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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for August 1 – August 5, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for August 1 – August 5, 2022

August 2, 2022

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To put it bluntly, AMTD Digital’s (HKD) IPO has dramatically transformed the low-float IPO landscape since it charged from the already absurd level of $49 on July 27, 2022 to nearly touching $1,000 on August 1 (after pricing their IPO at $7.80 and debuting on July 15, 2022). In the same way that GME’s historic short-squeeze set off a barrage of imitation squeezes on all highly shorted equities back in January 2021 and continues to trigger insane runs in various iterations across SPAC, bankruptcy, and other incarnations – HKD has already inspired pumps in recent low-float IPOs and is likely to encourage traders to pile into upcoming debuts in hopes of catching the sequel.

The FOMO and MOMO (FOMOMO) are likely to provide enough impact to concoct a series of self-fulfilling prophesies in fresh low-float IPO issues, at least for the short term, and until enough day traders figure out how to buy he debut to the point where lofty debut premiums wash out any potential upside as the trade gets front-loaded and played out. Those of us who have been trading these setups for a while understand that there are huge differences in how these deals are distributed through the brokerages that have a major impact on how each IPO will trade, and there are quite a few hints in the pre-debut imbalance of each IPO to clue us in on how well it will perform.

For example: in the case of HKD: apparently the underwriters announced the issuance of 16M shares, “allocated” them to brokers, and then pulled their ADS (never actually delivered the shares). Brokers clients then called in to sell their shares, brokers sold, and then never got their shares, so they were put into short positions. With 88% of the shares held by AMTD, all they had to do was hold their shares tightly, and sell them to the manufactured shorts as the share price skyrocketed.. that’s one theory anyway. But points out that we are unlikely to see this setup repeat itself, and so the hope that we’ll see “the next HKD” is rather wishful thinking.

But we are likely to see intense demand for the next few low-float IPOs, which, by nature, are limited in supply to begin with. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up, and so I expect some prime opportunities in upcoming debuts. Add a Stealth element to the mix, and those are the trades where I’ll be looking to take larger position – provided I get the debut setup I have learned is typically correlated with a substantial upside run.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Bruush Oral Care (BRSH) – August 2, 2022 | 2.47M

  • Magic Empire Global (MEGL) – August 5, 2022 | 5M Shares

  • Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – August 5, 2022 | 1.7M Units

  • Jianzhi Education Tech (JZ) – TBD | 5M Shares

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Unfounded Conspiracy Theory on HKD and Why Not to Short Chinese Stocks Right Now

An Unfounded Conspiracy Theory on HKD

And why shorting Chinese stocks could be a very dangerous move right now.

July 29, 2022

We all just witnessed one of the most insane IPO debuts in recent memory, with AMTD Digital (HKD) going on a tear from pricing at $7.80 on July 14th, 2022, debuting at $13.00 the following day, and proceeding to hit a high of $485 on July 29th, 2022. That’s a 3,630% gain in basically two weeks: enough to turn $1,000 into $37k had you played the debut at $13 and held all the way to the top.

For those of us who regularly trade these low-float, typically Chinese IPOs, we’re used to extreme volatility: IPOs that price at $4-5 typically debut anywhere from $15-40, and we’ve seen a handful of them run up over $50 within a day or two of the debut. I’ve referred to them as “Stealth IPOs”, and have made a small fortune trading them. I even managed to identify HKD as a Stealth IPO, and bought in on the debut at $13 – though I took quick profits at $15 and only regret not having held into the $20s (there’s no way I stay in this one past $50 even in my wildest dreams). But looking back at the setup, perhaps it should have been more obvious that this one was poised for a massive runup, given the premise that I believe is behind these seemingly irrational runners.

To put things into perspective, this is not the first Chinese company’s IPO to rip from single digit IPO pricing to triple digits in a short time frame: WNW was the first one to really catch my attention, but looking backwards from there, I’ve found instances of similar setups going back to 2017. WNW snuck onto the IPO calendar in December 2020 and debuted at $7… three days later it peaked at $160.68 and currently trades at $0.68. I had just started trading IPOs, and was miffed at how I had missed this one, and even more confused when I began researching it and found out it was simply a Chinese traditional medicine vendor. Things didn’t make sense.

A few more passed, and I started setting up alerts to catch all IPO pricing events, and began picking up on some consistent elements of these deals: primarily the underwriters, and the fact that they’d debut with little to no press releases: uncommon for IPOs where drumming up investor interest in presumably a desirable objective. Even more uncommon was the nature of these businesses: insurance firms (TIRX), music labels (CPOP), even an actual house cleaning company (EJH) – once I got the hang of it, I nailed a few of them for inumaginable gains on companies I had never heard of knowing their stocks were worth $1 at best. This was not investing, this was trading on the back of something I only had a suspision about what it was about.

