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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for December 6 – December 10, 2021

IPOWarriors IPO Preview for December 6 – December 10, 2021

December 8th, 2021

Apologies for the delayed delivery, but wanted to wait to see if anything was added to the calendar this week after Monday, and then got caught up with some things yesterday… given the performance of today’s IPOs, I don’t think you missed out on anything (and if you follow me on Twitter, you got the CING prediction that proved to be very accurate).

Ok, let’s jump in.

So, we already got CING and REFI

Cingulate (CING) –
we’ve covered this one for weeks, so if you regularly read this newsletter, you’re familiar with it. Low float biotech with warrants involved, so generally not a great setup. Priced at $6 and debuted at $5, then dropped to as low as $4.05. These tend to consolidate at a bottom and then make some weak breakout runs. Unlikely to get much further than $5.00 today, but if it drops below $3 in the upcoming weeks, could be an interesting hold for an eventual headline to send it up to the $6-7 range. Beware of a followup offering at that point.

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) – A financing company that provides primary lines of credit to the cannabis industry. Might be an interesting long term business, but not a particularly attractive IPO debut trade so I wasn’t playing it. Debuted at $16.40, little bit of down/up action, currently at $16.46 as of writing this, so kind of what I predicted. This is the kind of IPO debut where maybe you can extract a point here or there in timing the bottom, but not really worth the time and effort in my opinion.

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Ok, now let’s focus on what’s left in the week:

HashiCorp (HCP) – December 9, 2021 | 15.3M Shares
This is a leading cloud-based SaaS that allows enterprise level clients to simplify and automate their IT infrastructure. A year ago this would have been a red hot debut, with fears of inflation at the top of investors minds, it will be interesting to see how this IPO is received by the market, given it’s impressive growth metrics and position as a leading cloud/data company that gets comparisons to MongoDB and Snowflake – both of whom defied the recent trend of tech companies tanking even on good earnings reports.
HCP boasts revenue growth up +50% in the 9 months ending 10/31/2021 and +74% for the full year ending Jan 31, 2021, along with gross profit up 56% over the 9 months ending 10/31/2021 and +76% for full year ending Jan 31, 2021. Margins have come up to 84% in the past 9 months from 81% for FYE Jan 31, 2021. On top of that, they claim customer retention of 127%, and operating losses are shrinking along with net income. Cash flow is the only major concern here, as it appears to be increasing: and this is perhaps my only concern with how the market will receive their debut. On one hand, the market seems to have a short memory, and appears to have all but shrugged off last week’s Fed statements about impending interest rate hikes and inflation: on the other hand, the Fed has more announcements coming in next week.
The low float of this stock makes it an attractive IPO play, and while it was offered to retail investors through WeBull and other trading platforms, if the allocations are tiny, that indicates a good sign. If they are substantial, I’ll be weary of this, as it would indicate a lack of interest from institutional investors.
Usually, a company with this profile would be an obvious debut buy, for a 1-2 day hold. In this market, I still think it’s a play, but if I’m given the opportunity to take profits on Day 1, I will, and don’t want to still be in this trade by next Tuesday, when I have uncertainties about what J-Pow’s next statements will do to the market.
Note: I’ve also put in an allocation request for this one, and will post on Twitter what kind of allocation I receive, if any. A high allocation generally indicates low demand, and would serve as a warning against taking a position on the debut. A minimal or zero allocation would give me confidence to trade this with a substantial opening buy at the debut price.

Nubank (NU) – December 9, 2021 | 289M Shares
Nubank is a rapidly growing digital bank serving the Latin American market, and is backed by serious institutional investors including Warren Buffet. Just about everything about Nubank sounds incredibly positive: addressing a large and undeserved market, exceptional growth, and a passionate customer base.
Their revenue growth is up +99% in the 9 months ending Sept 30, 2021, but they swung to cash flow negative (about -$1B) during that period.
What I don’t like about this IPO is that the float is huge… like, enormous. So even at a very accessible price point of $8-9 on the IPO, it would take substantial retail demand to substantially move this share price up to a degree that would make this an exciting debut trade for me. Additionally, existing shareholders are planning to sell 43.4M shares, which indicates to me, that they are not anticipating much of a short-term upside to this stock. I also expect that retail allocations will be high: another indicator of poor debut performance. Interesting to watch this, but won’t be trading it.

NeuroSense Therapeutics (NRSN) – December 9, 2021 | 1.84M Shares
This is a biotech with a low float. That’s the story. They have drugs in Phase 2 clinical trials with ‘orphan drug’ designation, and they are addressing ALS, with other applications to address Alzheimer’s and and Parkinson’s. The IPO has warrants, so I dunno, probably a pass. But then again, the float is micro, so who knows. I put in for a small allocation request on WeBull to gauge what level it gets filled. Seeing that it’s still available for more orders, I tend to think this one is not going to be that hot. Anyway, don’t want to get stuck in anything given what’s possibly on the calendar for Friday.

Austin Gold (AUST) – December 10, 2021 | 3M Shares
Also rescheduled again and again from last week (and the week before, and the week berore…), this one is a gold prospecting company based out of Vancouver with claims in Nevada. Their website is laughably bad, with no updated information, and some pages showing error messages. Interestingly, the CEO just sold his previous gold mining company, Pretium Resources, for $2.8B at a significant premium for shareholders, so this does look somewhat legitimate. On the downside, the market has not been too friendly to Roth Capital IPOs, so I’m not sure this will get much immediate retail demand. Then again, gold is considered an inflation hedge, and perhaps that brings this one some attention. Maybe one to watch, but unless the temperature of the social buzz around this one gets hot, I’ll be watching it from the sidelines.

