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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 11 – July 15, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 11 – July 15, 2022

July 11, 2022

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For the third week in a row, nearly every IPO that had been on the calendar the previous week has been rescheduled – most of them are on the slate for this week, but we’re already seeing casualties outright pulling their IPOs altogether (sorry WRNT, I guess even being a Network 1 Financial deal wasn’t enough).

I expect that by the end of the week, about half of the deals on the calendar get pushed back or cancelled, which is probably better anyway, since it will save us from trying to play deals that are most likely broken to begin with. On the upside, those that do make it to the gate, should have some positive momentum: either as a Stealth setup or perhaps even a company with genuine retail buzz/interest (we’re certainly more than overdue for one of those).

+++

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Nano Labs (NA) – July 12, 2022 | 1.77M Shares

  • Intelligent Living Group (ILAG) – July 13, 2022 | 5.06M Shares

  • Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 14, 2022 | 1.35M Shares

  • bioAffinity Group (BIAF) – July 14, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Treasure Global (TGL) – July 14, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Wireless Devices (WDLS) – July 15, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Onfolio (ONFO) – July 15, 2022 | 1.7M Units

  • AMTD Digital (HKD) – July 15, 2022 | 16M Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

Nano Labs (NA) – July 12, 2022 | 1.77M Shares
Price Range:
$11.35 – $11/51
Offering Size:
$20M
Shares Outstanding:
53.67M

Industry: Semiconductors

Overview:
This chip designer specializes in producing ASIC chips for high memory intensive applications such as crypto mining and gaming, specifically citing ‘metaverse’ utilization.

Considerations: They’ve cut the deal in half since this one was first scheduled for July 6, 2022 – when I first covered this I felt like the setup was a bit odd: they still have the 2-for-1 shares arrangement, so the float is more like 3.54M shares at a price of $5.75, but I’m hearing this one is oversubscribed, and have put in for an above average allocation request on WeBull to see what kind of fill I get on my order.
Here;s what I wrote last time:
Had this company gone public as late as November 2021, the buzzwords associated with anything ‘crypto’ and ‘metaverse’, not to mention ‘microchips’, would have been enough to send it on a multi-day run off whatever debut it came to market with. But things have changed dramatically since then, with cryptos in full hibernation and everything ‘meta’ down significantly since the company formerly known as Facebook put fantasies straight out of Ready Player One into the spotlight. But that doesn’t mean this one should be ignored – the fact that it’s a Chinese company with a low float could be the sign of a stealth setup, although the lead underwriter has not proven that it can reliably deliver the kind of upside squeeze that we typically look for in Stealth setups (LIZI, EBON, MF, KUKE, OG) with secondary underwriters involved that are sort of hit-and-miss. Pricing the IPO up around the $10 mark also leaves quite a bit of room for it to fall off the debut, though given how many Stealth IPOs price at $4-5 only to debut at $15-25 or more, perhaps this could help prevent IPO allocation recipients from dumping prematurely.
This one is interesting enough to watch the debut indication and make a game-time decision from there as to whether I trade this off the debut once we see the volume and pre-debut indication price for the opening print. I will likely get some further insights into the availability of IPO shares prior to the debut, and will share that with Premium Members if before the launch if I can dig up some further information.

It’s also worth noting that this company reduced the size of it’s IPO from a target of $50M in June 2022 to the current size target of $37M – either they couldn’t fill the book at $50M and it’s not a Stealth play, or they decided they could run their shenanigans more easily with 3.5M shares instead of 5M shares.
BUT, it’s also worth noting that each ADS represented in the IPO represent two class A ordinary shares. So in effect, their F-1 is representing 7M shares at a price of $4.75 – $6.25.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if some trading platforms have trouble with the ticker symbol being “NA” and simply list the stock as ‘Not Available’ (I’m looking squarely at YOU, WeBull).”

While I’m likely going to be tied up when this one debuts, I’ll have a close eye on it s a likely Stealth setup, and will try to play it off the debut if we see a healthy debut premium that’s not at a ridiculous level.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+1,958%% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-600% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
-10% for 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
negative – expanding
– Operating Profit:
negative – exanding

Financial Summery: The financials are both dated, and as a Chinese manufacturer, subject to fairly large anomalies concurrent with COVID lockdowns, which continue to impact China’s manufacturing sector. This company has also indicated that the majority of sales to date have come from domestic markets, and that they intend to use the proceeds of this IPO to subsidies international expansion into the US market.
Still, these financials are pretty wild: with positive cash flow and quadruple revenue gains offset by negative gross profits and negative net income.

Link to the F-1: https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-22-185115/
Note from the F-1:
Nano Labs Ltd, an exempted company incorporated with limited liability under the laws of the Cayman Islands (the “Company”), proposes to issue and sell to the several Underwriters named in Schedule I hereto (the “Underwriters”) an aggregate of [3,540,000] Class A ordinary shares, par value US$0.0001 per share, of the Company (the “Firm Shares”) in the form of [1,770,000] American Depositary Shares
So basically, the float will be 3.54M shares and the cost basis for IPO allocations will be around $5.75 depending on where they end up pricing the IPO.

Underwriters:
AMTD Global Markets, Maxim Group LLC, and Tiger Brokers

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MF EBON KUKE OG

Trading Strategy:
On the surface, we have to assume this has Stealth potential, and is therefore poised to get pumped at some point. What makes this one tricky is the way they have structured the ADS as a ‘two-for-one’ deal, as this effectively doubles the float while maintaining a limited number of shareholders. One might expect the debut price to be half of the IPO price, but if this ends up being a Stealth setup, even a debut of double the IPO price would not be abnormal.
At first I was hesitant to play this one, and I may simply be too busy in the moment this one goes live to actively buy the debut, but I’ve warmed up to this deal as a potential ripper that I would expect to debut at a premium and run if it’s not priced out of the ballpark on the opening print.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High

My Allocation Request: I’ve put in for a larger-than-minimal allocation request through WeBull on this one, but see no point in going further than the $500 limit simply because I shouldn’t get more than $100 or so worth of stock allocated if it’s a good deal, and don’t want to get stuck with more than $500 if they end up dumping full allocations on us.

+++.

Intelligent Living Applications (ILAG) – July 13, 2022 | 5.06M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00
Offering Size:
$25M
Shares Outstanding:
18.06M

Industry: Hardware

Overview:
This company sells locks manufactured in China.

Considerations: This is a Chinese company underwritten by Network 1 Financial. Historically, almost every Chinese IPO debuted by this underwriter has either opened at ridiculous premiums or opened at very high premiums and run to the moon over 1-2
days. Until that pattern breaks, I’ll keep asking for relatively healthy allocations.
You wanna look at their financials and a breakdown of the F-1? Be my guest, but as far as I’m concerned, the question is simply whether this is a Stealth IPO setup or not: and when It’s Network 1 Financial and a 5M@$5 offering, it’s not one I want to miss.
Ok, we’ll do the breakdown:

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-22% in 2019 vs 2018
– Gross Profits:
+14% in 2019 vs 2018 (on 10% GM)
– Gross Margin:
10% for 201

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Network 1 Financial

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST GSUN

Trading Strategy:
Like all potential Stealth IPO setups, the first thing I’m looking for is confirmation that it’s getting pumped in the pre-debut imbalance period: for an IPO priced at $5, I’m looking for a debut premium in the $8 – $17 range or so, with opening volume around 100k shares. A debut price lower than that makes me think it’s not a Stealth setup afterall, and any higher than that and it’s too risky to play the debut. We’ve seen recent Stealth setups open in the $19 – $25 range (TOP and GSUN), and then dip down before rebounding. It’s pretty hard to call the bottom on these, and there have been some that never really bounced, so it’s definitely a riskier trade, but if we do get an open above my range of comfort on the debut, I may try to pick off a reversal with a partial entry around $17 with a double-down around $13, though I’ll keep my risk limited if it comes to that.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

My Allocation Request: Full.

+++

Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 14, 2022 | 1.35M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00
Offering Size:
$6M
Shares Outstanding:
11.4M

Industry: Diagnostics

Overview:
This company is primarily involved in the sales and distribution of diagnostic test kits and PPE devices with operations in the UK, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Considerations: They’ve pushed this one back from July 6, 2022, and while an ultra-low float IPO with connections to Hong Kong and Singapore underwritten by Boustead would have been a red-hot setup even a few months back, at this point the Boustead name has been tarnished by less-than-spectacular debuts in VINE, HTCR, and ASNS… they need to bring a winner to market to re-establish interest in their ability to deliver pops off the debut, but I’m not hearing much positive sentiment from the street.
Here’s what I wrote earlier in the month:

Another company that would have been a lock to blow up off their debut had they IPO’d at the height of the pandemic – but with an ultra-low float and an underwriter that pretty much wrote the book on Stealth IPOs but has struggled to deliver a substantial runner over the past couple of months, it seems this one could be poised to offer an ideal setup for a series of halts to the upside (provided that it doesn’t debut above my risk tolerance level). Given the underwriters and the scope of the company, this one either is a Stealth setup, in which case I watch for an entry opportunity, or it’s not, and can’t be touched until it bottoms out for either a short-term reversal or LPX play.
The company states several potential near-term catalysts in their Prospectus, including approvals for their ViraxClear Covid-19 test in Q2 2022, and commencement of sales of their ViraxCare AI-powered Sanitizing Bot in Q3 2022.
The potential for them to trigger runs on such a low float with ‘fluffy’ news is highly likely, so if this one consolidates down in the $1 bin, it’s a prime target for an LPX play.”

