likely they have learned how to trade through halts going forward: HINT: set a limit order during the halt at any price below where you think it will open.
The third halt opened at $195 and again halted to the upside at $214, and was of the 5 minute variety. Had I held any of my position at this point, I would have applied my “3-Halt Rule” – under which I sell whatever I have left of my position after the 3rd upside halt (typically I will sell a portion of my position out of each halt).
This 4th upside halt (5th overall), was another 5 minute halt, and it opened at $214.50, touched $235.95, and dropped down to halt at $203.87, demonstrating why I don’t like to take my chances after 3 halts upwards. The ensuing halts closed at $198.20, $150.72, and $102 respectively, and despite a couple small reversal halts back up to $124, the stock bottomed out through a series of downside halts to $70.00. But in a sign of some resiliency, it rallied back up to $142 through 3 upside halts, before giving up some steam again to close the day at $97.00.
Fantastically, at no point in the day did MEGL trade uninterrupted for a full minute without halting – this was not an easy one to trade, and took a lot of patience.

But that wasn’t the end of the Day 1 action, after entering after-hours trading at $97, and baselining for about 20 minutes, MEGL began a momentous rally up to $198.20, finishing after-hours at $192.00.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 is Monday… we’ll see what happens

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership. Recent IPO Runners:

We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.

Honestly, there were so many recent IPO runners last week that it’s impossible to cover them all – it was the primary theme of the week after what HKD, then MAIA, then MGAM did… here are a few that we were tracking in Premium:

Ostin Technology (OST)
Catalyst: LPX + Market Trend
Type: IPO
IPO Date: April 27, 2022
IPO Price: $4.80
LPX Date: July 27, 2022
LPX Period: 90 Days
Historical LPX Notes: No meaningful rally after the IPO run
Free Float: 6.9M Shares
Outstanding Shares: 13.5M shares
Close day before vol: $1.76
High of the Day on vol: $3.39
Recap: OST was on-watch as an LPX play as of last week, and despite attempts to pump the stock with fluffy PR, had only seen a modest run to $1.84 prior to Tuesday’s rip up to a high of $3.39. Often times we see a delay in PR drops to runs in these trades, so if you see a few PR drops in coordination with an LPX date, and no corresponding rally, consider being patient for a few more days and even adding any dips.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Intelligent LIving Group (ILAG)
Catalyst: Recent Stealth IPO
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 13, 2022
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: Not Relevant
LPX Period: Not Relevant
Historical LPX Notes: This was not an LPX play
Free Float: 8.7M
Outstanding Shares: 18.06M
High since IPO: $26.40
Low since IPO: $1.65

Recap: OST was a Stealth IPO debut that offered a user-friendly entry and exit, and crashed out on Day 2 – a relatively quick turnaround for one of these setups with no substantial rebound rally since the debut crash.
This one caught two runs last week, as it ran on Tuesday along with nearly every other low-float Chinese stock (not just IPOs), and rallied again on Friday on sympathy with MEGL.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Heart Test Laboratories (HSCS)
Catalyst: Recent Low Float IPO
Type: IPO
IPO Date: June 15, 2022
IPO Price: $4.25 per Unit
LPX Date: Not Relevant
LPX Period: Not Relevant
Historical LPX Notes: This was not an LPX play
Free Float: 5.93M
Outstanding Shares: 8.24M
High since IPO: $6.00
Low since IPO: $1.15

Recap: HSCS was one of the many recent IPOs that got run by algos and trading rooms last week purely on account of being a recent IPO with a low-float, as this setup attracted runs across a wide range of tickers throughout the week. We can go back to Monday and Tuesday’s charts on this one to see evidence of accumulation in volume spikes, and a ramp up in volume going into Wednesday’s spike was the tip-off for the ensuing rip from around $1.80 to a high of $6.00 – one of the expert traders in the Discord group alerted this trade in time for me to enter at $1.80, and being short-armed and scared off by a large sell-order just above the $2.00 mark, I took tiny profits way to early and missed the run… silly me: when a trend is hot, it’s worth staying in with at least a partial position for further gains: something to bear in mind if the run in low-float tickers continues into next week.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Other recent IPOs on the move:

So many I can’t list them, it would be easier to list the ones that have NOT yet run, but I’m gonna save those for next week’s Weekly Preview newsletter.

“I’m gonna go ahead and predict that we see a lot of activity in recent low-float IPOs, especially those that haven’t run yet. I’ll go into more ideas in this week’s Weekly Preview newsletter and Live Stream on Monday.”

Actually, I posted that last week in the Premium Member’s Recap … seems like that prediction worked out pretty well.

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There’s not subtle way to say it – last week was a pivotal week for IPO trading that is likely to have reverberations that impact upcoming debuts for weeks, if not for the remainder of the year. The meteoric run of HKD – which, in case you missed it, debuted at $13 on July 15, 2022 after pricing at $7.80, and touched $485 in Friday’s trading session. As expected, euphoria quickly spread to the other low-float IPOs that debuted last week, and I expect that we’re going to see a lot of attention on any low-float IPOs that debut this week.