Sidu Space (SIDU) – December 10, 2021 | 3M Shares
Ok, so this is the one I am most excited to share with you, and since it wasn’t added to any of the IPO calendars until Tuesday, was what makes the patience for this newsletter likely worth the wait.
This company is a satellite technology producer offering rapidly scalable, low-cost satellite services that aim to make space-based data accessible to companies of all sizes. They are part of a consortium that won a NASA contract last September (NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate), so they will be generating some revenue from that, and current revenues $1.8M in 2020 and $885k in the 9 moths ending Sept 31, 2021…so, not too sexy in terms of growth or financials.
BUT, what makes this an attractive play is that it is a Boustead Securities offering with a low float, in an exciting industry. So we expect day traders to jump in, rip this through a halt or two, and then … well, I don’t know what happens from there, and I’ll be out of the trade by then anyway. Maybe it goes crazy as day traders pile in, maybe it crashes: the space puns write themselves… ‘to the moon’ or ‘crash and burn’, either way, it’s setup for a debut spike. So get in on the opening trade, sell at least part of your position out of each halt, and if we’re lucky enough to see 3 halts, sell the rest. That’s my plan anyway, and I doubt I’ll stick around for a 3rd halt. By next week this will almost certainly fallen out of the sky.

Note: the information contained in this article is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. This is just information to give you ideas so you can do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I will most likely be taking positions in some of the equities listed in this email. Previous success is not an indication of future performance. Trading stocks is risky, you can lose money. Good luck out there.



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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 22 – November 26, 2021

IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 22 – November 26, 2021

November 23rd, 2021

We’re heading into a shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and a half day on Friday. No major IPOs on the calendar, but a few worth keeping an eye on, and of course, with most traders taking the back half of the week off, we will be keeping our eyes peeled for a possible Stealth IPO launch.
Having said that, I’ll be out picking up a turkey on Wednesday, so unless there is a Stealth IPO (
you can read about what these are here), I’ll just be passively watching these.

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It’s not too late to add contributions, as I have identified some additional needs that would help me in video production (like, some video editing software):

https://fundly.com/ipowarriors-streaming-equipment

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Ok, let’s get through these:

Cingulate (CING) – 11/24/2021 | 3M Shares
So, here we have a pharmaceutical company who’s IPO has been rescheduled at least 3 times, and who knows if they’ll debut this week. They are developing improved drug delivery technology for ADHD treatments for drugs that are already approved. I don’t know much about this, though I’ve read confirmations that poor release times are a pain point for ADHD medication (the irony that ADHD patients would be impatient is not lost on me), and would need to see a significant interest from social media traders to give this one a shot. As for me, I’m not sure it will hold my attention, nor that of other traders. Probably a pass.

Austin Gold (AUST) – 11/24/2021 | 3M Shares
Also rescheduled from last week, this one is a gold prospecting company based out of Vancouver with claims in Nevada. Their website is laughably bad, with no updated information, and some pages showing error messages. Interestingly, the CEO just sold his previous gold mining company, Pretium Resources, for $2.8B at a significant premium for shareholders, so this does look somewhat legitimate. On the downside, the market has not been too friendly to Roth Capital IPOs, so I’m not sure this will get much immediate retail demand. Then again, gold is considered an inflation hedge, and perhaps that brings this one some attention. Maybe one to watch, but unless the temperature of the social buzz around this one gets hot, I’ll be watching it from the sidelines.

Skylight Health Group (SLHGP) – 11/24/2021 | ??
This is an uplisting from the TSX: some affordable healthcare service provider. I’m not excited about it, uplistings generally don’t do well unless they’re either a essentially a stealth-IPO in disguise (FCUV) or something super hot like crypto mining when BTC is in an uptrend (ARBK). As I’ve explained before, the pop based on any benefits provided by an uplisting is usually already priced into the share price, and plenty of existing shareholders are ready to exit. So I don’t see any reason to get particularly excited about this one.

Sangoma Technologies (SANG) – 11/24/2021 | 5.5M Shares
Another uplisting: cloud communications services for small and medium sized businesses. No thanks.

AeroClean Technologies (AERC) – 11/24/2021 | 2.5M Shares
Ok, so… if someone held a gun to my head and forced me to pick an IPO to play this week, I’d have to go with this one. It’s a micro-float debut for a company that has patented filtration and UV cleaning technology that reportedly eliminates 99.9% of viruses and bacteria from the air. Basically, a COVID play with a low float, on a slow market day. So yeah, this one could be interesting.

Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) – 11/24/2021 | 2.3M Share
Complicated sounding biotech with 2.3M shares… something about precision medicines for oncology. I’m not gonna try to make sense of biotech IPOs anymore. 9/10 do poorly, the random one that rips is quick to fade, and if you get stuck, the bag holding process generally takes a long time to reverse, if ever.

But… maybe we’ll get a stealth IPO this week?
Well, so we’ve been tracking GSUN for a while now, given that the underwriter, Network 1 Financial, has managed several high flying random Chinese IPOs in the past, and it’s been a while since they brought anything to the table. Conditions are ripe for wealthy Chinese to want to move their money from beyond the wall of the PRC, and we had an update to the GSUN F-1/a statement last week. If you WERE trying to debut an IPO under the radar, with minimal attention, it seems that trying to sneak it in before (or after) Thanksgiving would be a good fit. I’ll be watching this very carefully, and will do what I can to send out updates if we hear any news.

