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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for October 17 – October 21, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for October 17 – October 21, 2022

October 18, 2022

I guess it doesn’t take much to get the market back in the mood for IPOs – after worse-than-expected CPI data last Friday, the market tanked as expected. But over the weekend, it seems that traders decided it either wasn’t that bad, it was already priced in, perhaps we’d at least gotten closer to the bottom, or perhaps just “screw it – buy more stocks”… and Monday saw a strong rebound rally that carried into Tuesday. And so now we MIGHT have conditions conducive to a few IPOs!

We even have a mainstream IPO coming onto the calendar this week, albeit a biotech, and the low-float IPOs are all faces that we’ve become perhaps a bit too familiar with due to their persistent attempts to debut despite repeated failures to fill their order books. I’m not sure that a less tepid market makes these offerings any more appealing, and I don’t have any reason to believe that all of a sudden there will be high demand for these debuts from day traders. With the NASDAQ scrutinizing every issue that comes to market, it will be surprising if any of these are able to pull off the kind of shenanigans that have ensured a significant pop off the debut in some of these setups, and I don’t see anything resembling the kind of hype that has sent these setups on substantial post-debut rallies in recent years (and nothing even close to what we saw after HKD re-configured day traders’ perceptions of what was possible).

I’ll be mostly watching this week’s debuts from the sidelines – partially due to a planned family vacation, but also simply because we haven’t seen an IPO deliver a strong debut trade since NASDAQ reigned in the IPO train.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Alopexx (ALPX) – October 20, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Prime Medicine (PRME) – October 20, 2022 | 8.9M Shares

  • Beamr Imaging (BMR) – October 21, 2022 | 3M Shares

  • Intensity Therapeutics (INTS) – October 21, 2022 | 2.22M Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

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Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:

Most IPOs are subject to either 90 or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.
Conversely, with low-float IPOs, we often see press releases and other announcements dropped going into, or slightly following LPX, presumably as insiders attempt to drive up the share price before they are able to exercise their warrants and sell their shares.

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for October 3 – October 7, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for October 3 – October 7, 2022

October 6, 2022

Well, after LASE basically crapped the bed in it’s rather well-structured IPO last week, it seems that we have no IPOs on the calendar this week. Though we’d hoped for ALPX to debut (I mean, perhaps “hope” isn’t really applicable since there was nothing particularly enticing about that offering), it appears to have been pushed due to lack of interest from investors.

So… for the time being, I’m looking at some Lockup Expiration setups for Chinese Stealth deals that were done about 5 months ago with LPX dates coming at the end of the month, and scalping some day trades here and there on early pre-market headlines.

These setups and more are continuously discussed everyday in our active trading community in the IPOWarriors Discord Channel
Live IPO trading and commentary on upcoming IPOs will be reserved for Premium Members within the #premium-members-room, but currently, there is a plethora of winning call-outs being made on a daily basis by regular contributors to the group (which includes some highly followed and well-known Twitter accounts with expertise in chart reading, SPACs, options trading, and more).

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Nothin’

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Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:

Most IPOs are subject to either 90 or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.
Conversely, with low-float IPOs, we often see press releases and other announcements dropped going into, or slightly following LPX, presumably as insiders attempt to drive up the share price before they are able to exercise their warrants and sell their shares.

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Here are the LPX setups I’m watching to potentially patiently build positions.Most of these are previous Chinese Stealth IPOs sitting at relatively low prices. The risk here is that they are duds and don’t make any kind of run into LPX. Those at the $2.00 mark can relatively easily drop down to the $0.80 level, but we’ve also seen them run as high as $20+ (HUDI SOPA). The bigger risk is that they simply take too long to pan out and you end up watching them bleed out – once we get about 2 weeks past the LPX, you gotta manage your downside with stop-losses: ideally above entry, which is why I start patiently bottom-feeding on these a few weeks ahead of LPX.
We also see these sometimes take much longer than expected; see BEAT, which finally ran this past week or so: there were a lot of long-term bag-holders in that one that finally got an out – and holding past the initial pop-day is not as easy as it sounds.

Another approach is to simply be aware of these as potential LPX movers, and if you see one of them pop up on a pre-market scanner, check to see if there’s a news headline: even a fluffy PR drop can get these moving pretty hard.

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 26 – September 30, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 26 – September 30, 2022

September 29, 2022

I decided to delay sending out this week’s newsletter until there was something definitive to report regarding the IPO debut calendar. As most of you know, there has been a bit of a moratorium placed on fresh IPO debuts by NASDAQ as they attempt to sort out the root cause of the extreme pop-and-drop movements we’ve been seeing in recent IPOs, particularly the Chinese variety of F-1 filings that have made relatively ridiculous runs from single to triple, even quadruple digits in single trading sessions. The aim appears to be implementing new rules to curb this kind of volatility, or possibly to ensure that shareholders are not trading shares back and forth between their own accounts to either manipulate prices or launder money.