Experienced IPO traders will be fast to point out that runs like HKD are not just anomalies: they are also the result of a behind-the-scenes setup that is far different than the retail-driven runs we saw in the follow-up IPOs: understanding the dynamics behind a Stealth IPO is critical to trading these plays, and recognizing that for every HKD, there’s a VRAX, which can quickly turn a profitable trade into a deep cut that bleeds out mercilessly with only the slight glimmer of hope that a rebound arrives to bail you out of a heavy bag-holding position.

In the following weeks, I am sure we will see a handful of true Stealth IPO setups, and am also confident that many of the non-Stealth low-float IPOs that have been waiting in the wings will ride the coat-tails of the recent success stories and proceed with their initial public offerings. The result will be a mixed bag of substantial wins, coupled with steep sell-offs as the debut trade gets played out with higher debut premiums and less upside as more traders pile into the opening bid. Understanding the dynamics behind each IPO will be increasingly critical, and I’ll be working hard to bring you my research and insights in hopes to help you identify and execute profitable trades on the next string of IPOs.

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Twitter Milestone Reached! 2,000+ followers!

Just wanted to thank you all for helping promote the IPOWarriors Twitter account – with your support, we managed to broach and fly past the 2,000 follower mark: an accomplishment I share with all of you who have been supporting the platform over the past two years. Please continue to like/retweet/comment on our Tweets going forward.

https://twitter.com/WarriorIpo

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

MAIA Biotechnologies (MAIA) – July 28, 2022 | 1.66M Shares
IPO Price: $5.00
Debut Price: $4.25
Day 1 High: $4.68
Day 1 Low: $3.78
High Since Debut: $7.44
Low Since Debut: $3.78

Day 1 Action: This one started out as we generally expect a typical biotech-bust IPO to debut: below the IPO price at $4.25 with a sell-side imbalance, and an opening dip down as low as $3.78. With volume trailing off after the first 30 minutes or so of trading, a failed return to VWAP and subsequent sell-off… but something else happened in the market right at that point: HKD broke $100 and day traders started keying in on low-float IPOs – MAIA was in the right place at the right time, and a rally ensued to bring it back up above the opening print to a high of $4.68 on the day. It would fall back to the $4.00 level before rallying a little bit into the close to finish Day 1 at $4.46

Day 2 Action: Day 2 – no pre-market pop, and no initial breakout, but when HKD opened and ran into its first halt upwards to touch $254, day traders started pumping and piling into MAIA, sending it on a rally over the $5 level… when HKD continued its unprecedented moonshot well north of $450, MAIA traders joined the party, with a breakout to touch $7.44 before it sold off to close at $5.80

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership. +++

Mobile Global Esports (MGAM) – July 29, 2022 | 1.5M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $4.50
Day 1 High: $14.89
Day 1 Low: $4.03
High Since Debut: $14.89
Low Since Debut: $4.03
Watch the Live-Stream Replay Here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spJ6aAY9rX0

Day 1 Action: MGAM had the incredible fortune to be a low-float IPO debuting on the same day as the HKD lift-off that generated a sense of FOMO in IPO trading that, as I said earlier in this newsletter, will likely impact the next string of IPOs for possibly several weeks to come (some in good ways, others may set very dangerous traps).
MGAM displayed its confidence early, with a pre-debut indication that showed a strong buy-side imbalance and a healthy debut-premium for a non-Stealth setup at $4.50. The opening print moved a reasonable 122k shares, and from there, the stock halted up to $4.95 and then opened at $5.65, touched $5.88, and then proceeded to flag for a couple minutes at the $5.00 level, before IPO allocation holders likely sold off int a halt at $4.81. Interestingly, many traders, including myself, had stop-losses placed just under the $5.00 level that did not get filled, as the bid price fell below the stop-loss price faster than orders could get filled at higher limit order prices (I guess). That turned out to be a fortunate occurrence, as the stock then baselined at the $4.30 level before embarking on a sustained rally – likely on the back of HKD’s stratospheric climb, with just about every trading group pumping this one into a frenzied run that topped out at $12.57 in regular trading hours, and climbing in after-hours trading to a high of $14.89.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 is Monday… we’ll see what happens

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership. +++ Recent IPO Runners:

We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.

AMTD Digital (HKD)
Catalyst: Stealth IPO
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 15, 2022
IPO Price: $7.80
LPX Date: Not Relevant
LPX Period: Not Relevant
Historical LPX Notes: This is not an LPX play: likely underwriter over-allotment
Free Float: 16M shares according to the F-1 Filing – actual seems to be much less
Outstanding Shares: numbers seem to be off… but 201M
Close day before vol: $76.69
High of the Day on vol: $484.99
Recap: HKD defied all conventional logic beyond understanding it as a Stealth setup executed to an extreme. I wrote up an extensive piece on this yesterday, so better if you just go read it here:
https://ipowarriors.com/hkd-conspiracy-theory/