The best hypothesis I could come up with, was that this was simply money laundering – as I explained in The Stealth IPO article (link above) – simply put, wealthy Chinese who want to get their money out of China open accounts outside of China, assign IPO shares to those accounts, and then buy back those shares at ridiculous prices from their Chinese accounts to effectively transfer money out of China. Once they’ve reached their goals, they sell off the rest, likely shorting along the way, and we see moves like TIRX: going from a high of $97.92 on April 12, 2021 to a low of $12.15 the same day on no news catalyst whatsoever. It currently trades at $0.71. On the same day HKD touched $485, another recent Stealth IPO – VRAX, made it’s all time high at $29.00 after pricing at $5.00 a week earlier, only to close the day at $5.40 – an 81% drop.

Chinese Social and Political Unrest

If you’re paying attention to the political and social events in China, you’re probably already aware of the crackdown by the PRC on wealthy Chinese entrepreneurs: Jack Ma (CEO of Alibaba), was promptly smacked down after proclaiming that the Chinese government should be more progressive in its economic policies – the result was a forced withdrawl of Ant Financial’s IPO, and just today Ma announced he ceded control of Ant Group entirely.

Didi Global, after shunning Chinese exchanges against the wishes of the governemnt, debuted it’s IPO on the NYSE on June 30, 2021, only to be hit with a severe crackdown on it’s mobile app by the PRC, presumably for violating privacy laws, and was subsequently de-listed from the NYSE and is now planning to attempt a primary listing on the Hong Kong Exchange.

On to of all that, there is social turmoil brewing in response to a scandal over frozen Chinese bank account, unreset over COVID lockdowns, and ongoing disparity between the rich and poor. Enough to make any wealthy Chinese eager to expatriate whatever fortune they’ve amassed over the previous decade to non-Chinese controled institutions.

Oh, and one more thing – there may be an imminent war to reclaim Taiwan.

Back to the Stock Market

So what does all that have to do with AMTD Digital (HKD) stock?

Most of the Stealth IPOs we’ve seen come to market have contained a float of around 5M shares. HKD’s IPO brought 16M shares to issue – yet only 15k shares traded on the opening debut trade. Artificially constraining the float is a great way to force the price up – the higher the price goes, the easier it is to launder money through the market. The fewer outside buyers jump into trades on the target stock, the more efficient the process becomes. Who’s buying HKD over $100 except for insiders intentionally ‘losing’ money in the process of handing over funds from one of their accounts to the other (and presumably shorts getting squeezed along the way)? No one is, it’s all an inside game at that point.

So Where is HKD headed?

Well, if history repeats itself, this stock with eventually trade well below its $7.80 IPO price. So why not just short this thing and wait out whatever dip is just around the corner?

Well, for one, the insiders who are controlling this trade can hold out for as long as they like, and even drive the price up even further. Additionally, the borrow rate for shorting HKD is presumably quite high, and here’s where we could see the ultimate trap.

With the possibiity of a war between China and Taiwan brewing, and tensions heating up over the Taiwan straight, taking a short position on any Chinese stock could be a nightmare for investors – take a look at what’s happened with Russian stocks, such as CIAN, which have been halted since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. If you shorted it up over $9 on February 16, 2022 at $9.17, you made a great call: it closed at $3.31 on February 24 … if you didn’t close your position on February 24, then you are still stuck in the trade, as it has been halted since then. The issue here is that the borrow fees you’re paying have likely eaten up any profits you may have taken on the trade.

So shorting Chinese stocks, espcialy HKD, could be a disaster if war breaks out and forces them into never-ending halts.

Is it possible that AMTD shareholders know of something on the near-term horizon that could invoke such a situation? Ok, I know, flat out conspiracy theory, and I truly hope I’m way off base here, but stranger things have happened.

China’s “Lucky” Number – 88

So just to get completely wild with this – China is incredibly superstitious about numbers, with the number “8” being highly auspicious, and double 8’s being considered very lucky (the number 8 is pronounced “ba” which phonetically sounds like the word “fa” which means to make a fortune. In this line of thinking, August 8th would be 8-8, and perhaps would be a good time for China to reclaim Taiwan.

Ok, not gonna put too much weight on that, but let’s at least recognize that wealthy Chinese are likely feeling growing pressure to get their funds out of China, and the longer they wait, the more likely they are going to possibly be forced to relinquish or otherwise have their funds sequestered by the government.

Will There be Another HKD?

Yes, I believe there will be several coming up. I’ve traded, or watched nearly every Stealth IPO that has come to market in the past 2 years and have made a small fortune anticipating their moves. In the upcoming weeks, I will analyze and report my findings in the IPO Warriors Premium Newsletter, as well as host live-trading of these IPOs in Private YouTube streams.

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 25 – July 29, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 25 – July 29, 2022

July 25th, 2022

What more is there to say about the state of IPO trading these days: there are Stealth setups, and there are “The Rest”. “The Rest” have been on a continuous conveyor belt of reschedulings and pulled deals – the Stealth IPOs have delivered winning opportunities for just about every play: and outs for any potential miscues that have given patient bag holders plenty of forgiveness provided they exercised a bit of patience and were paying attention when their chance to exit at a non-loss – or even a profit – emerged (I should know, I’ve managed to turn red positions into green on a couple of these myself).