Meanwhile, a rather obscure IPO (AMV) managed to squeak through the cracks on Tuesday under Regulation A and Regulation CF crowdfunding offerings (so, no underwriters and no recent S-1 filing). We were on top of it and covering the debut in the Premium Discord channel: a few of us hopped in on the debut and caught a monster run from an opening trade of $30 that ripped as high as $300.00 in after hours trading (I was already out for the day when it finally debuted). This one didn’t appear to be any kind of Stealth setup – simply a case of mishandled processing where the majority of shareholders were unable to sell their IPO shares on the debut: so basically a massive logistical oversight by the company, while NASDAQ appears to have been more focused on scrutinizing Chinese debuts. Oh well, clearly the IPO process is not as orderly as we might expect it to be, and not the first time an IPO has been mishandled on its debut (remember GCT? Wasn’t even supported for trading on WeBull after having handed out allocations through WeBull’s IPO Center requests!).

On the bright side, it appears that we DO have at least one confirmed, standard IPO this week, and I’m excited to review it.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Laser Photonics (LASE) – September 30, 2022 | 3M Shares

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

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Harley Davidson Spins Off it’s EV Division Visa SPAC Merger

Harley Davidson Spins Off it’s EV Division Visa SPAC Merger

By Jonathan Michael | September 25, 2022

IPO Warriors Premium | Special Edition: Community Content
Harley Davidson Spins Off it’s EV Division Visa SPAC Merger

I’ve always insisted that the IPO Warriors platform is not really about me as an individual, but is rather, a community of IPO trading enthusiasts ranging from novice to expert level individuals that includes traders, financial managers, brokers, and even underwriters. I certainly don’t consider myself to be an “expert” on anything, and see myself as a hard working researcher who is constantly learning and has gained a ton of experience trading IPOs to the point where I feel I have something to offer those who are interested in a trading strategy that has been highly profitable for myself and many others.

The strength of the IPO Warriors community is indeed in the collective knowledge of it’s members, and the breath and depth of information the is ultimately channeled through the newsletters, weekly live streams, and in the Discord channels continuous to astound me. I feel fortunate to be a member of the IPOW community as the manager/administrator of this platform, and am happy to present this supplementary content provided by an esteemed IPO Warriors Premium member covering a topic that falls just outside of the scope of traditional IPOs: a SPAC that is worth paying attention to when it completes its merger next week:

Contributed by Johnathan Michael
Follow on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/JMTradezxcii

LVW-Harley Davidson LiveWire EV-

Date: September 27 2022 |
Float: Est 5M shares
Price Range:
Pre Merger under IMPX- Current price as of writing $8
Offering Size: $40M
Industry: EV/ESG

Overview: Harley Davidson (HOG) has decided to take their EV Brand LiveWire public via a SPAC merger. I am expecting a large number of redemptions but do not anticipate this being a microfloat. Expecting a relatively small float though around 5M for the initial IPO kickoff date on Tuesday, Sept. 27th. THIS IS OPTIONABLE- a bonus to some SPAC IPOs, which allows you to control your risk while gaining exposure via “allocation” in the form of pre-merge availability under Ticker IMPX. Please note: Ticker changes can cause issues at brokers, you may not have immediate access to shares. If you want to “play it as it lies” I suggest waiting until the day of the ticker change as there is rarely a problem with buying, only selling shares you held pre merge. This is why I like options.

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 19 – September 23, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 19 – September 23, 2022

September 21, 2022

Alright, so I had prepared most of the newsletter on Monday, and then Tuesday came along and it appears that NASDAQ has put the low-float IPO game into an ice bath, so we’re unlikely to have any IPOs debut this week (wah, wah, wah-wah)… but let’s not over-react quite yet. What we’ve heard so far is that underwriters have been asked to provide the names and email addresses of the individuals to whom they are allocating shares, and the underwriters are struggling to provide such information due to the fact that they can’t allocate shares until they get NASDAQ approval to proceed with the IPO allocations.