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership. +++

Virax Biolabs (VRAX)
Catalyst: Stealth IPO
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 21, 2022
IPO Price: $5.00
LPX Date: Not Relevant
LPX Period: Not Relevat
Historical LPX Notes: This was not an LPX play
Free Float: 6.15M
Outstanding Shares: 11.37M
High since IPO: $29.00
Low since IPO: $5.40

Recap: VRAX was a classic Stealth IPO – priced at $5.00, debuted at $20, and moved around with high volatility between lows in the $9s and highs in the low $20s until it broke out to $29 on Friday… only to then get the rug-pull that all Stealth IPOs eventually experience, closing the day at $5.40

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Nano Labs (NA)
Catalyst: Broken Stealth IPO
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July !2, 2022
IPO Price: $11.50
LPX Date: Not Relevant
LPX Period: Not Relevat
Historical LPX Notes: This was not an LPX play
Free Float: 1.77M
Outstanding Shares: 61.23M
High since IPO: $13.40
Low since IPO: $6.30

Recap: NA is an interesting anomaly in the seemingly obvious Stealth setups: underwritten by none other than AMTD Global (HKD’s sister company), and sporting an ultra-low float of just 1.77M shares, this one delivered a pathetic debut far below the IPO price, with only short-lived pumps to broach the $11.50 level where it was sold to IPO buyers.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Other recent IPOs on the move:

Tenon Medical (TNON): Low: $1.88 | High: $2.60

Tivic Health Systems (TIVC): Low: $1.90 | High : $2.47

I’m gonna go ahead and predict that we see a lot of activity in recent low-float IPOs, especially those that haven’t run yet. I’ll go into more ideas in this week’s Weekly Preview newsletter and Live Stream on Monday.

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Once again, all the non-Stealth IPOs were pulled or rescheduled, and the only debut that manged to consummate its listing was a Stealth play. The market itself rallied for much of the week, though Friday brought a rather dramatic pullback, as the European Central Bank shocked international markets with a 50 basis point hike in interest rates.

We also saw some action in recent low-float IPOs, as the lockup expiration play (LPX) delivered with alarming accuracy on my lead-LPX pick for the week from Monday’s Premium newsletter. As traders seem reluctant to take long term positions in anything under the current market conditions, it seems that SPACs, IPOs, and other low-float targets will continue to garner substantial attention going forward. I’ll continue to slowly build positions in recent low-float IPOs that are near bottoms and approaching or recently passed their LPX periods.

Also want to throw a shout-out to the IPOWarriors Discord channel – which is open to FREE members for general chat, with the Premium Room reserved for live trading IPOs and discussing upcoming IPOs.

For those who’d like to join, here’s the link:
https://discord.com/channels/997494401532186734/997494401532186737

(if you’re a Premium Member and haven’t been added to the Premium Members Room, please DM me with your email address you used to subscribe).

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 21, 2022 | 1.35M Shares
IPO Price: $5.00
Debut Price: $20.00
Day 1 High: $26.07
Day 1 Low: $16.00
High Since Debut: $26.07
Low Since Debut: $9.00

Day 1 Action: By the time this one debuted, we had clearly identified it as a Stealth IPO, and were not surprised to see it open for trading at $20.00 on roughly 15k shares. The sell-side imbalance indicated a move to the downside off the open, and it pushed down to $19.00 before the low float-kicked in and sent it back up to $25.60 before pulling back to $22.16 before bouncing back up to the current high of $26.07 before losing momentum and selling off to $18.54 before turning around and reclaiming VWAP at $22.04, but that was all the upward momentum it could muster, and it trailed off for the remainder of the day to a low in after hours down at $16.00 – a nice entry for an early Day 2 swing.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 looked promising going into market open, with the price back up to the $19.00 level and a brief trip over $20 to $20.12 in the opening minutes, that was the high of the day, which then sold off down to $15.45 before a surge in buying sent it up into a halt at $17.91 that opened at $19.00 and peaked at $19.14 before quickly cooling off again, and then capitulating to likely short hits as it fell down to a low of $9.00 before bouncing back up over $13 and closing the day at $10.34.

Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.


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Recent IPO Runners:

We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.