The other opportunity that has been delivering with some degree of regularity in IPO Land is the Lockup-Expiration play (“LPX”) on recent low-float IPOs – which again delivered on-time with TKLF entering LPX on Monday last week, and dropping PR on Friday: sending the stock from the $1.50 level to over $2.70 the day of the news drop. Going forward, I’m sniffing out Stealth IPOs, looking for reversal-rallies on broken IPOs, and scraping up potential LPX plays at bottoms (often selling out for 10-20% gains without any PR hits). In this market, there may be long-term bargains in beaten down growth and tech stocks, but with short term gains readily available in IPO plays, I’m primarily sticking to these trades.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Mobile Global Esports (MGAM) – July 29, 2022 | 1.5M Shares

  • MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – July 29, 2022 | 1.67M Shares

  • bioAffinity Tech (BIAF) – July 29, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – July 29, 2022 | 1.7M Units

  • Jianzhi Education Tech (JZ) – Sounds like this one has been pushed back

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IPO Warriors Premium IPO and LPX Preview for July 18 – July 22, 2022

IPO Warriors Premium IPO and LPX Preview for July 18 – July 22, 2022

July 18th, 2022

We still aren’t seeing enough stability in the market for mainstream IPOs to venture forward with their initial public offerings, but there is some indication that once the bottom is established, a backlog of popular names should be prepared to initiate their IPOs. Low float IPOs continue to be the best game in town, with both new debuts and recently launched offerings popping for substantial win opportunities.

Perhaps one benefit of these tepid market conditions, is that low-float IPOs that do not have a seemingly manipulated book are remaining on the sidelines, while those that are of the ‘Stealth’ variety debut unphased by diminished demand from both retail and institutional ‘investors’. These have become targets for day traders, pumpers, and the nature of their setups have provided relatively easy-to-read debuts. Those will be the plays we try to identify in the upcoming weeks, and will be ready to pounce on those debuts if we get the right setup in the pre-debut indication setup.

Remember to join the IPOWarriors Discord Channel for daily trading activity:
Live IPO trading and commentary on upcoming IPOs will be reserved for Premium Members within the #premium-members-room.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – Jul 21, 2022 | 1.35M Shares

  • bioAffinity Tech (BIAF) – July 22, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Wearable Devices (WLDS) – July 22, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Beamr Imaging (BMR) – Week of July 18, 2022

  • Jianzhi Education Tech (JZ) – Week of July 18, 2022 | 5M Shares

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 11 – July 15, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for July 11 – July 15, 2022

July 11, 2022

REMINDER: To continue receiving the full version of this newsletter, please subscribe to the IPO Warriors Premium Membership before July 17, 2022. Spaces are limited to 300 members and significant lifetime discounts are provided for the first 100 monthly and 100 annual subscribers.
Details and coupon codes are provided here:

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For the third week in a row, nearly every IPO that had been on the calendar the previous week has been rescheduled – most of them are on the slate for this week, but we’re already seeing casualties outright pulling their IPOs altogether (sorry WRNT, I guess even being a Network 1 Financial deal wasn’t enough).

I expect that by the end of the week, about half of the deals on the calendar get pushed back or cancelled, which is probably better anyway, since it will save us from trying to play deals that are most likely broken to begin with. On the upside, those that do make it to the gate, should have some positive momentum: either as a Stealth setup or perhaps even a company with genuine retail buzz/interest (we’re certainly more than overdue for one of those).

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Nano Labs (NA) – July 12, 2022 | 1.77M Shares

  • Intelligent Living Group (ILAG) – July 13, 2022 | 5.06M Shares

  • Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 14, 2022 | 1.35M Shares

  • bioAffinity Group (BIAF) – July 14, 2022 | 1.5M Units

  • Treasure Global (TGL) – July 14, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Wireless Devices (WDLS) – July 15, 2022 | 3.6M Shares

  • Onfolio (ONFO) – July 15, 2022 | 1.7M Units

  • AMTD Digital (HKD) – July 15, 2022 | 16M Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

Nano Labs (NA) – July 12, 2022 | 1.77M Shares
Price Range:
$11.35 – $11/51
Offering Size:
$20M
Shares Outstanding:
53.67M

Industry: Semiconductors

Overview:
This chip designer specializes in producing ASIC chips for high memory intensive applications such as crypto mining and gaming, specifically citing ‘metaverse’ utilization.

Considerations: They’ve cut the deal in half since this one was first scheduled for July 6, 2022 – when I first covered this I felt like the setup was a bit odd: they still have the 2-for-1 shares arrangement, so the float is more like 3.54M shares at a price of $5.75, but I’m hearing this one is oversubscribed, and have put in for an above average allocation request on WeBull to see what kind of fill I get on my order.
Here;s what I wrote last time:
Had this company gone public as late as November 2021, the buzzwords associated with anything ‘crypto’ and ‘metaverse’, not to mention ‘microchips’, would have been enough to send it on a multi-day run off whatever debut it came to market with. But things have changed dramatically since then, with cryptos in full hibernation and everything ‘meta’ down significantly since the company formerly known as Facebook put fantasies straight out of Ready Player One into the spotlight. But that doesn’t mean this one should be ignored – the fact that it’s a Chinese company with a low float could be the sign of a stealth setup, although the lead underwriter has not proven that it can reliably deliver the kind of upside squeeze that we typically look for in Stealth setups (LIZI, EBON, MF, KUKE, OG) with secondary underwriters involved that are sort of hit-and-miss. Pricing the IPO up around the $10 mark also leaves quite a bit of room for it to fall off the debut, though given how many Stealth IPOs price at $4-5 only to debut at $15-25 or more, perhaps this could help prevent IPO allocation recipients from dumping prematurely.
This one is interesting enough to watch the debut indication and make a game-time decision from there as to whether I trade this off the debut once we see the volume and pre-debut indication price for the opening print. I will likely get some further insights into the availability of IPO shares prior to the debut, and will share that with Premium Members if before the launch if I can dig up some further information.