Oh, and another thing. You should consider that all of the IPOs on the calendar for this week are on Wednesday. Thursday is Thanksgiving, so the market is closed, and Friday is a half day (markets close at 1PM). Consider this when playing any IPOs, as I would expect any Wednesday debuts to be all but completely forgotten by the time the market opens up again next week on Monday, November 29th. So I would not go chasing EOD runs, or holding for Day 2 rallies.

Note: the information contained in this article is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. This is just information to give you ideas so you can do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I will most likely be taking positions in some of the equities listed in this email. Previous success is not an indication of future performance. Trading stocks is risky, you can lose money. Good luck out there.


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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 15 – November 19, 2021

IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 15 – November 19, 2021

November 15th, 2021

Thanks again to everyone (all 10 of you) who contributed to the IPOWarriors Streaming gear campaign: we reached the $2,000 goal in just 1 week!

It’s not too late to add contributions, as I have identified some additional needs that would help me in video production (like, some video editing software):

https://fundly.com/ipowarriors-streaming-equipment

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To be honest, last week was a bit exhausting… so many IPOs; ranging from blockbusters to random low-float plays. Many win opportunities, and some doozieys as well. While this week doesn’t present any obvious blockbuster IPOs, there are some interesting debuts on the calendar that present potential plays. Let’s take a look:

Sono Group (SEV) – 11/17/2021 | 10M Shares
If I were to pick three buzzwords for the current market, I would pick “solar”, “EVs” and “Crypto”… well, this company produces a proprietary solar coating for electric vehicles: now if the car could mine crypto with the excess energy, we’d have a trifecta, but we’ll have to settle for 2 out of 3. Given the performance of the Rivian IPO, along with the rising tide that seems to be lifting all EV stocks not named “TSLA” (which is reversing for reasons that can best be explained as its CEO having to pay taxes), SEV seems like it should get adequate market attention. While they are pre-revenue, they claim to have $50M in customer deposits for their in-house developed ‘Sion’ vehicle, and plan to license their technology to other EV manufacturers. The float is relatively small, and there’s already chatter on the social networks. I don’t recommend buying a long term position off the debut, but worth taking a short term play on the debut given the potent buzzwords.

Iris Energy (IREN) – 11/17/2021 | 8.2M Shares
Here we have another bitcoin miner, with ridiculously impressive grown numbers: revenue is up 736% in the 3 months ending September 30, 2021, and gross profit is up 1,208% in the same time frame. Then again, the price of BTCUSD is up roughly 500% in that same period, so we’re not really able to compare those metrics on the underlying strength of their mining capabilities. They have achieved positive cash flow and operating profit, and they intend on using a portion of the IPO money to buy more hardware. So if you think bitcoin will continue to increase in value, or if you just recognize the demand for bitcoin mining companies, then this is a pretty attractive IPO. Especially if Bitcoin continues its current upward trajectory throughout the week, this is an IPO that is likely going to get attention and worth playing off the debut.

User Testing (USER) – 11/17/2021 | 14M Shares
This company provides a platform for companies to test user engagement processes, and boasts revenue growth +44% in the 9 months ending September 30, 2021 and gross profits up +51.5% over the same period, with gross margins at a health 74%. However, they have negative cash flow, operating losses, and negative net income. Beyond that, there is a somewhat unusual clause hidden in the S-1 that allows them to sell an additional 27M shares in roughly February if the share price holds at 10% above the IPO price for at least 10 days – some other stipulations in there too, but the bottom line is there is a reasonable chance that the float will more than double prior to a normal 180 lockup period, and these types of features spook me when it comes to IPO debuts. Anyone who traded CPNG off the debut will recall the free fall that ensued, only to later realize that hidden in the S-1 filings were provisions that allowed for a massive early lockup expiration with in 5 days if the stock traded above a certain threshold that was met upon debut. Be forewarned.

Braze (BRZE) – 11/17/2021 | 8M Shares
Interestingly, this is another customer engagement platform with slightly better growth numbers but also carries negative stats across its baseline financials. Revenue is up 52.6% in the 6 months ending July 31, 2021 and gross profit is up 60% in the same period.Gross margin is slightly lower than USER, at 67%. This one is getting comparisons to WEAV, which stumbled in it’s IPO last week, though has since made a recovery, but the valuation here is higher, and its client list boasts larger corporate clients including Etsy, HBO, Dominoes Pizza, and Intuit. If I had to chose between USER and BRZE, I’d probably lean towards BRZE. I’m not quite sure about this one, but given how some of last week’s tech IPOs performed (EXFY and BLZE), I’ll give it some consideration and see where it debuts.

Sweetgreen (SG) – 11/18/2021 | 12.5M Shares
This is ‘plant-forward’ restaurant chain that has just purchased a Spyce: a company that produces a robotic-kitchen platform. So… having missed the runs on BROS and PTLO, and given the relatively decent performance of FWRG: all regional food and beverage chains, I’m leaning towards buying SG on the debut in hopes that it can follow suit. I’m not yet convinced that it has the same avid following as the others, but if FWRG can at least provide an upward move from its debut, then I like SG.
As for the financials, it has been rebounding out of COVID with momentum, and revenue is up +50% in the 39 weeks ending September 26, 2021 while gross profits are up +89% over the same period with gross margins at 40%. But unlike some of the other chains we’ve seen go on massive runs, this one posts negative cash flow, net income, and operating losses. So while it’s not quite coming to the plate with as much buzz as BROS or PTLO, I feel it has more going for it than FWRG, so I’ll likely be taking an order of SG on the debut.