Sidus Space (SIDU)
Catalyst: NASA Contract: Sidus Space Fabricates Hardware In Support Of Nasa’s Artemis Program And Their Space Launch System Manned Vehicle
Type: IPO
IPO Date: December 14, 2022
IPO Price: $5.00
LPX Date: June 14, 2022 (based on 180 day lockup)
LPX Period: 180 days
Historical LPX Notes: PR on June 15, 2022 ran the price over two days to $9.22.
Outstanding Shares: 16.87M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $2.83
Recent High Since Catalyst: $5.04
Recap: SIDU has been catching a string of headlines related to NASA contracts in which it is involved.
Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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Yoshitsu Corporation (TKLF)
Catalyst: Acquisition announcement
Type: IPO
IPO Date: January 18, 2022
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: July 18, 2022
LPX Period: 180 days
Historical LPX Notes: None.
Free Float: 6.25M
Shares: 36.25M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $1.53
High of the Day on vol: $2.78
Recap: We called out TKLF on Monday in the Preview Newsletter as an upcoming LPX play this week, and it delivered right on schedule, ok, like 4 days later, but that’s what we’re expecting on LPX trades. Remember, the ideal accumulation period for a swing strategy is generally going to be optimal BEFORE LPX date, buying dips and knives down a few weeks prior to LPX. If you want to scalp these trades, then make sure to be watching a scanner at 7:00 AM, 8:00 AM, and 9:00 AM EST in pre-market to try and catch the initial moves, recognize the ticker as a recent low-float IPO that’s hit LPX, and get in before the secondary move. In this case, you could have gotten in under $1.90 on the pullback from the initial move, and ridden the spike off market open to $2.78.
Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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AMTD Digital (HKD)
Catalyst: None
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 15, 2022
IPO Price: $7.80
LPX Date: January 15, 2023
LPX Period: 180 days
Historical LPX Notes: None.
Free Float: 16M
Shares: 185M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $20.32
High of the Day on vol: $70.98
Recap: This was a recent Stealh IPO from the previous Friday, which debuted at a significant premium to it’s IPO and ran a bit on Days 1 and 2, but was sold off on Day 3 from a high at $33.03 to a low of $13.52. Ostensibly, it kind of looked like the sell-off had already happened, but in retrospect, it appears that it was merely a head-fake to shake out traders, and never really got close to the original IPO price. Another hint may have been in the total volume traded on the sell-off, with 16M shares announced in the IPO, volume on the Day 3 drop was just 2.256M shares, so we didn’t see the kind of massive shorts-plus-dumpers that we see when these trades hit the real Kill-Day.
In the days that preceded Friday’s massive run, we saw the share price hold in the $18-23 range: still well above the IPO price, and within the range we saw following the IPO spike. Then the skyrocket was launched, as the share price rallied all the way from $19.71 to $70.98 on Friday: clearly the Delayed Stealth play we’ve been talking about was in effect: this being the biggest single-day spike we’ve seen.
Looking Ahead: To view this content, please subscribe to a Premium Membership.

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CPI data was the dominant force in this week’s market (again), coming in on Tuesday morning even higher than the lofty numbers foretasted by the ‘experts’ and causing a market-wide dip across all sectors (again). The good news is that many, including my imaginary friend, Jim Cramer (I imagine he’s my friend), calling this “the bottom”. We already knew that we’d likely see at least half of the IPOs on the calendar at the beginning of the week get pulled or rescheduled. In the end, what started as a table of 8 ended up dwindling down to just 2-3 for us to trade.

The good news is that, as predicted, the IPOs we did see come through to market under such adverse conditions were, indeed, Stealth setups. Depending on whether you received allocations of IPO shares or played the debut, you probably agree with that statement. More encouragingly, is the idea that if we HAVE in fact, reached the bottom of the bear market, then we could be in shape to finally get some attractive mainstream IPOs with retail brand recognition around the corner. Anyway, until that day comes, we’ll keep finding win opportunities in low-float land.

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FINAL REMINDER: This is the last free newsletter featuring premium content that will be sent out the non-subscribers.

To continue receiving the full version of this newsletter, please subscribe to the IPO Warriors Premium Membership before July 17, 2022. Spaces are limited to 300 members and significant lifetime discounts are provided for the first 100 monthly and 100 annual subscribers. Details and coupon codes here:

https://ipowarriors.com/ipo-warriors-premium/

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IPOWARRIORS DISCORD IS COMING!!

Ok, so I’m finally going to relent to popular demand and move the IPOWarriors Reddit thread over to Discord. I’m still playing with the idea of how exactly I’m going to balance this between the Premium and Free memberships, but roughly my thinking is that for everyday trading and loose discussion about the IPO schedule, it will be open to all members, and when it comes to live trading the IPO debuts, that will occur in the Premium Members section. Stay tuned for more details.

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Nano Labs (NA) – July 12, 2022 | 1.77M Shares
IPO Price: $11.50
Debut Price: $7.61
Day 1 High: $13.34
Day 1 Low: $7.61
High Since Debut: $13.34
Low Since Debut: $6.32

Day 1 Action: There must have been some confusion on this one off the debut – the market maker had the shares paired up at $9.60 before opting to wait and ultimately deliver the opening trade at just $7.61 on 66k shares. It immediately halted up from there, with an insta-halt at $8.37 that opened at $9.01 and ran steadily up to a top at $13.31 before receding back down to hover in the $9.50 to $11.00 range for most of the remainder of the afternoon: pushing up to $12.50 before the closing bell.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 started out hinting at a possible rally, after opening slightly down from the previous day’s close at $9.77 and pushing up to a hard sell wall at $12.00 before getting dropped down to $8.80 and base lining around the $9.00 mark for most of the remainder of the day outside of a failed walk up to VWAP in the mid afternoon, closing at $8.80 and continuing to drop in after hours.