It’s also worth noting that this company reduced the size of it’s IPO from a target of $50M in June 2022 to the current size target of $37M – either they couldn’t fill the book at $50M and it’s not a Stealth play, or they decided they could run their shenanigans more easily with 3.5M shares instead of 5M shares.
BUT, it’s also worth noting that each ADS represented in the IPO represent two class A ordinary shares. So in effect, their F-1 is representing 7M shares at a price of $4.75 – $6.25.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if some trading platforms have trouble with the ticker symbol being “NA” and simply list the stock as ‘Not Available’ (I’m looking squarely at YOU, WeBull).”

While I’m likely going to be tied up when this one debuts, I’ll have a close eye on it s a likely Stealth setup, and will try to play it off the debut if we see a healthy debut premium that’s not at a ridiculous level.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+1,958%% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Profits:
-600% for 2021 vs 2020
– Gross Margin:
-10% for 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
positive
– Net Income:
negative – expanding
– Operating Profit:
negative – exanding

Financial Summery: The financials are both dated, and as a Chinese manufacturer, subject to fairly large anomalies concurrent with COVID lockdowns, which continue to impact China’s manufacturing sector. This company has also indicated that the majority of sales to date have come from domestic markets, and that they intend to use the proceeds of this IPO to subsidies international expansion into the US market.
Still, these financials are pretty wild: with positive cash flow and quadruple revenue gains offset by negative gross profits and negative net income.

Link to the F-1: https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-22-185115/
Note from the F-1:
Nano Labs Ltd, an exempted company incorporated with limited liability under the laws of the Cayman Islands (the “Company”), proposes to issue and sell to the several Underwriters named in Schedule I hereto (the “Underwriters”) an aggregate of [3,540,000] Class A ordinary shares, par value US$0.0001 per share, of the Company (the “Firm Shares”) in the form of [1,770,000] American Depositary Shares
So basically, the float will be 3.54M shares and the cost basis for IPO allocations will be around $5.75 depending on where they end up pricing the IPO.

Underwriters:
AMTD Global Markets, Maxim Group LLC, and Tiger Brokers

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MF EBON KUKE OG

Trading Strategy:
On the surface, we have to assume this has Stealth potential, and is therefore poised to get pumped at some point. What makes this one tricky is the way they have structured the ADS as a ‘two-for-one’ deal, as this effectively doubles the float while maintaining a limited number of shareholders. One might expect the debut price to be half of the IPO price, but if this ends up being a Stealth setup, even a debut of double the IPO price would not be abnormal.
At first I was hesitant to play this one, and I may simply be too busy in the moment this one goes live to actively buy the debut, but I’ve warmed up to this deal as a potential ripper that I would expect to debut at a premium and run if it’s not priced out of the ballpark on the opening print.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High

My Allocation Request: I’ve put in for a larger-than-minimal allocation request through WeBull on this one, but see no point in going further than the $500 limit simply because I shouldn’t get more than $100 or so worth of stock allocated if it’s a good deal, and don’t want to get stuck with more than $500 if they end up dumping full allocations on us.

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Intelligent Living Applications (ILAG) – July 13, 2022 | 5.06M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00
Offering Size:
$25M
Shares Outstanding:
18.06M

Industry: Hardware

Overview:
This company sells locks manufactured in China.

Considerations: This is a Chinese company underwritten by Network 1 Financial. Historically, almost every Chinese IPO debuted by this underwriter has either opened at ridiculous premiums or opened at very high premiums and run to the moon over 1-2
days. Until that pattern breaks, I’ll keep asking for relatively healthy allocations.
You wanna look at their financials and a breakdown of the F-1? Be my guest, but as far as I’m concerned, the question is simply whether this is a Stealth IPO setup or not: and when It’s Network 1 Financial and a 5M@$5 offering, it’s not one I want to miss.
Ok, we’ll do the breakdown:

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-22% in 2019 vs 2018
– Gross Profits:
+14% in 2019 vs 2018 (on 10% GM)
– Gross Margin:
10% for 201

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Notes from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Network 1 Financial

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST GSUN

Trading Strategy:
Like all potential Stealth IPO setups, the first thing I’m looking for is confirmation that it’s getting pumped in the pre-debut imbalance period: for an IPO priced at $5, I’m looking for a debut premium in the $8 – $17 range or so, with opening volume around 100k shares. A debut price lower than that makes me think it’s not a Stealth setup afterall, and any higher than that and it’s too risky to play the debut. We’ve seen recent Stealth setups open in the $19 – $25 range (TOP and GSUN), and then dip down before rebounding. It’s pretty hard to call the bottom on these, and there have been some that never really bounced, so it’s definitely a riskier trade, but if we do get an open above my range of comfort on the debut, I may try to pick off a reversal with a partial entry around $17 with a double-down around $13, though I’ll keep my risk limited if it comes to that.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

My Allocation Request: Full.