KinderCare Learning (KLC) – 11/18/2021 | 25.7M Shares
This company operates nearly 1,500 children’s education centers in America, with just shy of 200k kids in its programs ranging from as young as 6 weeks old up to 12 year olds. They are gaining momentum as the country opens up from COVID, and parents need a place to keep their young children while they return to work. Revenue is up +35% in the 9 months ending October 2, 2021, and gross profits are up +134% in that time period. Note: these numbers are compared to peak lockdown eras, so should be taken with a grain of salt. But they do post positive cash flow, net income, and operating profit: so the company is pretty solid. The float is on the higher side, and I’m not sure there will be much retail excitement over this name, so I’ll probably pass.

Austin Gold (AUST) – 11/19/2021 | 3M Shares
Friday brings us the expected odd lot of low-float debuts that have at times delivered nice small win opportunities: but were, for the most part, complete failures that never caught any momentum. This one is a gold prospecting company based out of Vancouver with claims in Nevada. Their website is laughably bad, with no updated information, and some pages showing error messages. Interestingly, the CEO just sold his previous gold mining company, Pretium Resources, for $2.8B at a significant premium for shareholders, so this does look somewhat legitimate. On the downside, the market has not been too friendly to Roth Capital IPOs, so I’m not sure this will get much immediate retail demand. Maybe one to watch, but unless the temperature of the social buzz around this one gets hot, I’ll be watching it from the sidelines.

Snow Lake Resources (LITM) – 11/19/2021 | 2.85M Shares
Another mining company with a low float, this Lithium Miner is also pre-revenue at this point, but may be more interesting than AUST for the simple reasons that ThinkEquity is the underwriter, along with there being generally more interest in anything EV-related (Lithium is used for producing EV batteries), and the float is slightly lower. If I had to pick one, I guess I’d go with the one that has an EV angle, and if I’m not too tied up on Friday, may give this one a try with a token play just… well, to avoid the boredom of not having any other IPOs to play (generally a terrible reason to buy an IPO debut, but there are some reasons to see potential in this trade).

We’ll see if any other IPOs sneak onto the calendar mid-week, and if there are enough to warrant attention, I’ll send out a mid-week update.

Note: the information contained in this article is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. This is just information to give you ideas so you can do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I will most likely be taking positions in some of the equities listed in this email. Previous success is not an indication of future performance. Trading stocks is risky, you can lose money. Good luck out there.

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Mid-Week Update Going into November 11, 2021

Mid-Week Update Going into November 11, 2021

November 10th, 2021

Looks like we have a bunch of freshly IPOs added to the calendar this week that didn’t make the initial Weekly newsletter, so I’m gonna try to cover what I can here. Mostly a lot of low-float noise, but hey: we’ve seen some really take off (SOPA), so there are plays worth investigating of all shapes and sizes.

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Before we get started… I’d like to thank everyone who has contributed funding the streaming equipment I’m looking to buy so I can produce video rundowns on featured IPOs and to live-trade the debuts on YouTube. We’ve already reached $1,644 out of the $2,000 goal. We’re SO CLOSE! If my research and information has helped you make profits, please consider a contribution (we’re just $356 away).

The link to donate is here:

https://fundly.com/ipowarriors-streaming-equipment

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Backblaze (BLZE) – 11/11/2021 | 6.25M Shares
Covered this one already, but my opinion on this one has changed a little, and now I’m planning to give this one a shot: mainly due to the rather dedicated fan base this company seems to have amongst its clients and those who use it’s services. This is a cloud based data storage company that sounds a lot like Dropbox for small businesses, but it’s been brought to my attention by members of the IPOW community that they have some unique features that make their services stand out in the space. They have a somewhat loyal customer base with a net retention rate of 114%, but growth is not particularly impressive for a cloud/software company at +24% revenue growth and +14.6% gross profit growth over the 6 months ending June 30, 2021. They do have positive cash flow, but negative operating profit and net income. Low float could kick in if day traders like this one, and the buzz on social media has been louder than I had expected. If they get an appearance on CNBC tomorrow before the debut or even after it’s started trading, that could be a difference maker.

Vaxxinity (VAXX) – 11/11/2021 | 6.7M Shares
This is a clinical stage biotech that develops vaccines for chronic diseases using a proprietary technology licensed from other companies. Their lead Phase 2 candidates focus on Alzheimer’s and Covid19, which are two of the buzziest applications in the market right now, and may be sufficient reason to break my general rule about not playing biotech IPOs.

HeartBeam (BEAT) – 11/11/2021 | 2.75M Shares
This company produces a medical device that detects heart attacks. Their device is not yet approved by the FDA, though they do have 3 patents pending, and have a peer reviewed medical publication expected to come out this month. Notably, they state in their S-1, that they currently do not have enough funding to complete 510(k) FDA clearance – and do not have any path towards revenues until their device clears FDA approval. My take on this is that it may sound a bit like IINN, and the low float alone may make this an interesting Day 1 debut, but whereas IINN claims to have ample funding to get through the FDA approval process, BEAT flat out states that without additional funding, they will fail. So… maybe it’s a fun little day trade setup, but not something that I expect to run beyond maybe a move up $1 or so from a starting point of $4.00 or $5.00… maybe an early pre-market move, but I would be pretty surprised if this flew beyond that (then again, keep an eye on social media: with the rest of the market in a bit of a hangover/pullback, maybe all the focus will be on low-float IPOs tomorrow.