Looking Ahead: The rest of the week brought further downside, with new lows established around 10:00 AM EST at $6.35 before climbing back up the mid $7’s later in the day. After hours news on announcing an early stage investors agreement to cancel warrants good for 23M shares at $0.26 per share and another agreeing to cancel warrants for 11.5m shares at $0.26 per share appeared to contribute to a bump up to $9.00 in after hours. The next day saw volume shrivel up, with spotty trading and a gradual decline to a close just below $7. I dunno, I still feel like this one hasn’t quite shown us what it’s got in store for us, I’m just not sure how far they will let it drop before they rip it.

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Intelligent Living Group (ILAG) – July 13, 2022 | 5.06M Shares
IPO Price: $4.00
Debut Price: $22.00
Day 1 High: $26.40
Day 1 Low: $2.21
High Since Debut: $26.40
Low Since Debut: $2.21

Day 1 Action: As predicted, this was a Stealth IPO that presented a generous gift to all those who received any allocation at all, and provide little in the way of upside-to-risk for those who tempted fate once the stock began trading. An opening move from $22.01 to $24.00 failed to deliver a halt by a single penny, and it appears that algos kept this one actively trading for what must be a record for a “$4.00 Special” that failed to halt in the opening minutes, holding steady in a razor thin margin around the $21-22 mark for a solid 24 minutes before finally capitulating into a halt down that reversed at $18.50 and slowly climbed back up through a halt to hit a high at $26.40.
But it was game over from there, as shorts piled in on top of sellers to toss the share price off a cliff into a close at $6.12 with further downside achieved in after hours: shares trading as low as $5.52.

Day 2 Action: Those who took the risk of placing an order down at the end of day crash under $6, and were able to wake up and offload their positions in the wee hours of pre-market trading, stood to take a tidy little profit as the price ran up as high as $8.53 before leveling back into the the $6 range for the market open. From there, the sell-off continued, and forecasts of the eventual $2 price tag on this one came sooner than expected, as the share price bottomed out at $2.21 before closing the day $2.54.

Looking Ahead: Hard to imagine this one dropping much further than it’s current low without engaging in some kind of short lived rally at some point. If we look at JSCE, we saw a similar open and drop that bottomed out on day 5 at $3.61 before embarking on a monster rally that peaked nearly 3 weeks later at $16.19 and hit $17.82 nearly a month after that. It’s tempting to take a small high-risk play on this one down below $3, though I will hold off a bit and see if they let this fall a little further to as close to $2 or below as possible before I feel even remotely ‘safe’ taking a position on garbage of this variety.

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AMTD Digital (HKD) – July 15, 2022 | 16M Shares
IPO Price: $7.80
Debut Price: $13.00
Day 1 High: $19.70
Day 1 Low: $7.80
High Since Debut: $19.70
Low Since Debut: $7.80

Day 1 Action: With most traders’ attention already focused on the weekend, HKD debuted on super-thin volume of just 15k shares with a rich premium at $13.00 – though perhaps counterintuitive, this is exactly the kind of setup I look for in any IPO debut – especially one with direct ties to Asia, and HKD didn’t disappoint. It immediately halted up to $14.18 and opened from there at $16.25. I was in at the halt, and when it didn’t follow with an immediate second halt, I exited both of my positions at roughly $15.00 combined for a nice $2 win on a relatively quick trade, and after failing get an attractive entry point over the following dip down to $13.80 before a run to $18.42, and with tiny volume and large spreads on both sides of the order bar, I decided to pack up my wife and kids and headed to the beach for an early weekend.
Those who stuck around and held on a bit longer were rewarded with a run at around 2:30 PM EST to the high of the day at $19.70 from which it pulled back into the close at $16.21

Day 2 Action: This was a Friday debut, so Day 2 will deliver its verdict on Monday.

Looking Ahead: Completely unpredictable, though the real float on this ticker has yet to start trading. With 16M shares in the free float, and just 309k shares traded on Day 1, this one is likely to bounce around on choppy volume until the large block shareholders decide to cash in their chips… at that point, we should expect this to quickly return to the low single digits.

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Recent IPO Runners:

We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.

For Expert Commentary and Trading Insights on LPX plays, follow Aly Angel: Twitter: https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides! https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

SaverOne (SVRE)
Catalyst: closed initial public offering
IPO Date: June 3, 2022
IPO Price: $4.13 per unit
Underwriter’s Overalotment Expiration: July 18, 2022
LPX Date: September 1, 2022 (based on 90 day lockup)
LPX Period: 90 days
Historical LPX Notes: none
Outstanding Shares: 3.99M per Stock Analysis
Close on Day Before PR: $1.98
Near Term High After PR: $4.17 on Day 5
Recap: SVRE was a broken IPO just a month an a half ago, that had priced it’s units at $4.13 and immediately sold off to an eventual bottom at $1.81 just two days before releasing a headline announcing “five new agreements with leading companies” that initiated a sustained run over 5 market sessions to high of $4.17 on Thursday. This coincides with the underwriter’s option to purchase additional units, presumably allowing them to sell out with a profit. With a low float and all shares outstanding in the free float, one has to wonder if a secondary offering is in the mix.
Looking Ahead: With no further outstanding shares, and ultimately being a garbage company, this is running on . Friday saw this one sell off further, and could just as easily be heading back to the land of the forgotten pump play as it could find life in another pump. I’m not trying to guess which way, and will instead be looking for the next low float IPO to run.