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Virax Biolabs (VRAX) – July 14, 2022 | 1.35M Shares
Price Range:
$5.00
Offering Size:
$6M
Shares Outstanding:
11.4M

Industry: Diagnostics

Overview:
This company is primarily involved in the sales and distribution of diagnostic test kits and PPE devices with operations in the UK, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Considerations: They’ve pushed this one back from July 6, 2022, and while an ultra-low float IPO with connections to Hong Kong and Singapore underwritten by Boustead would have been a red-hot setup even a few months back, at this point the Boustead name has been tarnished by less-than-spectacular debuts in VINE, HTCR, and ASNS… they need to bring a winner to market to re-establish interest in their ability to deliver pops off the debut, but I’m not hearing much positive sentiment from the street.
Here’s what I wrote earlier in the month:

Another company that would have been a lock to blow up off their debut had they IPO’d at the height of the pandemic – but with an ultra-low float and an underwriter that pretty much wrote the book on Stealth IPOs but has struggled to deliver a substantial runner over the past couple of months, it seems this one could be poised to offer an ideal setup for a series of halts to the upside (provided that it doesn’t debut above my risk tolerance level). Given the underwriters and the scope of the company, this one either is a Stealth setup, in which case I watch for an entry opportunity, or it’s not, and can’t be touched until it bottoms out for either a short-term reversal or LPX play.
The company states several potential near-term catalysts in their Prospectus, including approvals for their ViraxClear Covid-19 test in Q2 2022, and commencement of sales of their ViraxCare AI-powered Sanitizing Bot in Q3 2022.
The potential for them to trigger runs on such a low float with ‘fluffy’ news is highly likely, so if this one consolidates down in the $1 bin, it’s a prime target for an LPX play.”

So most of that still holds true, but I do wonder how badly Boustead can afford to mess up another IPO, and with just 1.35M shares and direct ties to Asia, it seems like this one could still sneak in as a Stealth Setup. I’ve put in for a minimal allocation request on WeBull, and will watch the pre-debut indication for clues as to what this might actually do on the debut: when everyone else is sleeping on a play, that’s when we could get the best opportunities to get in before the rip. Just be careful, because the prevailing sentiment is decisively not positive on this one.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+23% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Profits:
-500% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021
– Gross Margin:
-7% for 12 months ending March 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative
– Net Income:
negative
– Operating Profit:
negative

Financial Summery: The financials are dated, and don’t really represent the path forward for this company, so I don’t think they play a major factor in assessing the setup for this stock. It’s not a company to invest in – this is a day trade at best.

Link to the F-1:
https://sec.report/Document/0001213900-22-035012/
Note from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Bousted Securities

IPO Classification:
Stealth IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: OST JCSE GSUN

Trading Strategy:
This should be a Stealth setup – priced at $5, debuts anywhere from $10 to $25 or more. I’ll be adhering to my risk limits on the debut, and will draw a line somewhere in the $15-20 range depending on the volume lined up to trade on the opening print. Any higher than that, and I don’t see enough upside potential vs downside risk. I’d be pretty surprised to see a debut premium is below $6, and will watch for a dip-reversal if that happens, but seeing how little upside was offered by Boustead’s ASNS and HTCR IPO debuts, it may be better to lay off and wait for a drop down to the $1 bin and then accumulate in anticipation of an eventual rally.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
High.

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bioAffinity Technologies (BIAF) – July 14, 2022 | 1.5M Units
Price Range:
$6.75
Offering Size:
$10M
Shares Outstanding:
7.5M

Industry: Biotech

Overview:
This is a diagnostics company focusing on non-invasive diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer and other lung diseases. They are per-revenue, and their lead diagnostic test is slated for FDA submission in Q3 2022, and expected to take 2-3 years.

Considerations: BIAF has been rescheduled again and again since the first week of June, and I’d be surprised if they don’t pull it or push it back again. I don’t plan on playing it one way or the other – looking for the Stealth setup and this doesn’t look like it.

Here’s what I wrote before:
This one doesn’t have anything particularly enticing about it, the price point at $6.75 offers plenty of downside, as it likely comes down to the $2 zone as demand disappears once the IPO concludes; the Units mean there are warrants issued alongside the common shares in the offering and almost guarantees a debut below the IPO price; and the underwriter has not sponsored an IPO in the past 12 months. Ostensibly, short term catalysts tied to the company’s lead candidate seem to be relatively distant in the future. Having said that, when it’s ultra-low-float, and it appears bad on the surface, any kind of manipulation in the trading volume could produce volatility: as we saw with HSCS last week, the Day 2 runner can emerge at any moment: particularly when we least expect it, so I’ll at least be keeping watch on this one, albeit from the corner of my eye. In the near-short term, say 180 days, there are some potential catalysts as it aims to proceed with commercialization of its lead candidate “as an LDT under the CLIA program administered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services”… so with a microscopic float, any positive headline could trigger a run to the exercise of the warrants (see below in the S-1 notes).”