So most of that still holds true, but I do wonder how badly Boustead can afford to mess up another IPO, and with just 1.35M shares and direct ties to Asia, it seems like this one could still sneak in as a Stealth Setup. I’ve put in for a minimal allocation request on WeBull, and will watch the pre-debut indication for clues as to what this might actually do on the debut: when everyone else is sleeping on a play, that’s when we could get the best opportunities to get in before the rip. Just be careful, because the prevailing sentiment is decisively not positive on this one.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+23% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Profits:
-500% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Margin:
-7% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Financial Summery: The financials are dated, and don’t really represent the path forward for this company, so I don’t think they play a major factor in assessing the setup for this stock. It’s not a company to invest in – this is a day trade at best.

Link to the F-1:
https://sec.report/Document/0001213900-22-035012/
Note from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Bousted Securities

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST JCSE GSUN

Trading Strategy:
This should be a Stealth setup – priced at $5, debuts anywhere from $10 to $25 or more. I’ll be adhering to my risk limits on the debut, and will draw a line somewhere in the $15-20 range depending on the volume lined up to trade on the opening print. Any higher than that, and I don’t see enough upside potential vs downside risk. I’d be pretty surprised to see a debut premium is below $6, and will watch for a dip-reversal if that happens, but seeing how little upside was offered by Boustead’s ASNS and HTCR IPO debuts, it may be better to lay off and wait for a drop down to the $1 bin and then accumulate in anticipation of an eventual rally.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High.

+++

bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – July 14, 2022 | 1.5M Units
Price Range:
$6.75
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a diagnostics company focusing on non-invasive diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer and other lung diseases. They are per-revenue, and their lead diagnostic test is slated for FDA submission in Q3 2022, and expected to take 2-3 years.

Considerations: BIAF has been rescheduled again and again since the first week of June, and I’d be surprised if they don’t pull it or push it back again. I don’t plan on playing it one way or the other – looking for the Stealth setup and this doesn’t look like it.

Here’s what I wrote before:
This one doesn’t have anything particularly enticing about it, the price point at $6.75 offers plenty of downside, as it likely comes down to the $2 zone as demand disappears once the IPO concludes; the Units mean there are warrants issued alongside the common shares in the offering and almost guarantees a debut below the IPO price; and the underwriter has not sponsored an IPO in the past 12 months. Ostensibly, short term catalysts tied to the company’s lead candidate seem to be relatively distant in the future. Having said that, when it’s ultra-low-float, and it appears bad on the surface, any kind of manipulation in the trading volume could produce volatility: as we saw with HSCS last week, the Day 2 runner can emerge at any moment: particularly when we least expect it, so I’ll at least be keeping watch on this one, albeit from the corner of my eye. In the near-short term, say 180 days, there are some potential catalysts as it aims to proceed with commercialization of its lead candidate “as an LDT under the CLIA program administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services”… so with a microscopic float, any positive headline could trigger a run to the exercise of the warrants (see below in the S-1 notes).”

Growth Numbers: none: it’s pre-revenue

Baseline Financials:
with no revenue, they’re all negative.

Notes from the S-1:
14 of our current stockholders have indicated an interest in purchasing Units in this Offering and we currently anticipate they may purchase approximately 6.2% of the Units in this Offering not assuming the exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
Actually, this is kind of rare, and since they already control 46% of the voting power of the common stock, the float is likely to be restrained.
Having completed the CLIA analytical validation, Precision Pathology is offering the CyPath® Lung test for sale with a controlled rollout beginning in Texas, which we anticipate will require six months, before expanding throughout the Southwest region of the U.S. through the first half of 2023. After establishing CyPath® Lung in the Southwest market, the laboratory will expand sales in 2023 to additional states with plans to market the test nationwide.
This aligns very nicely with a 180-day LPX, and warrant EP of 120% of the IPO price, ($8.10 based on the IPO price of $6.75). Keep that in mind if you want to pick this up on any pullbacks prior to LPX.

Underwriters:
WallachBeth Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float Biotech (aka “Biotech Bust”)

Recent Similar IPOs: HSCS (and not TNON… at least I can’t expect it to do what TNON did, which turned out to be akin to a Stealth IPO setup and was priced substantially higher that this one.

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be watching this one with no intention of playing it unless:
A) we see a significantly low volume on the opening print with a significant debut premium.
or
B) it tanks as hard as HSCS on Day 1 and falls throughout the day with no real reversal. So basically, it would have to fall below $2.00 into the close of the market, and then I’d take a flier on a possible Day 2 rally.

A better play would be to avoid the IPO altogether and set a reminder on your calendar for the 90 day and 180 LPX moves: consider building a position into these dates and hold for a spike on some form of contrived PR.


Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Treasure Global (TGL) – July 14, 2022 | 3M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00 – $6.00
Offering Size:
$12M
Shares Outstanding:
16.42M

Industry: Financial Discounts App

Overview:
This company has developed an app that is primarily used in Malaysia for offering rebates and affiliate payments for online-to-offline transactions.

Considerations: This one has me a little bit suspicious that there’s some potential for a Stealth-like movement, though it’s an S-1 filing and EF Hutton has not brought us a definitive winner wince the HOUR debut at the beginning of the year. However, it does have ties to Asia, the growth numbers, at least on paper, are absurdly positive (even if not all that meaningful). I’m willing to take a shot on this one for a minimal allocation request on WeBull and am testing out my trading desk with EF Hutton for a slightly larger allocation (supposedly there have been some inquiries by institutional investors into this deal: so if there were to be a substantial anchor investor in the deal, shares could get tied up rather quickly).

Growth Numbers:
– Registered User Gowth: +164% for 9 mos ending 3/31/2022
– Revenue Growth: +15,000% for 9 mos ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profit: +14,000% for 9 mos ending March 31, 2022

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
– The fact that this one is an S-1 at all, rather than an F-1, gives me pause as to whether this ends up being a Stealth IPO setup. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t run on low volume and a large anchor investor tying up the float.
Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Not really sure how to classify this one – definitely low float with Stealth potential

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR

Trading Strategy:
I kind of think this one might move like HOUR, though the float is substantially larger: I don’t expect a substantial debut premium like we see in most Stealth Setups – what I’m looking for is a slight debut premium, say $0.50 – $1.00 and a run that gradually materializes throughout the day. Possibly a dip-to-rip setup, so to the extent that I plan to play this one, I will be watching the debut and entering any new positions in small doses to ladder in, with the expectation that this reverses once the low float kicks in. If it debuts below the IPO price, I’ll simply bag-hold my allocation and wait for LPX to offload if we don’t get a Day 2 run.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Wearable Devices (WLDS) – July 15, 2022 | 3.6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.20 – $7.20
Offering Size:
$0M
Shares Outstanding:
14.84M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This Israeli-based company makes a wrist-worn (bracelet) that senses nerve and muscle movements (“Surface Nerve Conductance”) in the wrist to determine finger actions to deliver an electronics control system with potential metaverse/virtual reality applications, as well as remote industry, robotics, smart home, and sports analytics applications. It’s also available for the iWatch, so it’s does have integrations with devices that are already well positioned in the marketplace.

Considerations: Rescheduled a few times going back to March 2022, this one is trying to get to the public markets to fund development of it’s Apple iWatch wristband.
Here’s what I wrote back in June”

This actually sounds pretty frickin’ cool, but while gimmick along may have worked in the low-float IPOs of 2020 and 2021, this company seemingly just missed the ‘metaverse-hype’ craze that sent RBLX up to $140+ and MMTR as high as $37 in late November 2021 (they currently trade at $26.87 and $4.12 respectively). As far as strong IPO debuts driven purely on the trend and story behind the premise of the company, we haven’t really seen one deliver upside gains off the debut since LITM gave us an opening run from an open at $11.50 to a high at $18.40 on the premise of being a lithium miner (it now trades at $3.24).
While this company does deliver impressive growth numbers in terms of %, the real numbers themselves are rather small ($107k revenue in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021), and as futuristic as their technology sounds, I’m not sure the market is going to get overly excited about grabbing a piece of this company right out of the gate.
Bear in mind that recent high-tech IPOs out of Israel have not performed particularly well either: with MTEK and to a lesser-degree: SVRE each providing ample opportunity to lose money off their debuts.”

I’m not sure if I just really want an IPO to run purely on low-float and cool story, but I just don’t sense any real buzz around this one yet, and until we have an IPO that gets some coverage in other mainstream media and generates some meaningful social buzz, I can’t justify trying to play a debut trade on this one. If we do get some hype around this one before Friday’s launch, and there’s a decent buy-side imbalance in the pre-debut imbalance, I could be convinced to give this one a shot as a debut trade. Otherwise, I look forward to picking this one up going into the 90-day LPX and being in position to capitalize on their announcements related to development progress on their iWatch enabled product.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+214% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+233% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
93% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the F-1:
– A significant amount of the funding from the IPO will go directly towards manufacturing and marketing their “Madura Band” for the Apple watch. Which is pretty encouraging IF this product catches on, but not really a factor that can be assumed as fact at the time of their IPO.
This also reminds me that we’re in the midst of a serious supply-chain crisis, and the likelihood of production delays seems almost certain.


Underwriters:
Aegis Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK SVRE

Trading Strategy:
I don’t see this one doing particularly well off the debut: we just haven’t seen anything run off the opening print on story alone, and the float isn’t that microscopic in comparison to the sub-2M float debuts we’ve had recently. It’s been on-and-off-again for a few weeks now, and is still available for pre-order on WeBull, so I’ll be leaning towards the sidelines on this one, but admittedly could be swayed into taking a play on this one if I sense some hype along with a buy-side imbalance and modest debut premium going into the opening print.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – July 15, 2022 | 1.7M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.92M

Industry: Websites

Overview:
This company acquires and manages cash flow positive websites in several industry verticals with 38 websites in their portfolio. They claim to generate over 4M monthly visits across their network, and from a list of case studies published on their website covering companies they decided NOT to buy-out, it seems they find target companies on website flipping platforms, and are considering some companies with less than $100k in annual revenue. The offering is for ‘units’ that consist of one share of common stock and two warrants.