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For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link

The theme of the past few weeks in IPO land has been to reschedule new offerings while pumping the low float tickers from the past year, and this past week was no exception. NA, VRAX, WLDS, and ONFO have all been moved back to next week (and are all still available on WeBull as of Friday’s close. There was one sneaky spin-off IPO, which managed to elude my scanners and is not a setup I typically trade: while it looked particularly profitable on paper, the reality is that only a tiny number of shares were traded until it had already reached a relatively neutral risk-reward level.

So while there hasn’t been much movement in new IPO debuts, the action in recently debuted IPOs has intense, which we expected given the deluge of recent IPOs that have hit or are approaching their 90 and 180-day lockup expiration (“LPX”) dates. For more insights on how to trade these opportunities, I highly recommend you follow Aly Angel on Twitter, and watch her guides.

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REMINDER: To continue receiving the full version of this newsletter, please subscribe to the IPO Warriors Premium Membership before July 17, 2022. Spaces are limited to 300 members and significant lifetime discounts are provided for the first 100 monthly and 100 annual subscribers. Details and coupon codes here:

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

United Maritime Corporation (USEA) – July 6, 2022 | 1.5M Shares
IPO Price: N/A
Debut Price: $1.00
Day 1 High: $4.85
Day 1 Low: $0.80
High Since Debut: $10.11
Low Since Debut: $0.80

Day 1 Action: One thing that makes these setups nearly impossible to trade, is that they do not participate in a normal IPO pre-debut indication/balancing: they simply start trading at 9:30 AM EST on the day they debut, with the opening trade commencing whenever a buyer and seller pair their orders. This one started at $1.00 an immediately halted down to $0.80 on 154 shares traded (yes, tiny volume, so before you go having wild fantasies of loading up on USEA at $0.80, consider that the total order value of the opening minute before the halt was somewhere around $100 or so). It opened up from the halt at $2.67, and quickly halted again up to $3.06 on just over 2k shares, and again halted from $3.50 to $3.77 on 6k shares on the way up to an open at $4.70 before peaking at $4.5 and finally trading fluidly for most of the remainder of the day: albeit on low volume, with large spreads, and choppy moves from a trough that bottomed at $2.23 on the pullback from the initial spike, to a rebound back up to $3.73 and a trail off for the remainder of the day to as low as $2.37 before closing at $2.90. At this point, some savvy traders had built positions for a possible Day 2 rally… those that did were kindly rewarded. Many likely sold into the after-hours rally as it ran up as high as $4.76 and was clearly poised to make a run on Day 2.

Day 2 Action: Day 2 started out relatively quiet in the early pre-market window of 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM EST, but once the 7:00 AM EST brokers opened up their trading desks, the show came out in force on this one, as it launched a momentus rally that peaked at $8.79 before the market opened for regular trading hours, and pumped further to a Day 2 high at $8.89 before the 10:00 AM EST mark. With wild fluctuations in the $6.00 to $8.70 range holding throughout the day, where is was going next was anybody’s guess.

Looking Ahead: Day 3 brought further upside in pre-market trading, reaching the all-time-high of $10.11 just before 7:30 AM EST before selling off into the normal market hours to a bottom at $6.65 with a return to VWAP at the end of the day and a close on Friday at $7.50, it may appear that this one has stabilized around the $6-7 mark. But with what is clearly a tiny float and a target for day traders, algos, and pumpers, the potential for this one to spike up to further levels on the upside is severely tempered by a high likelihood that this gets dumped at any moment. I’m not sure where to look for guidance on where this ‘should’ trade, but might look at the PE ratio of 5.22 per Stock Analysis as relatively high compared to OP and DSX (two shipping companies with EPS of 0.01 and 0.93 respectively – not coincidentally, OP was a spin-off from DSX that is now being re-acquired by DSX after an IPO that produced equally volatile results).
My guess is this one ends up in the $1 bin, but don’t know how high it might spike before it gets there.

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Recent IPO Runners:

We often see recent IPOs, especially the low-float variety, make monster runs after consolidation following their IPO. Often, these moves coincide with their 90 and 180 day lockup expiration periods (“LPX Plays”): this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.

For Expert Commentary and Trading Insights on LPX plays, follow Aly Angel: Twitter: https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides! https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Maris Tech (MTEK)
Catalyst: Purchase order from SpaceIL
Type: IPO
IPO Date: February 2, 2022
IPO Price: $5.25
LPX Date: June 2, 2022 (based on 120 day lockup)
LPX Period: 120 days
Historical LPX Notes: Recent breakout topped previous spikes on purchase order news events on June 9, 2022 and June 29, 2022.
Outstanding Shares: 7.82M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $1.18
High of the Day on vol: $2.09
Recap: MTEK has been on watch ever since it hit LPX and a string of purchase order headlines have failed to produce anything more than modest pops from the baseline of $1.10 to tops in the $1.50 to $2.00 range. This recent news delivered the most dramatic run so far, and the stock has manged to show some resilience off the pull-back, possible due to a delayed squeeze and attention being drawn into the recent low-float IPO setup.
Looking Ahead: Day traders, algos. and pumping activity remains on this ticker, with a volume profile that is largely concentrated under the $2.00 mark. If it can break through that level on substantial news, then it could soar. Otherwise, I have to believe it drops as volume dissipates as shorts limit upside movement.