KidPik (PIK) – 11/11/2021 | 1.67M Shares
Ok, well, if you just ignored the underlying companies and went with the lowest of the low float debuts, this one would take the cake, with a minuscule float of just 1.67M shares. We covered this last week, and it got rescheduled for this week, so I’m just gonna re-post what I said about their company…
Their growth numbers aren’t bad, with revenue up 70% over the 26 weeks ending July 2, 2021 and gross profits up 76% over the same period (but it is a bit odd that they’ve calculated growth on a period of 26 weeks and not the standard 6 mos). Baseline financials are negative across cash flow, net income, and operating profits, and the numbers are more indicative of a small business than a public company: as a footnote, the CEO’s son is the VP, COO, CTO, and Secretary. So, I don’t know, maybe a low float play: the underwriter is EF Hutton, and they’ve had a few low floaters that ran up enough to make this potentially interesting, but don’t get yourself stuck in this one. Volume is likely to disappear if it shows up at all, so tread lightly on any play in this relatively unknown ticker. The underwriter is EF Hutton, they’ve done a few recent low float IPOs, some of which went up enough to make it worth playing them. I dunno, hard to get excited about this one, but then again… JUST 1.67 Million Shares ?! (Holdup, just read an update that AHI is coming in with even an even lower float… )

Tivic Health Systems (TIVC) – 11/11/2021 | 2.7M Shares
This company produces medical devices designed to alleviate sinus pain through a vibrating device that delivers an electrical current to relieve sinus pain. They already have FDA 510(k) clearance as of 2019 and are developing other devices, but they don’t make much money. Revenue is up 122% in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021, but that’s in comparison to peak Covid, and the total revenue is just $547,000 — nothing too exciting. They have negative gross profit, which is never a good sign, and negative gross margin. All this together with negative baseline financials, make this a pretty shaky company in terms of financial analysis… but…
It’s a ThinkEquity underwritten IPO, and the float is just 2.7M shares, so who knows.

Advanced Human Imaging (AHI) – 11/12/2021 | 1M Shares
This is an Australian company that develops software that measures the dimensions of a user’s body using a smartphone. Which kind of sounds interesting in light of the applications for clothing sizing, tele-health, as well as the potential for rendering proportionate avatars in a ‘metaverse’ environment. They actually produce revenue, but the growth numbers are a bit outdated (revenue +150% in 6 months ending December 31,2020). They’ve cut their IPO in half from initially intending to raise $24M through ADS, and are now issuing just 1M ‘units’ that consist of a share plus warrants (2 I believe).
Oh yeah, and it’s a Maxim Group play, so given what Maxim just did with SOPA, I imagine that there will be quite a lot of interest in this debut (though I doubt it follows the same script.)
But this is also the lowest float IPO of the week (and I don’t really ever recall having an IPO with just 1M shares before, so I’m pretty interested to see what this one does in this IPO environment, and very likely to give it a shot myself.

Journey Medical Corp (DERM) – 11/12/2021 | 3.2M Shares
This is a commercial stage biotech focusing on dermatological conditions that is being spun off from Fortress Biotech. They have 5 branded products and 3 generics, and are raising funds to pay for marketing and expansion. They DO produce revenue, so that’s a nice change for a biotech IPO.
Interestingly, they got hacked in a cybersecurity attack in September 2021 and their accounts payable department was tricked into sending nearly $10M to fraudulent accounts, which is a pretty big hit for a small growth company, but was absorbed by the parent company in the form of a note that will be converted to common stock upon the consummation of the IPO at the IPO price.
So it sort of seems like the IPO will be funding a cybersecurity attack… weird.
It also seems to indicate that at the expected float will expand by roughly 800k-1M shares upon commencement of the IPO (depending on final pricing of the IPO). Still a very small float, and the company is relatively safe compared to other biotech debuts, but it’s also a Roth Capital underwritten play, so I dunno if it will get a very warm reception.

In summary, there are a ton of

Others that I already mentioned in the weekly newsletter are:

Mynaric (MYNA) – 11/11/2021 | 4M Shares
– Weave Communications (WEAV) – 11/11/2021 | 5M Shares
– Lulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings (LVLU) – 11/11/2021 | 5.75M Shares
Blue Water Vaccines (BWV) – Unscheduled | 2.2M Shares

All low-float, which have been relatively good plays for small patient wins (SOPA went ballistic, but even BJDX and STRN gave win opportunities this week).

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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 8 – November 12, 2021

IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 8 – November 12, 2021

November 9th, 2021

Some interesting IPOs on the calendar ranging from no-name low float debuts to ready-made meme stocks just waiting to test the waters on the public exchange (some as the next chapter in a Lazarus Man move): and amongst all the noise and gimmicks, we look for IPO trades that fit the standard mold of winning debut setups.

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Before we get started… I’d like to start live-streaming IPO debuts and trading on YouTube, but need to upgrade my equipment. We’ve already reached $1,590 out of the $2,000 goal. This will also be used in my Benzinga appearances, so if you feel like supporting this cause, I’d greatly appreciated it. The link to donate is here:

https://fundly.com/ipowarriors-streaming-equipment

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Ok, this letter is going out a little bit late this week, and we’ve already seen a few debuts go live, so gonna have to keep this kind of short:

Hertz Global (HTZ) – 11/09/2021 | 37M Shares
We’re still waiting for the debut of this meme favorite, as it completes its round trip from into OTC trading and returns from the brink of bankruptcy. For those who held through the dark times, or sensed the opportunity to buy this under $1 when it got kicked out to the OTC markets under the HTZGQ ticker. Now it’s coming back to life on the NASDAQ with 44M shares being offered at $29/share. The funds being raised will not go to the company, so a follow-up offering is expected imminently, which would usually signal caution, but in this meme-driven market, a frenzy could ensue around this one once it releases the shares and completes the ticker change. I’m really not sure about this one, and have stayed on the sidelines for nearly all of the short-squeeze/meme/recovery plays, so I’m not sure I will change my strategy for this one. I’ll keep an eye on it, but given that it’s been trading pretty actively in OTC markets, the price point may already be stabilized. Not a trade to be made on any premise other than pure social momentum.