Considerations: Rescheduled again and again – my guess for this week is, “again.”
Here’s what I wrote before:

First off… two warrants?! Few IPOs have done well off the debut with just one warrant, let alone two warrants, and these are both redeemable at the IPO price, so there’s little chance that this runs much higher than the IPO price before warrant holders start dumping their shares. The company itself is not exciting: basically a bunch of relatively small websites that, individually, would be nowhere near IPO consideration, yet packaged together, somehow justify publicly listing this company on the NASDAQ.
The IPO should basically allow them to go buy even more websites to add to their stable of web properties, though they claim to not have any specific targets in mind. They also haven’t really demonstrated much skill in improving the performance of the websites they’ve purchased, as their growth numbers and baseline financials appear to be universally headed in the wrong direction.
I almost wonder why they’re even doing an IPO.”

There’s just nothing I like about this one, so if I’m wrong, ok, doubt it will affect my trading strategy going forward one way or another. If I had to pick one stock that would again delay their listing this week, this would be my top pick, followed by BIAF.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-25% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
-44% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
42% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – getting worse
– Net Income:
negative – getting worse
– Operating Profit:
negative – getting worse

Notes from the S-1:
– “As of the date of this prospectus, we cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the net proceeds to be received upon the completion of this offering.”
So basically, you just want some money from investors for the hell of it, and don’t really have any specific plans on what you’re going to do with it, right?
Onfolio: Yeah, that’s about it. but in the meantime,
”Pending the use of the net proceeds of this offering, we intend to invest the net proceeds in short-term investment-grade, interest-bearing securities.
I hope it’s not going into one of those BitCoin services that pays interest on your holdings.


Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR (sorta, but not expecting this kind of run) CISO (but like, not really – just another company that acquired a bunch of other smaller companies, except at least CISO was in a hot sector in cybersecurity).

Trading Strategy:
With 2 warrants involved, an EP at 100% of the IPO price, and being offered on WeBull, I don’t see how this offers even the hope of any upside.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low, but maybe some of the websites they own have limited brand recognition.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

AMTD Digital (HKD) – July 15, 2022 | 16M Shares
Price Range:
$6.80 – $8.20
Offering Size:
$120M
Shares Outstanding:
185M

Industry: Digital Banking

Overview:
Digital bank in Hong Kond

Considerations: This one has also been perpetually rescheduled since June… June 2021 that is, making it the most prolific repeat offender on this list of habitually rescheduled IPOs. Perhaps due to ongoing concerns related to Chinese financial regulations, especially in terms of US listed IPOs, this one was forced to wait for conditions to normalize before going public. Interestingly, the parent company of this subsidiary, is also the parent company of the underwriter for Nano Labs (AMTD Global Markets)… so while they are not permitted to underwrite their own IPO, they should have some insights as to how they should handle their debut launch so as to avoid an embarrassing IPO. Back in June 2021, this was available for allocation request on WeBull – this time around they are not offering retail traders any shares, and with less than 10% of the total shares outstanding being offered in the IPO, as a mainstream IPO, this one is relatively ‘low float’.

Financials”:
– Revenue Growth:
+17% for fiscal year ending April 2021
– Net Profit: +65% for 10 months ending 2/28/2022

Notes from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Maxim Group and Livermore Holdings Ltd

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: None come to mind. Chinese but not Stealth.

Trading Strategy:
Hard to call it this far out, I’ll send out a mid-week update if I hear anything encouraging. Certainly interesting, and may come down to a game-time decision for me: buy-side imbalance with low volume could be a positive setup indication. There was a time when all Chinese IPOs ran off the debut, even the non-low floaters, so if they end up taking this live, I suspect they may be confident of delivering a winning performer.

Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
by Aly Angel:
https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides!
https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Most IPOs are subject to 90 and/or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX dates July 11th to 15th

Genius Group Limited (GNS)
Type:
IPO
IPO Date:
12-Apr-22
IPO Price: $6.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 90-day
Exercise Price: $7.50 ref 424B4 12-Apr-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This was a stealth IPO and had a recent walk and drop. At this time, this is a general rule LPX date, meaning it is on watch, but def using stops and if it does not move w/ in a few weeks, would not want to hold the capital. Would look to load closer to the 180-day time frame
I would like to see this knife/ die before the 180-day, as most of these types of plays do.

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Sharps Technology (STSS)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
14-Apr-22
IPO Price: $4.25
LPX Date: 13-Jul-22
LPX Period: 90-day
Exercise Price: $7.50 ref 424B4 15-Apr-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This was a day 2 pop play (which is not an active play w/ the IPO debuts right now). The OA timeframe did have volume and the chart is currently on a reversal. This is a general 90-day rule play and same as GNS, not a hold through the next LPX timeframe.
This is on a reversal currently, meaning also a channel play even w/ out the LPX potential.

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Hillstream BioPharma Inc. (HILS)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
12-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 180-day
Exercise Price: $5.00 ref 424B4 13-Jan-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This is trading in the lower channel, just above the All Time Lows, and on a reversal. We have had multi-day runners lately, meaning when this runs, there are potentially several opportunities to play. As always, stop-losses should be moved up and do not chase into volume.

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Yoshitsu Co. (TKLF)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
18-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 180-day
Exercise Price: $4.80 ref 424B4 11-Jan-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
Another stealth IPO that ran volume during the OA period. Currently trading at lows. This would be a channel add for the LPX play, respecting risk as this is at the higher side of the vol profile channel.

Short Watchlist:
Keeping several IPOs, past the 90 or 180-day LPX dates, on watch.
Will usually have 6 -8 weeks past and 4 weeks in the future on watch/ positions.
ALWAYS respect your risk and only get in on the lower side of the channels for longer term holds. And only playing tickers that have an EP. No EP, does not deserve our attention.

No longer watching tickers w a secondary offering. They are not in play right now, so not wasting energy on them until the play is back and it will be. Everything goes in cycles.

Link to access my public spreadsheet, for a list of IPO and Uplist LPX info, & YouTube ticker previews https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning

“The best way to not break something is to understand how it really works.”

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link

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WeBull Allocation Requests – July 8, 2022

IPO Allocation Requests on WeBull as of July 8, 2022

July 8, 2022

Hi Premium Members – this newsletter is more of a test for me to check some of the configuration settings for the Premium Content settings on the website, and to briefly introduce the new platform to those of you who have signed up for Premium Membership.

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 4 – July 8, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 4 – July 8, 2022

July 4th, 2022

Last week brought us more rescheduled IPOs, with one mainstream debut that was punished for forcing itself onto the market with clearly unwelcoming conditions (and a thumbs down from Cramer on top of that). There may be some credibility to the theory that investors were simply not interested in trading anything going into a 3 day weekend, but that doesn’t hide the fact that IPOs have been facing challenges in filling their order books, while those that have followed through with their launch onto the public markets have generally been dropping out of the opening gate (save for those with the “Stealth IPO” setup).

Meanwhile, Lockup Expiration (LPX) plays have been delivering sizeable win opportunities, with NRSN being the latest recent IPO to follow through on the anticipated move – we called this one out in the May 31, 2022 newsletter as it approached the 180 LPX mark on June 7, 2022. Last week it spiked from the $1.70 level on June 24, 2022 to a high of $4.47 by June 30, 2022 with further upside potentially in-store, as it strives to reach the Exercise Price (EP) target at $6.00.

The plays I’ll be looking for in the upcoming slate of low-float IPOs are as follows:

1) Stealth IPOs brought to us by the usual suspects of underwriters and F-1 filings that indicate a possible connection to China.

2) Hard drops on low floats that trail off into the close for a possible near-term spike on Day 2 or 3, as well as other recent debuts that failed and have yet to produce any kind of meaningful spike (close eye on ASNS… yes, I already have a position on this one that’s currently in the green).

3) All LPX setups are on close watch for early morning PR drops: these tend to run harder and longer than similar headlines for more established companies.

—> Aly Angel has been nailing these LPX plays in recent IPOW newsletters, and she is THE expert on this setup. She’s offering a killer discount on her trading guides this week, so check out the LPX section below the IPO reviews for details.

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REMINDER: To receive the full version of this newsletter, please subscribe to the IPO Warriors Premium Membership before July 17, 2022. Spaces are limited to 300 members and significant lifetime discounts are provided for the first 100 monthly and 100 annual subscribers.
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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Nano Labs (NA) – July 6, 2022 | 3.5M Shares

  • Virax Biolabs Group (VRAX) – July 7, 2022 | 1.35M Shares

  • Wearable Devices (WLDS) – July 8, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Onfolio (ONFO) – July 8, 2022 | 1.7M Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

Nano Labs (NA) – July 6, 2022 | 3.5M Shares
Price Range:
$9.50 – $11.50
Offering Size:
$46.3M
Shares Outstanding:
55.4M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This chip designer specializes in producing ASIC chips for high memory intensive applications such as crypto mining and gaming, specifically citing ‘metaverse’ utilization.

Considerations: Had this company gone public as late as November 2021, the buzzwords associated with anything ‘crypto’ and ‘metaverse’, not to mention ‘microchips’, would have been enough to send it on a multi-day run off whatever debut it came to market with. But things have changed dramatically since then, with cryptos in full hibernation and everything ‘meta’ down significantly since the company formerly known as Facebook put fantasies straight out of Ready Player One into the spotlight. But that doesn’t mean this one should be ignored – the fact that it’s a Chinese company with a low float could be the sign of a stealth setup, although the lead underwriter has not proven that it can reliably deliver the kind of upside squeeze that we typically look for in Stealth setups (LIZI, EBON, MF, KUKE, OG) with secondary underwriters involved that are sort of hit-and-miss. Pricing the IPO up around the $10 mark also leaves quite a bit of room for it to fall off the debut, though given how many Stealth IPOs price at $4-5 only to debut at $15-25 or more, perhaps this could help prevent IPO allocation recipients from dumping prematurely.
This one is interesting enough to watch the debut indication and make a game-time decision from there as to whether I trade this off the debut once we see the volume and pre-debut indication price for the opening print. I will likely get some further insights into the availability of IPO shares prior to the debut, and will share that with Premium Members if before the launch if I can dig up some further information.