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Inspira Technologies (IINN)
Catalyst: New device announcement followed by purchase order announcement
Type: IPO
IPO Date: July 14, 2021
IPO Price: $5.25
LPX Date: IPO LPX already expired. However, a POS AM filing on April 14, 2022 provided additional underwriter warrants that are locked up for 6 months
LPX Period: 180 days
Historical LPX Notes: Recent breakouts on contract news have failed to deliver runs nearly as high as the initial purchase order news on October 16, 2021 (which coincided with a 90 day LPX).
Free Float: 7.4MOutstanding
Shares: 10.65M per Stock Analysis
Close day before vol: $1.24
High of the Day on vol: $2.65
Recap: IINN has been on watch ever since it’s IPO and subsequent skyrocketing run back in October 2021, with several pops since then: generally on new product developments and purchase order news. This stock seems to be loaded with potential catalysts, and is a company I have continued to load up on and cash out profits when it runs and then recedes. (Disclosure, I am currently holding a substantial long position in this, but have taken some profits on last week’s jump and am holding a longer position in both commons and warrants which is currently in the red).
Looking Ahead: Day traders, algos. and pumping activity remains on this ticker, with a volume profile that is has a large concentration of positions in the $2.10 to $2.50 range, and another cluster of positions in the $3.00 +/-$0.50 and yet another cluster in the $5.00-6.00 range. While there are many bag holders caught in this one, this stock has become somewhat of a cult favorite, with many believing that the true catalyst of FDA approval for their primary product expected in 2023 will deliver a significant financial windfall opportunity (I am one of those, but have sold and reestablished my position in common shares several times on runs, and plan to continue this strategy going forward.With the addition of a new product line, we are likely to see further distribution/purchase order headlines over the next couple of month, along with FDA submissions for their ECLS device in H1 2023 looming in the near future, this is one I like for continuously loading on dips and selling into rips.

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Other recent IPOs on the move:

Dermata (DRAM): Low: $0.46 | High: $0.87

Evofem (EVFM): Low: $0.86 | High : $1.57

American Rebel (AREB): low: $070 | High: $1.75

Heartcore (HTCR): low $2.31 | High: $3.07

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link

IPO Trading Review for the Week of
June 27, 2022 – July 1, 2022

Last week we again saw nearly the full slate of scheduled IPOs get rolled into the future, with only one IPO debuting according to plan: a developmental stage mining company that showed little appetite from institutional investment for new share offerings for relatively unproven companies. While it did fit the profile of being a “mainstream IPO” – with tier-1 underwriters involved, it was a poor litmus test of the market’s interest in IPOs, though its dismal performance, if anything, served as further warning for any prospective mainstream IPOs to continue holding off their offerings until financial climates substantially improve.

One potentially positive piece of news for the IPO market emerged in a Tweet from Dr. Michael Burry, in which he predicts a “bullwhip effect” may be in the works, which could result in deflation and force the Fed to back away from rate hikes:

”This supply glut at retail is the Bullwhip Effect. Google it. Worth understanding for your investing endeavors. Deflationary pulses from this- -> disinflation in CPI later this year –> Fed reverses itself on rates and QT –> Cycles.”

Should Dr. Burry be correct (again), this could manifest itself in a market where growth stocks rally, which would be a boon for the IPO market. Given the pent up backlog of companies waiting for conditions to improve so they can launch an IPO bid, we could see a deluge of IPOs going into the last half of the year… IF Dr. Burry’s forecast proves prescient. In the meantime, we still have a steady flow of low-float IPOs and LPX plays to focus on…

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REMINDER: The IPO Warriors Newsletter will be transitioning to a Premium (paid) model beginning on July 17, 2022 – a limited FREE newsletter will still be sent out, with a list of IPOs for the upcoming week, and brief recaps of the past week’s IPO debuts. To continue receiving the full version of this newsletter, please subscribe to the IPO Warriors Premium Membership before July 17, 2022. Spaces are limited to 300 members and significant lifetime discounts are provided for the first 100 monthly and 100 annual subscribers.
Details and coupon codes are provided here:

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Ok, Let’s take a look at what happened last week in IPO Land:

Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 29, 2022 | 14.4M Shares
IPO Price: $11.75
Debut Price: $11.79
Day 1 High: $12.00
Day 1 Low: $10.10
High Since Debut: $12.00
Low Since Debut: $8.32

Day 1 Action: Given that IE had already been delayed for a week, on top of which Jim Cramer directly slammed the IPO, it’s not all that surprising that this stock priced at the bottom of the range, and failed to attract much retail interest outside of short sellers rushing into to scalp the perceived weakness of this offering. While the stock did manage to debut with a slight premium to the IPO price at $11.79, and briefly appeared to want to rally as it touched $12.00, the stock managed to hold above the $11.50 level out the gate, and traders began looking for possible breakout triggers that never materialized, as ultimately the stock slid through a number of dips throughout the first day of trading to reach a bottom at $10.10 before rallying into the close as high as $11.15 – likely due to shorts covering their positions and other traders jumping into the short cover.