Society Pass (SOPA) – 11/09/2021 | 2.8M Shares
This one already debuted a few moments ago, well above the IPO price at $15.50 and into a halt at $18.20. I suspected this might be a Stealth IPO type of play, but WeBull shut off the indication price indicator prior to the debut, so it would have meant flying in the dark. It’s still in its first halt here, on relatively low volume, so this one could make further moves upwards, but the company itself is pretty suspect, so not a long term hold or anything worth chasing.
… in the course of writing this newsletter, SOPA has ripped through multiple halts and is not halted at $33.36
I called this one out on the Benzinga Show yesterday, but missed the entry… oh well… will get the next one.

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) – 11/09/2021 | 3M Shares
Another debut that already went live, pretty much trading sideways from its opening print… a little more movement than usual for a bank on debut, but volume has died down and it’s trading below the debut price, so sitting this one out proved to be prudent.

Expensify (EXFY) – 11/10/2021 | 9.7M Shares
This is a fairly well known expense management software that helps businesses and individuals manage spending and expense accounting. More importantly than the impressive revenue growth of 60% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 and gross profit +96% over the same period, is a the trifecta of baseline financial metrics with positive operating profit, net income, and cash flow. With a relatively low float of just 9.7M shares, I like this one for a solid IPO debut.

CI&T Inc (CINT) – 11/10/2021 | 19.4M Shares
Despite frequent YouTube ads highlighting the expertise of this company, I still can’t quite explain what they do, except that they are a consultancy that provides high level engineering services to a global customer base. They have solid revenue and gross profit growth numbers over the last 6 months ending June 30, 2021 (+38% and +32% respectively), but those numbers are in contrast to peak pandemic, and for an engineering firm, that would seem to have a big impact. They are net income positive, but cash flow negative over those same 6 months, and this one just feels like something that will go over the heads of most retail traders. Maybe a solid long term hold, or buy if it debuts below IPO price, for a recovery play, but not all that exciting to me.

FlexEnergy Green Solutions (FLXE) – 11/10/2021 | 3.8M Shares
Rescheduled from last week, not much changed from what I wrote then:
Low float, and green-energy? Kind of sounds interesting, but this producer of gas turbines and heat exchangers for alternative energy is posting financials that are about as bad as I’ve ever seen in an S-1, so I’m not sure even a low float makes it worth trying to game this one. Revenue is down 20% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 with gross profits down 55% during the same period. Oh, and the underwriter is Roth Capital, and for some reason, the market has been giving their IPOs the cold shoulder ever since I’ve been covering IPOs, so I’m not too eager to take the chance on this one being an exception to the rule. No thanks.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) – 11/10/2021 | 135M Shares
All eyes will be on RIVN when this one debuts, with comps to TSLA and F – and backed by AMZN (and F), this one is likely to debut at a premium, which gives me some pause for caution, given the enormous float of 135M shares. Generally, I stay away from anything with this many shares, but will keep an eye on it.

Weave Communications (WEAV) – 11/11/2021 | 5M Shares
This is a SaaS communications platform for small and medium sized businesses, that claims revenue growth up 54% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 and Gross Profits up 59% over the same period, but again, we don’t know if that is all that meaningful when compared to peak COVID times. With negative operating profits, net income, and cash flow, it seems the main thing going for this one is the low float. And at 5M shares, that’s become less attractive than the 2-3M share floats that have been getting more attention recently.

Backblaze (BLZE) – 11/11/2021 | 6.25M Shares
This is a cloud based data storage company that sounds a lot like Dropbox for small businesses. They have a somewhat loyal customer base with a net retention rate of 114%, but growth is not particularly impressive for a cloud/software company at +24% revenue growth and +14.6% gross profit growth over the 6 mons ending June 30, 2021. They do have positive cash flow, but negative operating profit and net income. Low float could kick in if day traders like this one, but not really super low, so if it gets overlooked, trading could be thin and demand weak.

Mynaric (MYNA) – 11/11/2021 | 4M Shares
This is an interesting sounding company that produces laser-based space communication equipment (lasers in space?!). They have a small number of clients: so revenue is a bit lumpy, which means we have to take the 406% revenue growth in the 6 months ending June 30, 2021 with a grain of salt. Gross profit is up 28% in that period as well, but all baseline financials are negative, so this is not going to be a profitable company anytime soon. It is interesting that the CEO is opting to purchase $75k worth of IPO stock, which is rare, and the float is just 4M shares. So keep an eye on this one.

Lulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings (LVLU) – 11/11/2021 | 5.75M Shares
Couldn’t find much information on this one, but it is basically a women’s fashion retailer that sells clothes through what appears to be a Shopify storefront. Net revenue and gross profits are up 23% and 32% respectively in the 6 months ending July 4, 2021 and they have been net income positive over that time frame. I don’t see anything particularly attractive about this play, even with 5.75M share float, and in my view, clothing retail and direct-to-consumer IOP plays have been relatively weak unless there is a sort of fanatical brand support (BIRD).

Blue Water Vaccines (BWV) – Unscheduled | 2.2M Shares
Info also scarce on this one: pre-clinical biotech involved with research and development of a longer lasting vaccine for influenza (the common cold). It will be a while before they have any revenue or profits, but it is a Maxim IPO (and they just handled the SOPA IPO that blew up today, although I there are not comparable parallels)

Note: the information contained in this article is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. This is just information to give you ideas so you can do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I will most likely be taking positions in some of the equities listed in this email. Previous success is not an indication of future performance. Trading stocks is risky, you can lose money. Good luck out there.