It’s also worth noting that this company reduced the size of it’s IPO from a target of $50M in June 2022 to the current size target of $37M – either they couldn’t fill the book at $50M and it’s not a Stealth play, or they decided they could run their shenanigans more easily with 3.5M shares instead of 5M shares.
BUT, it’s also worth noting that each ADS represented in the IPO represent two class A ordinary shares. So in effect, their F-1 is representing 7M shares at a price of $4.75 – $6.25.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if some trading platforms have trouble with the ticker symbol being “NA” and simply list the stock as ‘Not Available’ (I’m looking squarely at YOU, WeBull).

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+1,958%% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-600% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
-10% for 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
negative – expanding
– Operating Profit:
negative – exanding

Financial Summery: The financials are both dated, and as a Chinese manufacturer, subject to fairly large anomalies concurrent with COVID lockdowns, which continue to impact China’s manufacturing sector. This company has also indicated that the majority of sales to date have come from domestic markets, and that they intend to use the proceeds of this IPO to subsidies international expansion into the US market.
Still, these financials are pretty wild: with positive cash flow and quadruple revenue gains offset by negative gross profits and negative net income.

Link to the F-1: https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-22-185115/
Note from the F-1:
“We are offering 3,500,000 ADSs representing 7,000,000 Class A ordinary shares to be sold in this offering. Each ADS represents two Class A ordinary shares.”
So basically, the float will be 7M shares and the cost basis for IPO allocations will be $4.75 to $6.25 depending on where they end up pricing the IPO.

Underwriters:
AMTD Global Markets, Maxim Group LLC, and Tiger Brokers

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MF EBON KUKE OG

Trading Strategy:
On the surface, we have to assume this has Stealth potential, and is therefore poised to get pumped at some point. What makes this one tricky is the way they have structured the ADS as a ‘two-for-one’ deal, as this effectively doubles the float while maintaining a limited number of shareholders. One might expect the debut price to be half of the IPO price, but if this ends up being a Stealth setup, even a debut of double the IPO price would not be abnormal.
I may just stay away from this one on the debut, or keep my exposure limited with a small play if anything. I’d much rather see this one drop down around the $2 mark over the following weeks with no significant upside move so I can take a position with limited downside for an eventual squeeze in an LPX setup.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 7, 2022 | 1.35M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00
Offering Size:
$6M
Shares Outstanding:
11.4M

Industry: Diagnostics

Overview:
This company is primarily involved in the sales and distribution of diagnostic test kits and PPE devices with operations in the UK, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Considerations: Another company that would have been a lock to blow up off their debut had they IPO’d at the height of the pandemic – but with an ultra-low float and an underwriter that pretty much wrote the book on Stealth IPOs but has struggled to deliver a substantial runner over the past couple of months, it seems this one could be poised to offer an ideal setup for a series of halts to the upside (provided that it doesn’t debut above my risk tolerance level). Given the underwriters and the scope of the company, this one either is a Stealth setup, in which case I watch for an entry opportunity, or it’s not, and can’t be touched until it bottoms out for either a short-term reversal or LPX play.
The company states several potential near-term catalysts in their Prospectus, including approvals for their ViraxClear Covid-19 test in Q2 2022, and commencement of sales of their ViraxCare AI-powered Sanitizing Bot in Q3 2022.
The potential for them to trigger runs on such a low float with ‘fluffy’ news is highly likely, so if this one consolidates down in the $1 bin, it’s a prime target for an LPX play.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+23% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Profits:
-500% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Margin:
-7% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Financial Summery: The financials are dated, and don’t really represent the path forward for this company, so I don’t think they play a major factor in assessing the setup for this stock. It’s not a company to invest in – this is a day trade at best.

Link to the F-1:
https://sec.report/Document/0001213900-22-035012/
Note from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Bousted Securities

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST JCSE GSUN

Trading Strategy:
This should be a Stealth setup – priced at $5, debuts anywhere from $10 to $25 or more. I’ll be adhereing to my risk limits on the debut, and will draw a line somewhere in the $15-20 range depending on the volume lined up to trade on the opening print. Any higher than that, and I don’t see enough upside potential vs downside risk. I’d be pretty surprised to see a debut premium is below $6, and will watch for a dip-reversal if that happens, but seeing how little upside was offered by Boustead’s ASNS and HTCR IPO debuts, it may be better to lay off and wait for a drop down to the $1 bin and then accumulate in anticipation of an eventual rally.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High.

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Ok, so the next two IPOs on the calendar for this week are habitually rescheduled offerings that are now in their 3rd delay. Neither is particularly interesting in my opinion, so I’m just re-pasting what I wrote last week. If anything, they become less likely to generate substantial market interest out the gate the more often they get moved back, unless something materially changes in their offering (and if it does, and I hear about it, I’ll send out an update to Premium Members).

Wearable Devices (WLDS) – June 23, 2022 | 3.6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.20 – $7.20
Offering Size:
$0M
Shares Outstanding:
14.84M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This Israeli-based company makes a wrist-worn (bracelet) that senses nerve and muscle movements (“Surface Nerve Conductance”) in the wrist to determine finger actions to deliver an electronics control system with potential metaverse/virtual reality applications, as well as remote industry, robotics, smart home, and sports analytics applications. It’s also available for the iWatch, so it’s does have integrations with devices that are already well positioned in the marketplace.

Considerations: This actually sounds pretty frickin’ cool, but while gimmick along may have worked in the low-float IPOs of 2020 and 2021, this company seemingly just missed the ‘metaverse-hype’ craze that sent RBLX up to $140+ and MMTR as high as $37 in late November 2021 (they currently trade at $26.87 and $4.12 respectively). As far as strong IPO debuts driven purely on the trend and story behind the premise of the company, we haven’t really seen one deliver upside gains off the debut since LITM gave us an opening run from an open at $11.50 to a high at $18.40 on the premise of being a lithium miner (it now trades at $3.24).
While this company does deliver impressive growth numbers in terms of %, the real numbers themselves are rather small ($107k revenue in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021), and as futuristic as their technology sounds, I’m not sure the market is going to get overly excited about grabbing a piece of this company right out of the gate.
Bear in mind that recent high-tech IPOs out of Israel have not performed particularly well either: with MTEK and to a lesser-degree: SVRE each providing ample opportunity to lose money off their debuts.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+214% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+233% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
93% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the F-1:
– A significant amount of the funding from the IPO will go directly towards manufacturing and marketing their “Madura Band” for the Apple watch. Which is pretty encouraging IF this product catches on, but not really a factor that can be assumed as fact at the time of their IPO.
This also reminds me that we’re in the midst of a serious supply-chain crisis, and the likelihood of production delays seems almost certain.


Underwriters:
Aegis Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK SVRE

Trading Strategy:
I don’t see this one doing particularly well off the debut: we just haven’t seen anything run off the opening print on story alone, and the float isn’t that microscopic in comparison to the sub-2M float debuts we’ve had recently. It’s been on-and-off-again for a few weeks now, and is still available for pre-order on WeBull, so this is one I’ll watch from the sidelines for now.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – June 23, 2022 | 1.7M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.92M

Industry: Websites

Overview:
This company acquires and manages cash flow positive websites in several industry verticals with 38 websites in their portfolio. They claim to generate over 4M monthly visits across their network, and from a list of case studies published on their website covering companies they decided NOT to buy-out, it seems they find target companies on website flipping platforms, and are considering some companies with less than $100k in annual revenue. The offering is for ‘units’ that consist of one share of common stock and two warrants.

Considerations: First off… two warrants?! Few IPOs have done well off the debut with just one warrant, let alone two warrants, and these are both redeemable at the IPO price, so there’s little chance that this runs much higher than the IPO price before warrant holders start dumping their shares. The company itself is not exciting: basically a bunch of relatively small websites that, individually, would be nowhere near IPO consideration, yet packaged together, somehow justify publicly listing this company on the NASDAQ.
The IPO should basically allow them to go buy even more websites to add to their stable of web properties, though they claim to not have any specific targets in mind. They also haven’t really demonstrated much skill in improving the performance of the websites they’ve purchased, as their growth numbers and baseline financials appear to be universally headed in the wrong direction.
I almost wonder why they’re even doing an IPO.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-25% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
-44% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
42% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – getting worse
– Net Income:
negative – getting worse
– Operating Profit:
negative – getting worse

Notes from the S-1:
– “As of the date of this prospectus, we cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the net proceeds to be received upon the completion of this offering.”
So basically, you just want some money from investors for the hell of it, and don’t really have any specific plans on what you’re going to do with it, right?
Onfolio: Yeah, that’s about it. but in the meantime,
”Pending the use of the net proceeds of this offering, we intend to invest the net proceeds in short-term investment-grade, interest-bearing securities.
I hope it’s not going into one of those BitCoin services that pays interest on your holdings.


Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR (sorta, but not expecting this kind of run)

Trading Strategy:
With 2 warrants involved, an EP at 100% of the IPO price, and being offered on WeBull, I don’t see how this offers even the hope of any upside.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low, but maybe some of the websites they own have limited brand recognition.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
by Aly Angel:
https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides!
https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Most IPOs are subject to a 180 day lockup period before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX dates July 4th, 2022 to July 8th, 2022

Still in the Grinched X-Mas and bloody January time frame.
No 90-day LPX for this week


Moving iMage Technologies, Inc. (MITQ)
Type:
IPO
IPO Date:
08-Jul-21
IPO Price: $3.00
LPX Date: 08-Jul-22
LPX Period: 1 year
Exercise Price: $1.875 & $3.00
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This LPX is for directors and officers. This is a Boustead play and was a Stealth IPO when it debuted.
Looking Ahead:
This has not been over the EP at other LPX dates, but the Eps are low, so the play moving forward would be the usually consolidated reversal for entry and def draw your channel lines based on at least the last 6 months.
– Reference 424B4 Filed 08-Jul-21 & 10Q filed 16-May-22

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Hour Loop (HOUR)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
07-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 06-Jul-22
LPX Period: 6-month
Exercise Price: $5.00 dir & ofc, uw, 5%+ holders
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This was a stealth IPO and had a 60-day LPX per the 434B4 filed 07-Jan-22 (page 81) “exercise of outstanding options and other derivative securities owned by that person which are exercisable within 60 days of January 3, 2022”.
Based on the price and vol, these shares were exercised, the only remaining is the directors/ officers, underwriter and certain 5%+ holders.
Looking Ahead:
This is trading close to lows and in a channel. I would be cautious that it may drop through to the lower level in the 6-mo vol profile before reversing. If you’re building a position, stop losses are essential when these are not trading at alt’s prior to an LPX date.

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Short Watchlist:
Keeping several IPOs, past the 90 or 180-day LPX dates, on watch.
Will usually have 6 -8 weeks past and 4 weeks in the future on watch/ positions.
ALWAYS respect your risk and only get in on the lower side of the channels for longer term holds. And only playing tickers that have an EP. No EP, does not deserve our attention.

No longer watching tickers w a secondary offering. They are not in play right now, so not wasting energy on them until the play is back and it will be. Everything goes in cycles.

BEAT – EP $6 – IPO
BJDX – EP $7 – IPO
BLBX – EP $6.25 – Uplist
CING – EP $7.50
HTCR – EP $6.25 – IPO
TIVC – EP $6.25 – IPO

Bonus Info:
Watching recent IPO debuts for the o/a pop. This is for IPOs that failed out the gate and have a reversal close to the list price in the 30- or 45-day over-allotment period.
ASNS – list price $4.00
EDBL – list price $4.00

Last 3 to look at for examples:
PEV list price $7.50, hit $8.50 on day on day 15 after a low of $2.90
RVSN list price $4.13 per unit, hit $2.55 on day 34 after a low of $1.11
LCFY list price $4.125 per unit, hit $2.08 on day 33 after a low of $1.00

The play is to wait for the consolidated low and reversal w/ in the o/a period. These do not typically get back to EP’s or list price, so this is a technical, not fundamental, play.

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I am doing a promo on the Trading Guides for the 4th.

40% off through midnight PST July 5th.
Info can be found at
https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Link to access my public spreadsheet, for a list of IPO and Uplist LPX info, & YouTube ticker previews https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning

“The best way to not break something is to understand how it really works.”

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IPO Warriors IPO Preview for June 27 – July 1, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO Preview for June 27 – July 1, 2022

June 27, 2022

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Despite what appeared to be warmer conditions in the market last week, all but one IPO was either pulled or rescheduled, including the one mainstream IPO that ventured to test the waters of what has been an ice cold environment for new public offerings. This indicates that despite a rally that saw many of last the last two years’ blockbuster IPOs back from all-time-lows, we may be in for more weakness on the short term horizon.

However, the one IPO that did come to the table (GSUN), provided a reminder that there are still plenty of upside opportunities to be found in IPO land that can be played with a high level of conviction for substantial profits within the first two days of trading (although there has been a recent trend where these plays have taken a week or longer to manifest profits… ahem, PEV). This week we’ll be revisiting last week’s rescheduled IPOs with an added degree of skepticism, along with a new addition to the lineup from the same underwriter that brought us last week’s winner: so there’s plenty of potential opportunity on the agenda for this week.

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Reminder: IPO Warriors is moving to a Paid Subscription model on July 17, 2022 in order to allow me to focus more time and energy into the research, information, analysis, and trading ideas surrounding upcoming and recent IPOs.

Membership will be limited to just 300 subscribers, and significant discounts are available to those who sign up BEFORE July 17, 2022.

Click Here for Details

+++

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 28, 2022 | 14.4M Shares

  • Warrantee (WRNT) – June 29, 2022 | 2.14M Shares

  • bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – July 1, 2022 | 1.5M Units

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 28, 2022 | 14.4M Shares
Price Range:
$11.75 – $12.50
Offering Size:
$175M
Shares Outstanding:
92.6M

Industry: Mining and Energy Storage

Overview:
This IPO was scheduled to debut last Friday, but appears to have had trouble filling their order book, with shares being offered for allocation request to WeBull traders: not really a great look for a company that was courting institutional investors for this mainstream IPO. Ivanhoe is a metal mining company operating in America and overseas, and sells related technologies to other miners.

Considerations:
Here’s what I wrote last week:
I almost hesitate to label this as a “mainstream IPO” given that the lead underwriter is BMO Capital – an outfit that hasn’t been the lead underwriter on any IPOs in the past 12 months, but with Jefferies and JP Morgan attached, along with the substantial size of the deal, it’s certainly not a shady second-tier offering.
With that in mind, I do tend to like mainstream IPOs that debut in a cold market, especially if they come out right when the market is entering a reversal off bottoms. When the market is red-hot, for example in the second half of 2020 and first half of 2021, virtually every IPO debuted trading on the public markets with an incredible premium to the IPO price. A prime example: SNOW opened trading at $245 after pricing the IPO at $120 (which was way above the initial projected range). It still gave us an opening run up to $320 before reversing, and provided substantial upside from there over the next couple months (before receding since then to hit prices below even the IPO price, along with the rest of growth stocks).
In contrast, weak markets are anemic for IPOs, which means that when a mainstream IPO comes along and is willing to brave the chill of frosty market conditions, we get more reasonable pricing relative to traditional valuation. The underwriters still need to deliver a modest upside to their institutional investor clients, so we tend to see pricing fall within or below range, and retail demand is typically subdued a bit, so we don’t get extreme debut premiums. Looking back at EE and PFHC, we saw both of them provide debut entries with little downside risk, and while EE didn’t really offer much upside profit either, it did give debut buyers plenty of outs in the first 3 days of trading, while PFHC offered a nice little run on Day 1.. and broke out for a more profitable rally over the weeks following the IPO.
Beyond the market conditions, this company is a mining company and in addition to gold and silver, they mine metals that are used in electric vehicles, and that’s something that’s heavily in the spotlight these days. The float is pretty small for a mainstream IPO as well, and their growth numbers are rather impressive.
JP Morgan also tends to leave at least a little bit of meat on the bone for retailers to pick at.”

Since then the company rescheduled to this week, got trolled on CNBC by Jim Cramer, and offered allocation requests to retail traders on WeBull. I can’t really read any of this as being particularly bullish. If allocation requests on WeBull were substantial, then Cramer was most likely correct in his forecast of the debut, but there may be opportunity to trade this one off a hard drop on the opening, especially if this one prices at the low end of the range. I also wonder if the underwriter simply wasn’t up to the task of nailing down an anchor investor to hold down this deal or why they otherwise struggled to fill the order book for this IPO, but if inexperience on behalf of the underwriter was any factor in delaying this IPO, perhaps we get a relatively ‘fair’ price on this stock once it starts trading.

Remember also that Mr. Cramer, as much as I respect the man, about the DIDI IPO, “I would try to get as many shares as you can.” Well, that was perhaps the worst mainstream IPO I’ve ever witnessed, and one of only two IPOs where Etrade allocated any shares to me (thankfully, it was only a small request to begin with).

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+333% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
+440% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
99% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
BMO Capital Markets, Jefferies, JP Morgan

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: EE PFHC

Trading Strategy:
Here’s what I wrote last week:
“If the market is strong this week, and there is a buy-side imbalance with not too heavy of a debut premium, I like this IPO for a $1-2 upside to the debut price, and possibly more. Similarly, if we see it price at the low end of range, and debut below that, I like the chances of a move back up to and beyond the IPO price (the underwriters are likely to protect the price anywhere below the IPO price).|”

Now that it’s been rescheduled, and Cramer has officially denounced it, on top of a potentially high allocation to retail traders, it doesn’t appear on the surface that this IPO is going to attract retail traders in the volume that results in significant upward price momentum. If I were to trade this in any capacity, I’d likely need to see it price below range, debut below IPO price, and downside movement from there on the debut. At that point we would expect the underwriter to be forced to protect the price from total collapse, and once panic sellers have evacuated their positions, we could see a bounce back to the IPO price by Day 2. Otherwise, I’m not too excited with this one.

Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate-High.

+++

Warrantee (WRNT) – June , 2022 | 2.14M Shares
Price Range:
$6.00 – $8.00
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.14M

Industry: Marketing

Overview:
This is a Japanese marketing /market research company that operates a business model whereby they facilitate free healthcare and product insurance (mostly on appliances) to individuals who then subsidize their benefits by authorizing the use of their data to the providers of those services. The website reads like a new-age utopian model of commerce, with opening lines such as, “In order to realize a “sustainable society,” we offer services that make it easy for people to pursue a comfortable lifestyle and maintain or recover their health.” .

Considerations: Were it not for the underwriter being Network 1 Financial, the same company that brought us GSUN last week, I’d simply chuckle at the suggestion that this company could raise enough buyer demand to go public on the NASDAQ under these market conditions. But when you bring in Network 1 Financial combined with an ultra-low float, and a company that’s based out of Asia, I have to take notice as a potential Stealth setup. Actually, their financials aren’t nearly as bad as some other recent low-float IPOs from lesser-known underwriters, but let’s not kid ourselves here: if you’re watching this one with the intention of taking a position on the opening print if we see a high debut premium, then you’re not really weighing traditional valuation metrics in your analysis of this company. It’s either going to have a tightly constrained volume that produces a substantial pop once shares start trading, or it’s going to be a bomb that drops in half or worse.
WRNT was available for allocation request on WeBull, and I put in a small order request to gauge whether retail traders would be given large portions of the float – how much of my request gets assigned will give me further insights as to whether it makes sense to add to my position on the debut or not.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+22% for 6 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+27% for 6 months ending September 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
99% for 6 months ending September 31, 2021
…I don’t recall ever seeing gross margin numbers that high before.