Growth Numbers: none: it’s pre-revenue

Baseline Financials:
with no revenue, they’re all negative.

Notes from the S-1:
14 of our current stockholders have indicated an interest in purchasing Units in this Offering and we currently anticipate they may purchase approximately 6.2% of the Units in this Offering not assuming the exercise of the Over-Allotment Option
Actually, this is kind of rare, and since they already control 46% of the voting power of the common stock, the float is likely to be restrained.
Having completed the CLIA analytical validation, Precision Pathology is offering the CyPath® Lung test for sale with a controlled rollout beginning in Texas, which we anticipate will require six months, before expanding throughout the Southwest region of the U.S. through the first half of 2023. After establishing CyPath® Lung in the Southwest market, the laboratory will expand sales in 2023 to additional states with plans to market the test nationwide.
This aligns very nicely with a 180-day LPX, and warrant EP of 120% of the IPO price, ($8.10 based on the IPO price of $6.75). Keep that in mind if you want to pick this up on any pullbacks prior to LPX.

Underwriters:
WallachBeth Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float Biotech (aka “Biotech Bust”)

Recent Similar IPOs: HSCS (and not TNON… at least I can’t expect it to do what TNON did, which turned out to be akin to a Stealth IPO setup and was priced substantially higher that this one.

Trading Strategy:
I’ll be watching this one with no intention of playing it unless:
A) we see a significantly low volume on the opening print with a significant debut premium.
or
B) it tanks as hard as HSCS on Day 1 and falls throughout the day with no real reversal. So basically, it would have to fall below $2.00 into the close of the market, and then I’d take a flier on a possible Day 2 rally.

A better play would be to avoid the IPO altogether and set a reminder on your calendar for the 90 day and 180 LPX moves: consider building a position into these dates and hold for a spike on some form of contrived PR.


Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low

+++

Treasure Global (TGL) – July 14, 2022 | 3M Shares
Price Range:
$4.00 – $6.00
Offering Size:
$12M
Shares Outstanding:
16.42M

Industry: Financial Discounts App

Overview:
This company has developed an app that is primarily used in Malaysia for offering rebates and affiliate payments for online-to-offline transactions.

Considerations: This one has me a little bit suspicious that there’s some potential for a Stealth-like movement, though it’s an S-1 filing and EF Hutton has not brought us a definitive winner wince the HOUR debut at the beginning of the year. However, it does have ties to Asia, the growth numbers, at least on paper, are absurdly positive (even if not all that meaningful). I’m willing to take a shot on this one for a minimal allocation request on WeBull and am testing out my trading desk with EF Hutton for a slightly larger allocation (supposedly there have been some inquiries by institutional investors into this deal: so if there were to be a substantial anchor investor in the deal, shares could get tied up rather quickly).

Growth Numbers:
– Registered User Gowth: +164% for 9 mos ending 3/31/2022
– Revenue Growth: +15,000% for 9 mos ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profit: +14,000% for 9 mos ending March 31, 2022

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative

Notes from the S-1:
– The fact that this one is an S-1 at all, rather than an F-1, gives me pause as to whether this ends up being a Stealth IPO setup. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t run on low volume and a large anchor investor tying up the float.
Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Not really sure how to classify this one – definitely low float with Stealth potential

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR

Trading Strategy:
I kind of think this one might move like HOUR, though the float is substantially larger: I don’t expect a substantial debut premium like we see in most Stealth Setups – what I’m looking for is a slight debut premium, say $0.50 – $1.00 and a run that gradually materializes throughout the day. Possibly a dip-to-rip setup, so to the extent that I plan to play this one, I will be watching the debut and entering any new positions in small doses to ladder in, with the expectation that this reverses once the low float kicks in. If it debuts below the IPO price, I’ll simply bag-hold my allocation and wait for LPX to offload if we don’t get a Day 2 run.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Wearable Devices (WLDS) – July 15, 2022 | 3.6M Shares
Price Range:
$5.20 – $7.20
Offering Size:
$0M
Shares Outstanding:
14.84M

Industry: Wearable Technology

Overview:
This Israeli-based company makes a wrist-worn (bracelet) that senses nerve and muscle movements (“Surface Nerve Conductance”) in the wrist to determine finger actions to deliver an electronics control system with potential metaverse/virtual reality applications, as well as remote industry, robotics, smart home, and sports analytics applications. It’s also available for the iWatch, so it’s does have integrations with devices that are already well positioned in the marketplace.