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IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 1 – November 5, 2021

IPOWarriors IPO Preview for November 1 – November 5, 2021

November 2nd, 2021

We’ve got another full plate of IPOs this week, featuring a pair of Russian companies with strong numbers, a few names you’re probably more familiar with, and some low float debuts that are gonna get a lot of attention.

Ok, let’s take a look at this week’s IPOs:

LianBio (LIAN) – November 2, 2021 | 20.3M Shares
This one actually already debuted, and if you missed it, well, you’re a happy camper, as this one debuted at $15.50 and pretty much just went down and then down further, to a close at $13.75. It then resumed its downward trend on Day 2, and is currently at $13.39. If you’re looking for a really long term hold that doesn’t have much more room to fall, I’m not sure it’s there yet, but it’s certainly at quite a discount to its IPO price.

Allbirds (BIRD) – November 3, 2021 | 19M Shares
This company is well-known for its comfort shoes made of eco-friendly materials, and has decent revenue growth of 26% over the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021, and gross profit up 32% in the same time period, but has negative cash flow, operating losses, and negative net income. The real question is whether this will spark interest in the retail segment: does it get compared to CROX? That would be great. Or does it fall into the bag with other Direct-to-Consumer models that have not done well out of their IPOs (HNST, DTC, even WRBY took a while to recover from a post-IPO dip). If you do play this off the debut and get stuck on Day 1, a Day 2 recovery is feasible, and the partnership with Adidas could be a longer term catalyst on the horizon that might buoy the price back up in case you really get stuck bag holding. So perhaps not too much downside if the debut premium is limited, but I am not too excited about this one, and am looking for more high conviction debut plays in which to put my money this week (though I may change my mind come IPO time on this one).

Claros Mortgage Trust (CMTG) – November 3, 2021 | 7M Shares
Not gonna spend too much time on this one: this company focuses on financing transitional commercial real estate assets, which may be a good business, but this one falls in the category of regional banks and investment vehicles that generally trade in a pretty sideways range off the IPO debut, so for me it’s a pass.

Delimobil (DMOB) – November 3, 2021 | 20M Shares
This is a Russian ride-sharing and car rental platform that offers impressive growth numbers in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021, but we’ve seen this time frame has been a bit misleading as it is comparing financials against the first 6 months of COVID lockdowns, which seems a bit too selective for any objective analysis. They are cash flow positive, and while net income and operating profits are negative, those metrics are also moving in the right direction. I simply haven’t had great luck on most foreign IPOs, as American retail traders seem to be unfamiliar with the brand names, and until they prove themselves with some positive earnings reports, often get ignored in the market. I’ll watch this one, and if it does perform well off the debut, may get into another Russian IPO we have on slate later in the week.

NerdWallet (NRDS) – November 4, 2021 | 7.25M Shares
A name many are familiar with due to their aggressive approach to dominating search results for keywords generally associated with financial services, this company does offer a bit of brand name recognition, but is ultimately heavily dependent on competing in Google’s search results for revenue. Essentially, they are content company, and they’ve done an impressive job in turning an essentially non-technical web advertising platform into a highly valued, and soon-to-be public company. They posted some impressive growth numbers in the 9 mos ending September 30, 2021: with revenue up 48% and gross profits up 50% on gross margins of 92%: however, they swung from positive to negative in cash flow, net income, and operating profit in 2021. I’m a little concerned that their debut will mimic that of OB, which has performed pretty poorly since the IPO.

Evotec (EVO) – November 4, 2021 | 22M Shares
This is a 25 year old German drug discovery platform with modest growth numbers that I’m not too excited about: in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 revenue is up 17.5% and gross profits are up 6%. Beyond that, other drug discovery platforms have not done all that well off their IPOs, such as ABCL, so I’m not gonna try to catch this one.

Arhaus (ARHS) – November 4, 2021 | 22.9M Shares
An omni-channel luxury/premium furniture retailer with impressive growth numbers and solid financials: this one could get comps to W, which was one of the darlings of the lockdown trading frenzy, so this one could be interesting. With growth numbers in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 of +58% on revenue, and +75% on gross profits, we see numbers that might actually be a good sign that growth has continued out of lock down. With positive cash flow, net income, and operating profit, this one is a company that would potentially even make a decent long term hold should the IPO debut fail to deliver an immediate pop.

Mainz Biomed (MYNZ) – November 4, 2021 | 2M Shares
This is perhaps the pick of the week – given the ultra-low float and the fact that the underwriter is Boustead Securities: a firm that has regularly delivered high-flying debut trades… and this company actually appears to have a solid business model. MYNZ is a German cancer diagnostics company that uses molecular genetics to test for a range of conditions including colon cancer and in-vitro diagnostics. With a device already approved in the EU for colon screening, which they are ready to bring to America for the FDA approval process, this company is in a strong position to deliver near-term catalysts that should push the stock higher in case it fails to perform on the debut. Given the early buzz on social networks around this IPO, my only concern is that the debut price gets inflated beyond a sustainable level above the $4-6 expected IPO price range, so I will likely approach it as follows:
IF the debut price is above $8, THEN buy a half position on the debut, and double down if we get a downward move from the debut
IF the debut price is below $8, THEN buy a full position on the debut
My guess is that we see multiple halts out of the gate, in which case, I’ll be selling out of my position in lots starting with the second halt: three halts and I’ll likely be totally out, but might save a little for the possibility of a continued run.
If we don’t see halts, I’ll be expecting at least one halt up later in the day, and will take profits out of that halt if it comes to that scenario.
If you’re trading this in an account that has early pre-market trading hours, consider holding a partial position to sell in the opening pre-market trading hours of Day 2.