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negaive

Notes from the F-1:
– “
We have had only 11 customers and associated marketing campaigns to date”
Ok, so it’s a small company with not a lot of customers, noted.

– “The number of common shares to be outstanding immediately after this offering does not include: (a) up to 321,429 ADSs issuable upon the exercise in full by the underwriters of their option to purchase additional ADSs from us, and (b) up to an aggregate of 1,036,500 common shares issuable upon the exercise of stock options outstanding immediately after the completion of this offering, at a weighted-average exercise price of JPY110.37 per share.”
My math comes to roughly 1.36M additional shares that will be added to the float once the offering is completed… bringing the total float to nearly 3.5M shares.

Underwriters: Network 1 Financial

IPO Classification:
Potential Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: HTCR

Trading Strategy:
This one is a little tricky because it is missing one key ingredient for a traditional Stealth IPO – the obvious connection to China. As this is a NASDAQ listing, we should be able to see the debut premium at which this stock will begin trading on WeBull (mobile or desktop apps). If we see a debut premium in the $11-17 range, I feel fairly confident that we will see halts to the upside off the opening print. If it debuts essentially at or below the IPO price, then we’re likely to see retail traders panic sell it down further. At that point, I will look for an opportunity to take a position towards the end of the day should the stock fail to produce any kind of substantial rally, and be prepared to sell in the early pre-market on Day 2 if we get a spike.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Tempered enthusiasm.

+++

bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – July 1, 2022 | 1.5M Units
Price Range:
$6.75
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
Rescheduled from Jun 22, 2022. This is a diagnostics company focusing on non-invasive diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer and other lung diseases. They are per-revenue, and their lead diagnostic test is slated for FDA submission in Q3 2022, and expected to take 2-3 years.

Considerations: Here’s what I wrote last week:
”This one doesn’t have anything particularly enticing about it, the price point at $6.75 offers plenty of downside, as it likely comes down to the $2 zone as demand disappears once the IPO concludes; the Units mean there are warrants issued alongside the common shares in the offering and almost guarantees a debut below the IPO price; and the underwriter has not sponsored an IPO in the past 12 months. Ostensibly, short term catalysts tied to the company’s lead candidate seem to be relatively distant in the future. Having said that, when it’s ultra-low-float, and it appears bad on the surface, any kind of manipulation in the trading volume could produce volatility: as we saw with HSCS last week, the Day 2 runner can emerge at any moment: particularly when we least expect it, so I’ll at least be keeping watch on this one, albeit from the corner of my eye. In the near-short term, say 180 days, there are some potential catalysts as it aims to proceed with commercialization of its lead candidate “
as an LDT under the CLIA program administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services”… so with a microscopic float, any positive headline could trigger a run to the exercise of the warrants (see below in the S-1 notes).”
I don’t think anything has substantially changed here, except that it’s been moved to a Friday, which puts it in line to perform according to the typical “Biotech Bust” seem to gravitate towards the back end of the week.


Growth Numbers: none: it’s pre-revenue

Baseline Financials:
with no revenue, they’re all negative.

Notes from the S-1:
14 of our current stockholders have indicated an interest in purchasing Units in this Offering and we currently anticipate they may purchase approximately 6.2% of the Units in this Offering not assuming the exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
Actually, this is kind of rare, and since they already control 46% of the voting power of the common stock, the float is likely to be restrained.
Having completed the CLIA analytical validation, Precision Pathology is offering the CyPath® Lung test for sale with a controlled rollout beginning in Texas, which we anticipate will require six months, before expanding throughout the Southwest region of the U.S. through the first half of 2023. After establishing CyPath® Lung in the Southwest market, the laboratory will expand sales in 2023 to additional states with plans to market the test nationwide.
This aligns very nicely with a 180-day LPX, and warrant EP of 120% of the IPO price, ($8.10 based on the IPO price of $6.75). Keep that in mind if you want to pick this up on any pullbacks prior to LPX.

Underwriters:
WallachBeth Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float Biotech (aka “Biotech Bust”)

Recent Similar IPOs: HSCS (and not TNON… at least I can’t expect it to do what TNON did, which turned out to be akin to a Stealth IPO setup and was priced substantially higher that this one.

Trading Strategy:
Nothing’s really changed in my approach to this one, except that I may be even more hesitant to take any overnight position given that the Day 2 move with straddle a weekend.
I’ll be watching this one with no intention of playing it unless:
A) we see a significantly low volume on the opening print with a significant debut premium.
or
B) it tanks as hard as HSCS on Day 1 and falls throughout the day with no real reversal. So basically, it would have to fall below $2.00 into the close of the market, and then I’d take a flier on a possible Day 2 rally.


Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
by Aly Angel:
https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides!
https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Most IPOs are subject to a 180 day lockup period before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX dates June 27th to July 1st
Still in the Grinched X-Mas and bloody January time frame.


Expion360 Inc (XPON)
Type:
IPO
LPX Date:
30-Jun-22
LPX Period: 90-day under gen rule
IPO Date: 01-Apr-22
IPO Price: $7.00

Exercise Price: UW 130% list, equal to $9.10 (180-day)
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a

Notes: 90-day LPX is under gen rule only, has 180-day LPX
– Reference 424B4 Filed 04-Apr-22

+++

No 180-day LPX tickers.

Keeping an eye on several IPOs that are past the 180-day LPX dates.
Will usually have 6-8 weeks past and 4 weeks in the future on watch/ positions.
ALWAYS respect your risk and only get in on the lower side of the channels for longer term holds. And only playing tickers that have an EP (exercise price).
No EP = does not deserve our attention.

If there’s a secondary offering, these often take longer to run.

BEAT – EP $6 – IPO
BJDX – EP $7 – IPO
BLBX – EP $6.25 – Uplist
CING – EP $7.50
HTCR – EP $6.25 – IPO
STRN – EP $4.81 – $5.18 – IPO *has secondary
TIVC – EP $6.25 – IPO

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link and YouTube Videos.

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IPO WARRIORS IPO PREVIEW FOR JUNE 20 – JUNE 24, 2022 (FREE Version

IPO WARRIORS IPO PREVIEW FOR JUNE 20 – JUNE 24, 2022 (FREE Version)

June 21, 2022

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Golden Sun Education Group (GSUN) – June 22, 2022 | 4.4M Shares

  • bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – June 22, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Wearable Devices (WLDS) – June 23, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Mobilicom (MOB) – June 23, 2022 | 2.15M Shares

  • Onfolio (ONFO) – June 23, 2022 | 1.7M Shares

  • Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 24, 2022 | 14.4M Shares

+++

Ok, Let’s jump in:

Golden Sun Education Group (GSUN) – June , 2022 | 4.4M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00 – $5.00
Offering Size:
$20M
Shares Outstanding:
17.4M

Industry: Education

Overview:
This Chinese private education company operates a primary school and a secondary school in Wenzhou, China along with a handful of education centers and a logistics company catering to educational centers.

+++

bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – June 23, 2022 | 1.5M Units
Price Range:
$6.75
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a diagnostics company focusing on non-invasive diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer and other lung diseases. They are per-revenue, and their lead diagnostic test is slated for FDA submission in Q3 2022, and expected to take 2-3 years.

+++

Wearable Devices (WLDS) – June 23, 2022 | 3.6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.20 – $7.20
Offering Size:
$0M
Shares Outstanding:
14.84M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This Israeli-based company makes a wrist-worn (bracelet) that senses nerve and muscle movements (“Surface Nerve Conductance”) in the wrist to determine finger actions to deliver an electronics control system with potential metaverse/virtual reality applications, as well as remote industry, robotics, smart home, and sports analytics applications. It’s also available for the iWatch, so it’s does have integrations with devices that are already well positioned in the marketplace.


+++

Mobilicom (MOB) – June 23, 2022 | 2.15M Shares
Price Range:
$3.80 – $4.75
Offering Size:
$17M
Shares Outstanding:
4.3M

Industry: Drone cybersecurity

Overview:
Here we have another Israeli tech company, this one is an uplisting from the Australian stock exchange – the company itself develops combination hardware/software cybersecurity products for drones and UAVS with both commercial and military applications.

+++

Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – June 23, 2022 | 1.7M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.92M

Industry: Websites

Overview:
This company acquires and manages cash flow positive websites in several industry verticals with 38 websites in their portfolio. They claim to generate over 4M monthly visits across their network, and from a list of case studies published on their website covering companies they decided NOT to buy-out, it seems they find target companies on website flipping platforms, and are considering some companies with less than $100k in annual revenue. The offering is for ‘units’ that consist of one share of common stock and two warrants.

+++

Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 4, 2022 | 14.4M Shares
Price Range:
$11.00 – $12.50
Offering Size:
$175M
Shares Outstanding:
0M

Industry: Mining and Energy Storage

Overview:
This is the first mainstream IPO we’ve seen since May with PFHC and EE in April before that. Ivanhoe is a metal mining company operating in America and overseas, and sells related technologies to other miners.

+++

… and keep an eye out for another possible Stealth IPO this week. If I spot it, I’ll send out an update newsletter mid-week, so keep an eye on your inbox.