I have received some insights from one broker who provided me with the following information based on a conversation he had with a representative from U.S. Initial Listings at NASDAQ (I’ve been asked to write this in my own language, so this is not a direct quote, but adheres to the material content he provided):

Nasdaq is, indeed, in the process of making some new rules – so they are unlikely approve any listing application (except for SPAC listings) in the next 2-3 weeks. There is no specific time for the suspension, and no one knows exactly how long it will last. They don’t know, at this point, what new rules will be added, and any rules MAY require the SEC’s approval, which might add further delays. They did not provide specifics about what would constitute a “small offering”, but indicated that the suspension would primarily focus on these types of deals. NASDAQ will be watching the situation closely as they prepare new proposed rules, which could affect the offering terms of ensuing deals.

So what can we take away from this? Well, for starters, we can likely pull our allocation requests and either sit on those funds or wait until we hear further updates on the situation.

We can also assume that the Chinese money-moving machine isn’t about to just sit back and wait to see if NASDAQ gives them the green light to resume their goals of transferring money out of China. I’m looking at recent IPOs, secondary offerings, SPACs, and other vehicles that may be potential backup plans for these objectives.

But perhaps the most likely scenario for these deals to find the light of day, is for them to simply list on the AMEX. Anyway, I’ll be providing updates on the situation as I hear anything tangible.

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As for Premium Membership Subscriptions, we’re starting to approach having 100 Premium Subscribers in just the first month since launching the IPO Warriors Premium Membership Platform.

Once we reach 100 Premium Members, I plan to increase the price for new subscriber by roughly 20% for both Annual and Monthly Memberships.
So if you want to lock in the best pricing that will ever be offered, you should consider subscribing before this opportunity gets claimed by others.

I am currently running a promotion to receive 45% off the Annual membership through September 30, 2022 – don’t miss out!

https://ipowarriors.com/ipo-warriors-premium/

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IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 12 – September 16, 2022

IPO Warriors IPO and LPX Preview for September 12 – September 16, 2022

September 13, 2022

We have finally reached a point in the year where bulge bracket banks have decided to bring some mainstream IPOs to market: which is a good sign of at least a temporary reprieve in the ongoing slump that has beaten down the market since the start of the year, but far from a sign that there aren’t further down-slides ahead. Regarding the maintream IPOs on the calendar for this week, we tend to see the ‘first-out-of-the-gate’ mainstream IPOs to be priced at a level where there is minimal downside risk to institutional investors, and the pressure for underwriters to avoid a significant drop off the debut is relatively high. I interpret this as reduced risk, but am not necessarily convinced that retail traders are particularly excited about mainstream deals coming to the table right now, as there is far more interest in the low-float names on the calendar this week.

I believe that we may have reached an inflection point in the low-float IPO market with last week’s relatively tame debut of YOSH, and will be approaching this week’s lineup with a bit more caution, both in terms of the allocation requests I placed, and how I am approaching the debut setups of each IPO. I feel that we may have reached a point in the hype cycle around these names where retail has gotten a bit over-heated and ahead of itself, with front-run positions being overloaded while ignoring fundamental risks in the structure of the deals – let alone, no consideration for where the shares are being allocated or any ‘color’ on the deals from sources closer to the books.

We are also seeing what may be SEC scrutiny on some of the Chinese/Stealth IPOs, causing delays in debut that could be a portent of the end of the current run of insanely priced debut premiums that combined untempered hype with shady float manipulations. It would be an unfortunate end to a highly lucrative trade setup, though it does seem that the manipulators of these schemes will find ways to work around any regulatory scrutiny one way or another, and we’ll be on the lookout for these opportunities.

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This Week’s IPOs:

  • Wearable Devices (WLDS) – September 13, 2022 | 3.6M Units

  • Know Labs (KNW) – September 14, 2022 | 3M Shares (uplisting*)

  • Jupiter Neurosciences (JUNS) – September 15, 2022 | 2.5M Shares

  • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) – September 15, 2022 | 80M Shares

  • Third Harmonic (THRD) – September 15, 2022 | 9M Shares

  • Lichen China (LICN) – September 16, 2022 | 6.25M Shares

* Generally I don’t cover OTC uplistings unless I see something particularly compelling about them, which is why I’m not reviewing LNKB this week. Perhaps it runs, it’s lowish float (4.6M shares) but I understand far less about these setups and even less about bancorps, so gonna let this one pass.

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Ok, Let’s jump in:

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Lockup Period Expiration (LPX) Watch:

Most IPOs are subject to either 90 or 180 day lockup periods before insiders and shareholders who owned shares of a company prior to the IPO can sell their positions. Typically, the dilutionary effect of this event will cause a stock price to drop, as supply increases without any fundamental changes in the value of the underlying company. Many investors will wait for LPX before starting a long term position in a company.
Conversely, with low-float IPOs, we often see press releases and other announcements dropped going into, or slightly following LPX, presumably as insiders attempt to drive up the share price before they are able to exercise their warrants and sell their shares.

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