Cadre (CDRE) – November 4, 2021 | 5.7M Shares
This 55-year-old company is a major provider of emergency equipment for first responders, and the IPO was rescheduled from August 2021 and downsized from 7.15M shares to a relatively low float of just 5.7M shares. Provided we get a reasonable debut price, I like this one for a quick debut scalp, which may take a little more time for day traders to pick up on, but more likely to give an opportunity for a modest profit than to tank.

MDxHealth (MDXH) – November 4, 2021 | 3.77M Shares
On the surface, this is a low-float IPO, and likely to attract some day-traders. But upon further investigation, it’s an uplisting from the Belgian exchange for a prostate cancer diagnostics system. Sounds really similar to MYNZ, but the lead underwriter is Piper Sandler, and they just don’t have the same track record of skyrocketing IPOs as Boustead does. So given that these are scheduled for the same day, and this one is an uplisting, I prefer to focus on MYNZ. Oh yeah, and in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 revenue is only up 8% and gross profits are up 11%… in case anyone cares.

Desert Peak Minerals (DPM) – November 5, 2021 | 10M Shares
This company holds royalty interests on oil and natural gas leases in the Permian Basin, and has generated revenue growth +85% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021, with net income up to $9.5M from a loss of $12.2M … so the numbers aren’t bad, but I’m not sure this one gets much retail interest. AND, it’s a Friday play, so I’m gonna pass on the prospect of having to try to carefully manage a slow moving IPO for a dollar win and take a look at some of the other IPOs on Friday’s lineup.

Cian (CIAN) – November 5, 2021 |18.2M Shares
Here we have the next Russian debut of the week: a real estate platform with comps to Z, and despite strong growth numbers including revenue +65% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021, has negative cash flow and operating losses. For somewhat unrelated reasons, Z tanked hard today on poor earnings compounded with punishment for an ill-directed attempt to automate the buying and selling of houses, so I’m not sure the market wants to buy a Russian version of this, even if the business models are not exact matches. For the same reasons I’m gonna pass on DMOB, I don’t see myself wanting to jump into this one.

Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) – November 5, 2021 | 2.3M Shares
Ovarian cancer treatments: I usually have a no-touch policy on pre-clinical biotech, but in this market when the underwriter has delivered some interesting low-float debuts (this time we’re talking about ThinkEquity), and the float is just 2.3M shares, it deserves consideration. My decision on whether or not to play this off the debut will come down to how much social media buzz we hear on the days leading up to the IPO. If there’s not much buzz, maybe I’ll wait and see if I can catch a dip before the trading groups start pumping this one. And I would caution against trying to catch a Day 2 early pre-market spike simply because it’s a Friday IPO that might get forgotten by the time Monday morning rolls around.

IO Biotech (IOBT) – Unscheduled 6.5M Shares
This Danish biotech company IPO just showed up on my radar, and I haven’t done much research yet, but they claim to be developing disruptive immuno-oncology therapies based on their proprietary platform. They’re in clinical stage, and the float is not quite low enough to be a target for low-float IPOs, so I’m gonna follow my ‘no-biotech’ rule on this one, and if I miss a winner, oh well: gonna stick to what I know.

The Real Good Food Company (RGF) – Unscheduled |5.3M Shares
This company makes healthy food alternatives to comfort foods, but it’s an uplisting from OTCQB (VRYYF), so I’m not sure if the hype around the move to the NASDAQ has already been priced in: we often see these drop once trading starts, and I just don’t know if the hype will drive retail interest on this one. Will be interesting to watch, but come Friday, I’ve got to be pretty excited about a debut to maintain focus, and more likely to err on the side of caution, so this one is likely a pass.

FlexEnergy Green Solutions (FLXE) – Unscheduled | 3.88M Shares
Low float, and green-energy? Kind of sounds interesting, but this producer of gas turbines and heat exchangers for alternative energy is posting financials that are about as bad as I’ve ever seen in an S-1, so I’m not sure even a low float makes it worth trying to game this one. Revenue is down 20% in the 6 mos ending June 30, 2021 with gross profits down 55% during the same period. Oh, and the underwriter is Roth Capital, and for some reason, the market has been giving their IPOs the cold shoulder ever since I’ve been covering IPOs, so I’m not too eager to take the chance on this one being an exception to the rule. No thanks.

KidPick (PIK) – Unscheduled | 1.6M Shares
This one kind of snuck onto the IPO schedule, and appears to be a family run ecommerce business that sells children’s clothing on a subscription basis. Their growth numbers aren’t bad, with revenue up 70% over the 26 weeks ending July 2, 2021 and gross profits up 76% over the same period (but it is a bit odd that they’ve calculated growth on a period of 26 weeks and not the standard 6 mos). Baseline financials are negative across cash flow, net income, and operating profits, and the numbers are more indicative of a small business than a public company: as a footnote, the CEO’s son is the VP, COO, CTO, and Secretary. So, I don’t know, maybe a low float play: the underwriter is EF Hutton, and they’ve had a few low floaters that ran up enough to make this potentially interesting, but don’t get yourself stuck in this one. Volume is likely to disappear if it shows up at all, so tread lightly on any play in this relatively unknown ticker.

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Ok, so that wraps up the review for this week. Good luck out there.

Note: the information contained in this article is not financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor. This is just information to give you ideas so you can do your own research and make your own trading decisions. I will most likely be taking positions in some of the equities listed in this email. Previous success is not an indication of future performance. Trading stocks is risky, you can lose money. Good luck out there.

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