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
Content provided by Aly Angel: Follow on Twitter at https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl

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IPO Warriors IPO Preview for June 20 – June 24, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO Preview for June 20 – June 24, 2022

June 21, 2022

The ongoing market decline that has persisted since the beginning of the year, spurred by inflation which has negatively impacted the market’s appetite for growth stocks, has resulted in a drought of mainstream IPOs, though we’ve had plenty of action in the form of low-float IPOs from questionable companies brought to us by second-tier underwriters. After last week’s Fed action to implement a historically colossal .75% rate hike on Wednesday, the market initially responded with a remarkably positive bounce, which appeared to dissipate on Thursday, but regained momentum going into the long weekend. Some experts forecast further attrition, but it seems we’re starting to hear the first murmurings of having reached a “bottom”. With a pent up supply of IPOs eagerly awaiting more favorable conditions into which they can make the step into the public markets, the sooner that financial environments for growth stocks rebounds, the more likely we’ll have mainstream IPOs lining up to debut their public offerings.

As we’ve seen in the past, mainstream underwriters seem to have a pretty good read on market conditions. When we see mainstream IPOs begin to peak their heads out into the domain of the public markets, we may interpret this as a signal that the market is showing signs of relative strength. We also see that even low-float IPOs tend to be scarce in the worst of times, and the last few weeks produced only a trickle of almost laughably bad companies that chose to debut despite frigid circumstances.

So this week, with no less than 6 IPOs on the calendar, including one mainstream IPO, and possible Stealth IPOs lurking in the shadows, it feels like we might be looking at a turnaround in the market, though how long it lasts is anyone’s guess. Some of the best plays to be looking at if the market shows signs of rebounding are recent IPOs that have been beaten down along with the rest of those labeled ‘growth’: tickers like U, S, SNOW, ABNB, DOCS, PATH, and ARRY have already bounced somewhat from last week’s bottoms, but could rally substantially from here if interest returns to growth at any pace.

But I’m not really trying to call bottoms or take long term positions in this market: I’m focused on trading IPOs this week: with potential Stealth IPO setups, and abundance of ultra-low-floaters, and a mainstream IPO that could provide a relatively fair entry for retail traders, along with a trend of recent low-float IPOs running hard as they hit their Lockup Expiration (LPX), there is plenty of action to be had in IPO land: that’s where my focus will be, and what I’ll be dissecting with the rest of this newsletter.

+++

This Week’s IPOs:

  • Golden Sun Education Group (GSUN) – June 22, 2022 | 4.4M Shares

  • bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – June 22, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Wearable Devices (WLDS) – June 23, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Mobilicom (MOB) – June 23, 2022 | 2.15M Shares

  • Onfolio (ONFO) – June 23, 2022 | 1.7M Shares

  • Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 24, 2022 | 14.4M Shares

+++

Ok, Let’s jump in:

Golden Sun Education Group (GSUN) – June , 2022 | 4.4M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00 – $5.00
Offering Size:
$20M
Shares Outstanding:
17.4M

Industry: Education

Overview:
This Chinese private education company operates a primary school and a secondary school in Wenzhou, China along with a handful of education centers and a logistics company catering to educational centers.

Considerations: I first picked up on GSUN back in May 2021 when it hit my scanners due to the underwriter and the almost flagrantly uninteresting nature of the company. China has been clamping down on private education, as it seeks to force financial parity on its massive population rife with the kind of financial disparity that keeps PNC party leaders up at night. Therefore, the likelihood of this company becoming a highly profitable enterprise worthy of any kind investment is ludicrous. The financials are bad, not to mention, way outdated (provided for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2020), and in case you haven’t heard, China is still enforcing massive lockdown restrictions as it continues to struggle with containing COVID. When I see an underwriter like Network 1 Financial bring a Chinese company public, I’m already sitting on the edge of my seat expecting a Stealth debut, and when the underlying company is this bad, I am simply waiting and hoping that the debut price isn’t out of range for a significant move to the upside: this is the company that brought us TIRX, CNEY, CPOP, AUVI, and way before that – the legendary scam IPO LFIN: perhaps the original Stealth IPO that ran from $6.65 to a high of $142 on Day 2.

Growth Numbers: (ok, gonna run through these as a matter of practice, but if you’re worried about the financial strength of this company in assessing whether to play the IPO debut, you’re significantly misunderstanding the premise of the Stealth IPO setup).
– Revenue Growth:
-14% for fiscal year ending September 30, 2020
– Net Income:
-98.4% for fiscal year ending September 30, 2020 (yeah, it went from $3.5M to $54k in one year).

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:
– Risks: “…it is uncertain whether we or our PRC subsidiaries will be required to obtain additional approvals, licenses, or permits in connection with our business operations pursuant to evolving PRC laws and regulations, and whether we would be able to obtain and renew such approvals on a timely basis or at all. Failing to do so could result in a material change in our operations, and the value of our Class A Ordinary Shares could depreciate significantly or become worthless.”
Essentially, unless China reverses their policy decisions regarding whether private education is allowed to make profits, this company is trash.

Underwriters:
Network 1 Financial

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST JCSE

Trading Strategy:
Like any Stealth IPO, I’m watching first for confirmation that it’s a Stealth setup: evident with a debut price significantly above the IPO price, and second, I’m watching for a playable entry point and lowish volume on the opening print. This can be tricky when allocation requests are available to retail traders on WeBull, as this one is (note: I have put in for a small allocation request: notes on this further down the page).
The specific setup I’m looking for in the pre-debut share balancing, is for volume around 100k shares or less for the opening trade, and a price target no higher than $17.00. As we saw with LYT last week, once we get up to $20 and above, there isn’t much room for an easy upside play off the debut. Since all these setups have historically run down to $2 and lower in the near-future, the downside risk once the share price tops $20 becomes increasingly potent. So for my risk tolerance, a debut price in the $10-$16 range is ideal, and I remind myself not to take such a large position that my buy order can be affecting the opening bid price (more than 1,000 shares and you can be asserting real gravity against your own position).

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High.
This is almost certainly a Stealth IPO setup: if it’s a fakeout, well, then good for them, they got us. More likely, the question is simply whether they give us retail traders a chance to buy in at a debut price that is not overly inflated to begin with. They let us get into CPOP at $12.26 before it rocked up to $34.87 on Day 1, then continued to peak at $78 on Day 2. JZXN, on the otherhand, debuted at $45 and crashed down as low as $17.06 on Day 1, reaching single digits on Day 2. Both trade under $1.50 today.

+++

bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – June 23, 2022 | 1.5M Units
Price Range:
$6.75
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a diagnostics company focusing on non-invasive diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer and other lung diseases. They are per-revenue, and their lead diagnostic test is slated for FDA submission in Q3 2022, and expected to take 2-3 years.

Considerations: This one doesn’t have anything particularly enticing about it, the price point at $6.75 offers plenty of downside, as it likely comes down to the $2 zone as demand disappears once the IPO concludes; the Units mean there are warrants issued alongside the common shares in the offering and almost guarantees a debut below the IPO price; and the underwriter has not sponsored an IPO in the past 12 months. Ostensibly, short term catalysts tied to the company’s lead candidate seem to be relatively distant in the future. Having said that, when it’s ultra-low-float, and it appears bad on the surface, any kind of manipulation in the trading volume could produce volatility: as we saw with HSCS last week, the Day 2 runner can emerge at any moment: particularly when we least expect it, so I’ll at least be keeping watch on this one, albeit from the corner of my eye. In the near-short term, say 180 days, there are some potential catalysts as it aims to proceed with commercialization of its lead candidate “as an LDT under the CLIA program administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services”… so with a microscopic float, any positive headline could trigger a run to the exercise of the warrants (see below in the S-1 notes).

Growth Numbers: none: it’s pre-revenue

Baseline Financials:
with no revenue, they’re all negative.

Notes from the S-1:
14 of our current stockholders have indicated an interest in purchasing Units in this Offering and we currently anticipate they may purchase approximately 6.2% of the Units in this Offering not assuming the exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
Actually, this is kind of rare, and since they already control 46% of the voting power of the common stock, the float is likely to be restrained.
Having completed the CLIA analytical validation, Precision Pathology is offering the CyPath® Lung test for sale with a controlled rollout beginning in Texas, which we anticipate will require six months, before expanding throughout the Southwest region of the U.S. through the first half of 2023. After establishing CyPath® Lung in the Southwest market, the laboratory will expand sales in 2023 to additional states with plans to market the test nationwide.
This aligns very nicely with a 180-day LPX, and warrant EP of 120% of the IPO price, ($8.10 based on the IPO price of $6.75). Keep that in mind if you want to pick this up on any pullbacks prior to LPX.

Underwriters:
WallachBeth Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float Biotech (aka “Biotech Bust”)

Recent Similar IPOs: HSCS (and not TNON… at least I can’t expect it to do what TNON did, which turned out to be akin to a Stealth IPO setup and was priced substantially higher that this one.

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be watching this one with no intention of playing it unless:
A) we see a significantly low volume on the opening print with a significant debut premium.
or
B) it tanks as hard as HSCS on Day 1 and falls throughout the day with no real reversal. So basically, it would have to fall below $2.00 into the close of the market, and then I’d take a flier on a possible Day 2 rally.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Wearable Devices (WLDS) – June 23, 2022 | 3.6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.20 – $7.20
Offering Size:
$0M
Shares Outstanding:
14.84M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This Israeli-based company makes a wrist-worn (bracelet) that senses nerve and muscle movements (“Surface Nerve Conductance”) in the wrist to determine finger actions to deliver an electronics control system with potential metaverse/virtual reality applications, as well as remote industry, robotics, smart home, and sports analytics applications. It’s also available for the iWatch, so it’s does have integrations with devices that are already well positioned in the marketplace.