Considerations: Rescheduled a few times going back to March 2022, this one is trying to get to the public markets to fund development of it’s Apple iWatch wristband.
Here’s what I wrote back in June”

This actually sounds pretty frickin’ cool, but while gimmick along may have worked in the low-float IPOs of 2020 and 2021, this company seemingly just missed the ‘metaverse-hype’ craze that sent RBLX up to $140+ and MMTR as high as $37 in late November 2021 (they currently trade at $26.87 and $4.12 respectively). As far as strong IPO debuts driven purely on the trend and story behind the premise of the company, we haven’t really seen one deliver upside gains off the debut since LITM gave us an opening run from an open at $11.50 to a high at $18.40 on the premise of being a lithium miner (it now trades at $3.24).
While this company does deliver impressive growth numbers in terms of %, the real numbers themselves are rather small ($107k revenue in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021), and as futuristic as their technology sounds, I’m not sure the market is going to get overly excited about grabbing a piece of this company right out of the gate.
Bear in mind that recent high-tech IPOs out of Israel have not performed particularly well either: with MTEK and to a lesser-degree: SVRE each providing ample opportunity to lose money off their debuts.”

I’m not sure if I just really want an IPO to run purely on low-float and cool story, but I just don’t sense any real buzz around this one yet, and until we have an IPO that gets some coverage in other mainstream media and generates some meaningful social buzz, I can’t justify trying to play a debut trade on this one. If we do get some hype around this one before Friday’s launch, and there’s a decent buy-side imbalance in the pre-debut imbalance, I could be convinced to give this one a shot as a debut trade. Otherwise, I look forward to picking this one up going into the 90-day LPX and being in position to capitalize on their announcements related to development progress on their iWatch enabled product.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
+214% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Profits:
+233% for 6 months ending June 30, 2021
– Gross Margin:
93% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – improving
– Net Income:
negative – improving
– Operating Profit:
negative – improving

Notes from the F-1:
– A significant amount of the funding from the IPO will go directly towards manufacturing and marketing their “Madura Band” for the Apple watch. Which is pretty encouraging IF this product catches on, but not really a factor that can be assumed as fact at the time of their IPO.
This also reminds me that we’re in the midst of a serious supply-chain crisis, and the likelihood of production delays seems almost certain.


Underwriters:
Aegis Capital

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: MTEK SVRE

Trading Strategy:
I don’t see this one doing particularly well off the debut: we just haven’t seen anything run off the opening print on story alone, and the float isn’t that microscopic in comparison to the sub-2M float debuts we’ve had recently. It’s been on-and-off-again for a few weeks now, and is still available for pre-order on WeBull, so I’ll be leaning towards the sidelines on this one, but admittedly could be swayed into taking a play on this one if I sense some hype along with a buy-side imbalance and modest debut premium going into the opening print.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

Onfolio Holdings (ONFO) – July 15, 2022 | 1.7M Units
Price Range:
$4.50 – $5.50
Offering Size:
$15M
Shares Outstanding:
12.92M

Industry: Websites

Overview:
This company acquires and manages cash flow positive websites in several industry verticals with 38 websites in their portfolio. They claim to generate over 4M monthly visits across their network, and from a list of case studies published on their website covering companies they decided NOT to buy-out, it seems they find target companies on website flipping platforms, and are considering some companies with less than $100k in annual revenue. The offering is for ‘units’ that consist of one share of common stock and two warrants.

Considerations: Rescheduled again and again – my guess for this week is, “again.”
Here’s what I wrote before:

First off… two warrants?! Few IPOs have done well off the debut with just one warrant, let alone two warrants, and these are both redeemable at the IPO price, so there’s little chance that this runs much higher than the IPO price before warrant holders start dumping their shares. The company itself is not exciting: basically a bunch of relatively small websites that, individually, would be nowhere near IPO consideration, yet packaged together, somehow justify publicly listing this company on the NASDAQ.
The IPO should basically allow them to go buy even more websites to add to their stable of web properties, though they claim to not have any specific targets in mind. They also haven’t really demonstrated much skill in improving the performance of the websites they’ve purchased, as their growth numbers and baseline financials appear to be universally headed in the wrong direction.
I almost wonder why they’re even doing an IPO.”

There’s just nothing I like about this one, so if I’m wrong, ok, doubt it will affect my trading strategy going forward one way or another. If I had to pick one stock that would again delay their listing this week, this would be my top pick, followed by BIAF.

Growth Numbers:
– Revenue Growth:
-25% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Profits:
-44% for 3 months ending March 31, 2022
– Gross Margin:
42% for 6 months ending 31, 2021

Baseline Financials:
– Cash Flow:
negative – getting worse
– Net Income:
negative – getting worse
– Operating Profit:
negative – getting worse

Notes from the S-1:
– “As of the date of this prospectus, we cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the net proceeds to be received upon the completion of this offering.”
So basically, you just want some money from investors for the hell of it, and don’t really have any specific plans on what you’re going to do with it, right?
Onfolio: Yeah, that’s about it. but in the meantime,
”Pending the use of the net proceeds of this offering, we intend to invest the net proceeds in short-term investment-grade, interest-bearing securities.
I hope it’s not going into one of those BitCoin services that pays interest on your holdings.


Underwriters:
EF Hutton

IPO Classification:
Low Float IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: HOUR (sorta, but not expecting this kind of run) CISO (but like, not really – just another company that acquired a bunch of other smaller companies, except at least CISO was in a hot sector in cybersecurity).