Day 2 Action: Day two brought additional pain to IE shareholders, as the sock continued to fall out of the gate, reaching a bottom at $8.25 before rebounding back up to nearly $10.00 before closing the day at $9.71.

Looking Ahead: This IPO continues to drop, as there appears to be little interest in owning a mining operation that is not directly tied to lithium mining, despite the intense need for copper – a primary metal mined by IE 0 – in the production of modern automobiles. I would expect that any legislation that gets signed with regards to bolstering America’s locally sourced materials could be a massive catalyst for this IPO. Otherwise, I’m not sure how we can make an argument that this company is worth more than whatever its market cap is when it has no revenue and it’s CEO is an infamous pump-and-dump specialist. This is one I just roll into my mental index of stocks, and we get some big news event that pumps all the mining companies, I’ll certainly take a shot on this down-beaten IPO.
One thing to bear in mind with mainstream IPOs, is that they do adhere to the customary 40 day quiet period, so I will have my eyes on August 3 or thereabout for the QPX (quiet period expiration) to possibly offer some redemption for this stock in the form of positive analyst coverage or an announcement on behalf of the company.

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LPX Recap:

Recent IPOs that moved shortly after or going into their lockup expiration periods: this is a play we actively track and discuss in the weekly preview newsletter.
by Aly Angel: https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides! https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

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NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)
Catalyst: Positive Alzheimer’s Drug Study
Type: IPO
IPO Date: 09-Dec-21
IPO Price: $6 sold as units
LPX Date: 07-Jun-22
LPX Period: 6 Month
Historical LPX Notes: ticker hit EP’s at day 102 – Reference 20F 14-Apr-22
90-day gen rule & 180-days + 6.5 m dir/ ofc and uw can be exercised
Exercise Price: $6 equal 100% of the IPO price per Unit
Outstanding Shares: 10,943,543 (per 20F)
Close day before vol: $1.70
High of the Day on vol: $3.30
Recap:
The EP’s remain at $6 per wx (ref 20F). This ticker ran at the 90 day and hit EP’s. The 180-day LPX has an additional 6.5m shares that can now be sold into the market.
Looking Ahead:
As with any multi-day runner, we are looking for trapping and an algo to continue volume. The volume died in the overall markets on July 1st, as expected. If the vol continues into next week, there is a high probability that we will see prices closer to the EP’s. As always, move stop losses up when you’re playing any multi-day, and remember that algos target both sides and create traps and SL raids, so you need to be looking left to not get stopped on a knife.

LPX tickers that hit new lows and have not had an LPX vol run

90-Day to 180-day example watch. This chart is typical.

Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)
Catalyst: Ranked in Houston Business Journal
Type: IPO
IPO Date: 11-Feb-22
IPO Price: $5.50
LPX Date: 12-May-22 and 180-day 10-Aug-22
LPX Period: 90-day
Exercise Price: $6.60
Outstanding Shares: 2,800,000 (per 10Q)
Close day before vol: $1.05
High of the Day on vol: $1.74
Historical Notes: Ticker had a vol hod $5.49 on 30-Mar-22, did not hit list price, but there was enough vol to move shares. This is w/ in the over-allotment (o/a) period and is commonly seen in the current market.
Looking Ahead:

We are watching for a low channel for loading into the 180-day LPX. There needs to be consolidation that holds, and I will usually buy on the second reversal (w/in the vol profile) channel. As always, respect your risk and set your stops.

Tickers that are close to the 180-day LPX date and are consolidating in a lower channel:

Maris Tech Ltd (MTEK)
IPO Date: 02-Feb-22
IPO Price: $4.20 for 3.2m wx
LPX Date: 02-Jun-22 & 01-Aug-22
LPX Period: 120-day & 180-day
Exercise Price: $5.25
Notes: has 2 mo, 6 mo, and 18 mo LPX dates
– Reference 20F 28-Apr-22, 424B4 03-Feb-22

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Yoshitsu Co. (TKLF)
IPO Date: 18-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 17-Jul-22
LPX Period: 180-day
Exercise Price: $4.80
Notes: 180-day Underwriter LPX w/ EP $4.80

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Hillstream BioPharma Inc. (HILS)
IPO Date: 12-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 02-Jun-22 & 01-Aug-22
LPX Period: 120-day & 180-day
Exercise Price: $5.00
Notes: 180-day for UW w/ EP $5.00 & 365 day for dir & ofc

Looking Ahead:
Consolidated reversals, close to the LPX dates are the current watch for a starter position.
These have a channel that is getting tighter, indicating a channel break soon. Below is an obvservation cut and the next level to watch would be a bounce off ATL’s. A channel break up is an indicator they are going to move it up, soon. The tighter the channel, the safer the build.
As always, SL’s save and grow accounts

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link