Considerations: This actually sounds pretty frickin’ cool, but while gimmick along may have worked in the low-float IPOs of 2020 and 2021, this company seemingly just missed the ‘metaverse-hype’ craze that sent RBLX up to $140+ and MMTR as high as $37 in late November 2021 (they currently trade at $26.87 and $4.12 respectively). As far as strong IPO debuts driven purely on the trend and story behind the premise of the company, we haven’t really seen one deliver upside gains off the debut since LITM gave us an opening run from an open at $11.50 to a high at $18.40 on the premise of being a lithium miner (it now trades at $3.24).
While this company does deliver impressive growth numbers in terms of %, the real numbers themselves are rather small ($107k revenue in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021), and as futuristic as their technology sounds, I’m not sure the market is going to get overly excited about grabbing a piece of this company right out of the gate.
Bear in mind that recent high-tech IPOs out of Israel have not performed particularly well either: with MTEK and to a lesser-degree: SVRE each providing ample opportunity to lose money off their debuts.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+214% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+233% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
93% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the F-1:
– A significant amount of the funding from the IPO will go directly towards manufacturing and marketing their “Madura Band” for the Apple watch. Which is pretty encouraging IF this product catches on, but not really a factor that can be assumed as fact at the time of their IPO.
This also reminds me that we’re in the midst of a serious supply-chain crisis, and the likelihood of production delays seems almost certain.

Underwriters:
Aegis Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK SVRE

Trading Strategy:
I don’t see this one doing particularly well off the debut: we just haven’t seen anything run off the opening print on story alone, and the float isn’t that microscopic in comparison to the sub-2M float debuts we’ve had recently. It’s been on-and-off-again for a few weeks now, and is still available for pre-order on WeBull, so this is one I’ll watch from the sidelines for now.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Mobilicom (MOB) – June 23, 2022 | 2.15M Shares
Price Range:
$3.80 – $4.75
Offering Size:
$17M
Shares Outstanding:
4.3M

Industry: Drone cybersecurity

Overview:
Here we have another Israeli tech company, this one is an uplisting from the Australian stock exchange – the company itself develops combination hardware/software cybersecurity products for drones and UAVS with both commercial and military applications.

Considerations: Military drones have been somewhat in the spotlight due to their use in the Russia/Ukraine conflict; with reports of heavy anti-drone hacking impacts on both sides, there’s an argument to be made that there will be relatively high demand for products in this niche. Given the lower float, lower price point, and more relevant story behind this stock, if I had to pick between WLDS and MOB, I think I’d lean towards MOB (though that’s without knowing where either one will actually debut). This one is also available for pre-order on WeBull, and the underwriter – Think Equity – is somewhat due for an IPO that doesn’t outright dump off the debut. I don’t particularly like uplistings either, so I am pretty hesitant to see this one as debut buy. Perhaps if it gets hyped up on social media, but it’s more likely that the market it still to soft to push any IPO debut on story alone, and this one is just interesting enough to keep it from outright tanking – with a price point that minimizes the downside risk: which ultimately creates a situation where it will rise off dips and sell off any rips to the extent that it maintains a range slightly below the IPO price… until interest wanes and the price gradually descends to the $2.00 level and below. Like MTEK, it could make short-lived runs on small contract or buy-back news down the road, but I don’t see a clear IPO debut trade on this one.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+75% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
+80% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
67% for 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – slightly improving
– Net Income:
negative – slightly improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – slightly improving

Notes from the F-1:
– Risks: expected cost increases to fund R&D

Underwriters:
Think Equity

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK SVRE

Trading Strategy:
I’d love to see this one debut with a slight premium to the IPO price, but I doubt that will happen: if we do, I’ll try taking a small position on the debut. Otherwise, the most likely scenario I see playing out is a debut along the lines of MTEK: something like a sell-off, slight reversal that doesn’t quite break out over the IPO price, followed by another sell-off that never gets quite low enough to provide minimal downside risk, and runs that get sold off before the materialize into substantial win opportunities.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – June 23, 2022 | 1.7M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.92M

Industry: Websites

Overview:
This company acquires and manages cash flow positive websites in several industry verticals with 38 websites in their portfolio. They claim to generate over 4M monthly visits across their network, and from a list of case studies published on their website covering companies they decided NOT to buy-out, it seems they find target companies on website flipping platforms, and are considering some companies with less than $100k in annual revenue. The offering is for ‘units’ that consist of one share of common stock and two warrants.

Considerations: First off… two warrants?! Few IPOs have done well off the debut with just one warrant, let alone two warrants, and these are both redeemable at the IPO price, so there’s little chance that this runs much higher than the IPO price before warrant holders start dumping their shares. The company itself is not exciting: basically a bunch of relatively small websites that, individually, would be nowhere near IPO consideration, yet packaged together, somehow justify publicly listing this company on the NASDAQ.
The IPO should basically allow them to go buy even more websites to add to their stable of web properties, though they claim to not have any specific targets in mind. They also haven’t really demonstrated much skill in improving the performance of the websites they’ve purchased, as their growth numbers and baseline financials appear to be universally headed in the wrong direction.
I almost wonder why they’re even doing an IPO.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-25% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
-44% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
42% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – getting worse
– Net Income:
negative – getting worse
– Operating Profit:
negative – getting worse

Notes from the S-1:
– “As of the date of this prospectus, we cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the net proceeds to be received upon the completion of this offering.”
So basically, you just want some money from investors for the hell of it, and don’t really have any specific plans on what you’re going to do with it, right?
Onfolio: Yeah, that’s about it. but in the meantime,
”Pending the use of the net proceeds of this offering, we intend to invest the net proceeds in short-term investment-grade, interest-bearing securities.
I hope it’s not going into one of those BitCoin services that pays interest on your holdings.


Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR (sorta, but not expecting this kind of run)

Trading Strategy:
With 2 warrants involved, an EP at 100% of the IPO price, and being offered on WeBull, I don’t see how this offers even the hope of any upside.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low, but maybe some of the websites they own have limited brand recognition.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Ivanhoe Electric (IE) – June 4, 2022 | 14.4M Shares
Price Range:
$11.00 – $12.50
Offering Size:
$175M
Shares Outstanding:
0M

Industry: Mining and Energy Storage

Overview:
This is the first mainstream IPO we’ve seen since May with PFHC and EE in April before that. Ivanhoe is a metal mining company operating in America and overseas, and sells related technologies to other miners.

Considerations: I almost hesitate to label this as a “mainstream IPO” given that the lead underwriter is BMO Capital – an outfit that hasn’t been the lead underwriter on any IPOs in the past 12 months, but with Jefferies and JP Morgan attached, along with the substantial size of the deal, it’s certainly not a shady second-tier offering.
With that in mind, I do tend to like mainstream IPOs that debut in a cold market, especially if they come out right when the market is entering a reversal off bottoms. When the market is red-hot, for example in the second half of 2020 and first half of 2021, virtually every IPO debuted trading on the public markets with an incredible premium to the IPO price. A prime example: SNOW opened trading at $245 after pricing the IPO at $120 (which was way above the initial projected range). It still gave us an opening run up to $320 before reversing, and provided substantial upside from there over the next couple months (before receding since then to hit prices below even the IPO price, along with the rest of growth stocks).
In contrast, weak markets are anemic for IPOs, which means that when a mainstream IPO comes along and is willing to brave the chill of frosty market conditions, we get more reasonable pricing relative to traditional valuation. The underwriters still need to deliver a modest upside to their institutional investor clients, so we tend to see pricing fall within or below range, and retail demand is typically subdued a bit, so we don’t get extreme debut premiums. Looking back at EE and PFHC, we saw both of them provide debut entries with little downside risk, and while EE didn’t really offer much upside profit either, it did give debut buyers plenty of outs in the first 3 days of trading, while PFHC offered a nice little run on Day 1.. and broke out for a more profitable rally over the weeks following the IPO.
Beyond the market conditions, this company is a mining company and in addition to gold and silver, they mine metals that are used in electric vehicles, and that’s something that’s heavily in the spotlight these days. The float is pretty small for a mainstream IPO as well, and their growth numbers are rather impressive.
JP Morgan also tends to leave at least a little bit of meat on the bone for retailers to pick at.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+333% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
+440% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
99% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the S-1:

Underwriters:
BMO Capital Markets, Jefferies, JP Morgan

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: EE PFHC

Trading Strategy:
If the market is strong this week, and there is a buy-side imbalance with not too heavy of a debut premium, I like this IPO for a $1-2 upside to the debut price, and possibly more. Similarly, if we see it price at the low end of range, and debut below that, I like the chances of a move back up to and beyond the IPO price (the underwriters are likely to protect the price anywhere below the IPO price).

Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate-High.

+++

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
Content provided by Aly Angel: Follow on Twitter at
https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl

Most IPOs are subject to a 180 day lockup period before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX dates June 21st to June 24th

This week is slim, as 6 months ago, this would have been the Grinched week of X-Mas

There are several LPX tickers from May that are still on watch as they have given the indicators we watch for, before the runs

90-Day and 180-Day LPX

Locafy Limited (LCFY) wx LPFYW
Type:
IPO – dual listed Australia
LPX Date:
23-Jun-22
LPX Period: 90-day under gen rule
IPO Date: 25-Mar-22
IPO Price: $4.125

Exercise Price: 125% list price equal to $5.16
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a

Notes: 90-day LPX is under gen rule only, has 180-day LPX for 5.5m shares
– Reference 424B4 Filed 29-Mar-22

+++

NEXGEL, INC. (NXGL) wx NXGLW
Type:
OTC Uplist
LPX Date:
20-Jun-22
LPX Period: 6-month
IPO Date: 22-Dec-21
IPO Price: $5.50

Exercise Price: 2.5m sh unit at 100% equal to $5.50 & UW 112.5% equal to $6.19
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a

Notes: Uplist r/s ratio 1:35 (this is good) and has 60, 90, 120, 180 leak out

– Reference 424B4 Filed 23-Dec-21

+++

IPOs that hit 180-day LPX dates in the last 30 days, but have not run to EPs

Check date if there’s a secondary offering, as these take longer to run.


BEAT – EP $6 – IPO
BJDX – EP $7 – IPO
BLBX – EP $6.25 – Uplist
HTCR – EP $6.25 – IPO
STRN – EP $4.81 – $5.18 – IPO *has secondary
TIVC – EP $6.25 – IPO

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link

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