Trading Strategy:
With 2 warrants involved, an EP at 100% of the IPO price, and being offered on WeBull, I don’t see how this offers even the hope of any upside.

Brand Name Recognition:
Low, but maybe some of the websites they own have limited brand recognition.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Low.

+++

AMTD Digital (HKD) – July 15, 2022 | 16M Shares
Price Range:
$6.80 – $8.20
Offering Size:
$120M
Shares Outstanding:
185M

Industry: Digital Banking

Overview:
Digital bank in Hong Kond

Considerations: This one has also been perpetually rescheduled since June… June 2021 that is, making it the most prolific repeat offender on this list of habitually rescheduled IPOs. Perhaps due to ongoing concerns related to Chinese financial regulations, especially in terms of US listed IPOs, this one was forced to wait for conditions to normalize before going public. Interestingly, the parent company of this subsidiary, is also the parent company of the underwriter for Nano Labs (AMTD Global Markets)… so while they are not permitted to underwrite their own IPO, they should have some insights as to how they should handle their debut launch so as to avoid an embarrassing IPO. Back in June 2021, this was available for allocation request on WeBull – this time around they are not offering retail traders any shares, and with less than 10% of the total shares outstanding being offered in the IPO, as a mainstream IPO, this one is relatively ‘low float’.

Financials”:
– Revenue Growth:
+17% for fiscal year ending April 2021
– Net Profit: +65% for 10 months ending 2/28/2022

Notes from the F-1:

Underwriters:
Maxim Group and Livermore Holdings Ltd

IPO Classification:
Mainstream IPO

Recent Similar IPOs: None come to mind. Chinese but not Stealth.

Trading Strategy:
Hard to call it this far out, I’ll send out a mid-week update if I hear anything encouraging. Certainly interesting, and may come down to a game-time decision for me: buy-side imbalance with low volume could be a positive setup indication. There was a time when all Chinese IPOs ran off the debut, even the non-low floaters, so if they end up taking this live, I suspect they may be confident of delivering a winning performer.

Brand Name Recognition:
Moderate.

Debut Trade Conviction Level:
Moderate.

+++

Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:
by Aly Angel:
https://twitter.com/tradingfitgirl
Get her Guides!
https://tradingfitgirl.net/trading-guides

Most IPOs are subject to 90 and/or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.

LPX dates July 11th to 15th

Genius Group Limited (GNS)
Type:
IPO
IPO Date:
12-Apr-22
IPO Price: $6.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 90-day
Exercise Price: $7.50 ref 424B4 12-Apr-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This was a stealth IPO and had a recent walk and drop. At this time, this is a general rule LPX date, meaning it is on watch, but def using stops and if it does not move w/ in a few weeks, would not want to hold the capital. Would look to load closer to the 180-day time frame
I would like to see this knife/ die before the 180-day, as most of these types of plays do.

+++

Sharps Technology (STSS)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
14-Apr-22
IPO Price: $4.25
LPX Date: 13-Jul-22
LPX Period: 90-day
Exercise Price: $7.50 ref 424B4 15-Apr-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This was a day 2 pop play (which is not an active play w/ the IPO debuts right now). The OA timeframe did have volume and the chart is currently on a reversal. This is a general 90-day rule play and same as GNS, not a hold through the next LPX timeframe.
This is on a reversal currently, meaning also a channel play even w/ out the LPX potential.

+++

Hillstream BioPharma Inc. (HILS)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
12-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 180-day
Exercise Price: $5.00 ref 424B4 13-Jan-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
This is trading in the lower channel, just above the All Time Lows, and on a reversal. We have had multi-day runners lately, meaning when this runs, there are potentially several opportunities to play. As always, stop-losses should be moved up and do not chase into volume.

+++

Yoshitsu Co. (TKLF)
Type: IPO
IPO Date:
18-Jan-22
IPO Price: $4.00
LPX Date: 11-Jul-22
LPX Period: 180-day
Exercise Price: $4.80 ref 424B4 11-Jan-22
Secondary Offering Exercise Price: n/a
Notes:
Another stealth IPO that ran volume during the OA period. Currently trading at lows. This would be a channel add for the LPX play, respecting risk as this is at the higher side of the vol profile channel.

Short Watchlist:
Keeping several IPOs, past the 90 or 180-day LPX dates, on watch.
Will usually have 6 -8 weeks past and 4 weeks in the future on watch/ positions.
ALWAYS respect your risk and only get in on the lower side of the channels for longer term holds. And only playing tickers that have an EP. No EP, does not deserve our attention.

No longer watching tickers w a secondary offering. They are not in play right now, so not wasting energy on them until the play is back and it will be. Everything goes in cycles.

Link to access my public spreadsheet, for a list of IPO and Uplist LPX info, & YouTube ticker previews https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning

“The best way to not break something is to understand how it really works.”

For a full list of IPOs and Uplist LPX dates and video reviews
https://tradingfitgirl.net/always-learning for the direct Spreadsheet Link

+++

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WeBull Allocation Requests – July 8, 2022

IPO Allocation Requests on WeBull as of July 8, 2022

July 8, 2022

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